Recent Betting Trends for the Kentucky Derby

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is going down in May. Twenty of the world’s finest racing horses are ready to break the starting gates at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3, 2025 in Louisville, Kentucky. These stallions will run one and a quarter mile in the first of three Triple Crown races this year, and there’s plenty of prep races we can look at to get a better sense of each horse’s current form.

Tradition and lineage are an important part of horse racing culture, and that’s a great resource for anyone betting on the sport of kings. Wagering is a foundation of horse racing, and the long history of this sport gives us a rich set of betting trends to work with.

These trends aren’t any guarantee, but they might steer you in the right direction if you’re unsure about which horse to pick. If nothing else, these captivating trends will leave you with a greater appreciation for horse racing.

Cross the wire with these recent betting trends you need to know for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

General Kentucky Derby Trends to Consider Before Betting

Research is key when you’re picking a colt or gelding to bet on for the Kentucky Derby at betting apps for horse racing. We’ll dig deeper into some larger trends, but here’s a look at some general betting trends for the Kentucky Derby.

• Early Speed Advantage: While closers can win, horses with some early speed or those positioned in the front half of the field after the first half-mile have historically performed well. Seven of the last 15 winners were in the top three at this point.
• Fast Final Prep: A strong finish in the final prep race is often a good sign. Over the past couple of decades, a significant majority of Derby winners ran the last three furlongs of their final prep in under 38 seconds. Several 2025 contenders achieved this mark.  
• California and Florida Form: Horses that trained in California during the winter or participated in the Florida Derby have a strong recent track record in the Kentucky Derby. Several contenders in the 2025 field fit these criteria.
• Graded Stakes Winners: Horses with wins in graded stakes races leading up to the Derby tend to perform best.

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Kentucky Derby Post Position Race Trends

The Kentucky Derby race is a longer one, so while post positions can certainly play a large role in the Run for the Roses, they aren’t determinative.

That being said, some post-position trends have emerged over the years.

• Middle to Outside Posts: In recent years, with larger fields, horses breaking from post positions 5 to 15, and even wider, have seen considerable success. Since 2000, over half of the winners have come from gate 13 or higher.
• Post 5: Historically, post position 5 has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners.  
• Post 10: This post has a high win percentage and the best “in-the-money” (finishing in the top three) percentage.  
• Inside Posts (1-3): While Mystik Dan won from post 3 in 2024, historically, the win rate from the innermost posts has been lower in recent decades.
• Post 17: No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from the 17th starting gate.

Points Era (Post-2013) Trends for the Kentucky Derby

A significant majority of Kentucky Derby winners in the points era won a prep race that awarded 100 qualifying points. The Florida Derby has been a particularly productive 100-point race.

Prep races that award 100 points to the winner are generally the biggest races for horses leading up to the Kentucky Derby, so it makes sense that results in those tend to be a better barometer than the smaller ones.

Here’s a list of 100-point prep races to study before you bet on the Kentucky Derby:

• Jeff Ruby Stakes (GIII)
• Louisiana Derby (GII)
• Arkansas Derby (GI)
• Florida Derby (GI)
• Santa Anita Derby (GI)
• UAE Derby (GII)
• Wood Memorial (GII)
• Blue Grass (GI)

Longshot Bet Trends in the Kentucky Derby

Don’t completely disregard longshots in your exotic bets. The Kentucky Derby has seen some massive upsets, and longshots frequently hit the trifecta and superfecta.

The mid-2010s (from 2014-18, specifically) saw a run of favorites make the winner’s circle, as Always Dreaming (9-to-2) had the longest odds for a winner in a five-year stretch.

That was immediately followed, however, by quite a run for longshots in the Kentucky Derby. From 2019-24, Authentic’s 2018 win represents the shortest odds (8-to-1). In that stretch, you also have Rich Strike, which famously won the 2022 Derby after going off at 80-to-1 odds, paying out $163.60 on a $2 win bet.

Even when longshots aren’t winning, however, they’re paying off show bets and place bets, making them very valuable adds to your trifecta and superfecta bets.

Important Betting Considerations for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Here are some trends related to this year’s field to watch out for ahead of the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

• Keep an eye on horses like Journalism, who has won his last four races, including major prep races in California.  
• Consider horses exiting the Florida Derby, such as Tappan Street and Sovereignty.
• Note horses with fast final prep race times, including Luxor Cafe.
• Be aware of the historical trends regarding post positions as the draw approaches on Saturday, April 26th.

Get Ahead of the Pack with Inside Knowledge

There’s still some time until the 2025 Kentucky Derby, which means you still have time to get caught up on all the knowledge you need to bet with confidence. For further reading on this topic, check out our tips for Kentucky Derby betting .

If you’re new to horse racing and still have a few questions we’ve got you covered! We’ll teach you how to read a racing program along with explaining horse racing jargon. Feeling overwhelmed? read this horse betting 101 guide to get the lay of the land and understand the basics. There’s a ton of considerations unique to horse racing that you’ll have to factor in, and you’ve got to do your homework if you’re hoping to boost your bankroll betting on the ponies.

And remember, check back here as we update these trends leading up to the big race!