Reds vs Pirates Odds, Lines & Picks (Sep. 27)
By John Perrotto in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Pirates are -115 home favorites over the Reds on Tuesday night
- Hunter Greene (4-13, 4.91) will start for the Reds against the Pirates’ Mitch Keller (5-12, 3.99)
- A look at the Reds vs Pirates matchup and odds can be found below with a pick
Two of the worst teams in the major leagues square off when the Cincinnati Reds visit the Pittsburgh Pirates at 6:35 p.m. ET Tuesday in the middle game of a three-game series at PNC Park.
The Pirates (57-97, 30-46 home) beat the Reds 8-3 on Monday night and have won two of their last three games following an eight-game losing streak. The Reds (60-94, 29-47 road) lost for the 14th time in their last 18 games.
Reds vs Pirates Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | -105 | -1.5 (+165) | Over 7 (-115) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -115 | +1.5 (-200) | Under 7 (-105) |
Odds as of September 26th at BetMGM.
The Pirates are -115 favorites and have a 53.49% implied win probability.
There is a 30% chance of scattered showers right around scheduled first pitch. The weather forecast also calls for 56 degrees at gametime and a low of 46 with west wind at 5-7 mph.
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Probable Pitchers
Rookie Hunter Greene (4-13, 4.91) is scheduled to pitch for the Reds against the Pirates’ Mitch Keller (5-12, 3.99). Both will be working on four days of rest.
Greene vs Keller
| 4-13 | Record | 5-12 |
| 4.91 | ERA | 3.99 |
| 4.01 | xERA | 4.18 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| 3.32 | SO/W | 2.33 |
Greene is 0-1 with a 1.64 ERA in two starts since being on the injured list from Aug. 2-Sept. 16 with a strained right shoulder.
Greene lost to the Milwaukee Brewers last Thursday at home. He allowed two runs on three hits in five innings with eight strikeouts and two walks.
Hunter Greene has thrown 42 pitches of 100+ MPH through five innings tonight pic.twitter.com/hck31vuOY7
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 18, 2022
This will be Greene’s second start against the Pirates and the first was memorable for both good and bad reasons. Greene did not allow a hit in 7.1 innings May 15 at PNC Park but took the loss when he was charged with one run.
On the road this season, Greene has a 2-7 record and 4.62 ERA in 12 starts. He is 2-10 with a 4.52 ERA in 14 starts at night. The Reds are just 5-17 in Greene’s starts.
Keller is 1-4 in his last seven starts despite a 3.19 ERA. He had a tough-luck loss to the Chicago Cubs last Thursday at home when he gave up two runs and four hits in six innings while striking out seven and walking two.
In 10 career starts against the Reds, Keller is 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA.
Mitch Keller, K'ing the Side on Sliders. pic.twitter.com/ouHAeFfeWT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 22, 2022
Keller has gone 1-7 with a 3.86 ERA at home this season in 15 games (14 starts). He has a 5-7 record and 4.61 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) in the nighttime. The Pirates are 10-17 when Keller toes the slab.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Reds Batters | Batting Average vs Mitch Keller |
|---|---|
| Matt Reynolds | 1.000 |
| Aristides Aquino | .667 |
| Jonathan India | .500 |
| Austin Romine | .500 |
| Kyle Farmer | .462 |
| TJ Friedl | .167 |
| Jose Barrero | .000 |
| Pirates Batters | Batting Average vs Hunter Greene |
| Rodolfo Castro | .000 |
| Ben Gamel | .000 |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | .000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | .000 |
| Jack Suwinski | .000 |
The Reds’ Kyle Farmer is 6 for 13 (.462) against Keller with one double while Jonathan India is 3 for 6 with a double and three walks.
Reds vs Pirates Betting Trends
Jack Suwinski’s two-run double started a four-run seventh inning that snapped a 2-2 tie and lifted the Pirates to the win Monday night.
Fellow rookie Oneil Cruz had four hits for the Pirates. Suwinski had a pair of doubles and Ke’Bryan Hayes and Kevin Newman also had two hits.
Jack-Jack for the lead!! pic.twitter.com/ySeICtsNse
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) September 27, 2022
The Reds’ Aristides Aquino had a solo homer among his two hits.
Reds second baseman Donovan Solano missed his fourth straight game with an eye infection and is day to day.
The Pirates are 10-7 against the Reds this season, including 5-3 in Pittsburgh. That comes after Cincinnati went 20-9 versus Pittsburgh combined in the 2020 and 2021 season.
CIN vs PIT Last 10 Games
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/26/22 | Pirates | Reds | PIT, 8-3 |
| 9/14/22 | Reds | Pirates | PIT, 10-4 |
| 9/13/22 (2) | Reds | Pirates | PIT, 1-0 |
| 9/13/22 (1) | Reds | Pirates | PIT, 6-1 |
| 9/12/22 | Reds | Pirates | PIT, 6-3 |
| 8/21/22 | Pirates | Reds | CIN, 9-5 |
| 8/20/22 | Pirates | Reds | CIN, 10-1 |
| 8/19/22 | Pirates | Reds | PIT, 5-4 |
| 7/7/22 (2) | Reds | Pirates | CIN, 5-1/td> |
| 7/7/22 (1) | Reds | Pirates | PIT, 4-2 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction
Two pitchers with poor won-loss records are having strong finishes to the season. Considering Greene didn’t allow a hit in his first start against the Pirates, let’s ride with him here.
Pick: Reds ML (-105)
Sports Writer
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
