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Quarterback Passing Yards Over/Unders & Best Bets for 2022 NFL Season
By Robert Duff in NFL Football
Published:
- Quarterback Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is given an over/under of 4600.5 in NFL passing yardage for the 2022 season
- Herbert (5,014 yards) was second overall in the league in this category last season
- Defending NFL passing yardage champion Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is slotted in at at a total of 4520.5 yards
In two seasons, quarterback Justin Herbert has taken incremental steps up the NFL passing yardage pecking order. As a rookie, the Los Angeles Chargers passer finished sixth in the league in this department. Last season, he moved up to second overall in passing yardage.
For the 2022 NFL season, oddsmakers are projecting Hebert with a passing yardage total of 4,600.5 yards. That’s the highest total afforded to any NFL starting quarterback.
2022 NFL Passing Yardage Over/Under Odds
| Player (Team) | Total Yards | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (Chargers) | 4600.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Matthew Stafford (Rams) | 4550.5 | -126 | -102 |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | 4550.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Tom Brady (Buccaneers) | 4520.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Dad Prescott (Cowboys) | 4320.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Derek Carr (Raiders) | 4350.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | 4000.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Joe Burrow (Bengals) | 4350.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | 4320.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Russell Wilson (Broncos) | 4050.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Kirk Cousins (Vikings) | 4150.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | 3950.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Jamies Winston (Saints) | 3600.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Mac Jones (Patriots) | 3750.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Ryan Tannehill (Titans) | 3500.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | 3800.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Carson Wentz (Commanders) | 3450.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Jalen Hurts (Eagles) | 3450.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Baker Mayfield (Panthers) | 3600.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Davis Mills (Texans) | 3450.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Lamar Jackson (Ravens) | 3500.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Zach Wilson (Jets) | 3500.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Daniel Jones (Giants) | 3500.5 | -112 | -112 |
Odds as of July 21 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Get this FanDuel Sportsbook promo code before making your NFL bets
Defending NFL passing yardage champion Tom Brady is set at a total of 4520.5 yards. Which QBs will go over their totals? Who are the best bets to go under?
Let’s take a look at that.
All but one QB is set with odds of -112 whether they go over or under their total. At that betting line, no matter which way you play it you’ll be given an implied probability of victory of 52.83%. Wager $10 on those odds and a successful wager will see you pocket a payout of $18.90.
Herbert the Best Passing Yardage Over Bet
As an NFL rookie in 2020, Herbert saw action in 15 games and passed for 4,336 yards. In doing so, he became just the fourth rookie in NFL history to go over 4,000 passing yards for the season.
The 2021 campaign saw Herbert make a spirited run at the NFL passing yardage championship. The Chargers passer finished the season with 5,014 yards through the air. That was the second-highest total in the league.
The 2022 AFC West is set to be the 1st division in NFL history to have 4 QBs with a 90+ career passer rating entering a season (min. 500 pass attempts)
Career Passer Rating:
✔️ Patrick Mahomes: 105.8
✔️ Russell Wilson: 101.8
✔️ Justin Herbert: 97.9
✔️ Derek Carr: 92.4 pic.twitter.com/WAzIyB2Ps4— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) July 19, 2022
His combined total of 9,350 in passing yardage is the NFL record for a QB through his first two seasons in the league. Herbert will be looking to get LA into the playoffs and perhaps unseat the Kansas City Chiefs as AFC West champs. He figures to be airing out of the football. Take the over on his total all day long.
Pick: Justin Herbert over 4,600.5 yards passing (-112)
Brady Is a Passing Fancy
He’ll be 45 this season. Tom Brady should be regressing. That’s just how normal human life cycles work.
In case you hadn’t noticed, Brady isn’t a normal human. Perhaps Ponce de Leon’s elusive fountain of youth is actually located in Tampa Bay and Brady has discovered its whereabouts.
Most folks go to Florida to live out their years. Going to Florida appears to be injecting life into Brady’s years.
Every year JLo has gotten married Tom Brady won a championship 🤯
The Bucs are +700 to win SB LVII pic.twitter.com/j1QEXrJQ9y
— Hard Rock Bet (@HardRockBet) July 20, 2022
In the two seasons since he moved from the New England Patriots to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brady has accounted for 9,949 passing yards. He led the NFL in passing yardage last year, compiling 5,316 yards. He’s the third betting choice at +950 in the NFL MVP odds. One bettor even wagered $11,050 on Brady winning the MVP.
Oddsmakers are setting Brady’s 2022 passing yardage total at 4,520.5. He’s gone over that number both years with the Bucs and in three of the past five seasons.
A shrewd play in NFL betting strategies is to never bet against Brady.
Pick: Tom Brady over 4,520.5 yards passing (-112)
Lawrence Will Live Up to the Hype
On the surface, Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season with the Jacksonville Jaguars was underwhelming. However, taking into consideration factors such as the 37 passes dropped by his receivers – second-most in the NFL – and operating under the gong show that was the brief Urban Meyer era at the helm of the Jaguars – that Lawrence passed for 3,641 yards is actually somewhat impressive.
Most Yards Lost to Drops by QB – 2021
1) Trevor Lawrence, 292 yards (41 drops)
2) Tom Brady, 279 yards (31 drops)
3) Josh Allen, 272 yards, (34 drops)#NFL | #NFLTwitter | #Jaguars pic.twitter.com/uQxqEeU0Vn— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) July 20, 2022
He’s pegged for a total of 3,800.5 yards this season. With an improved receiving corps and a legit NFL coaching staff designing the offense, the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft should easily exceed those expectations.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence over 3,800.5 yards passing (-112)
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Robert Duff
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
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