NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Chiefs vs Raiders Week 18
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Las Vegas getting 58% of the spread money in Chiefs vs Raiders public betting splits ahead of Week 18 tilt
- Over 52.5 is garnering 76% of the handle and 62% of the tickets
- See below for a comprehensive breakdown of the Chiefs vs Raiders public betting splits and key trends
The AFC’s top seed is at stake today when the Chiefs visit the Raiders. KC can lock up a first-round bye and home-field advantage for at least the Divisional Round with a victory and can become the NFL’s first 14-game winner in the process. Read on for Chiefs vs Raiders public betting splits and key trends.
Online sportsbooks are expecting a convincing Chiefs victory, but the betting public appears to disagree. Las Vegas is actually drawing the majority of the spread wagers and handle per the NFL public betting trends, and that’s caused a small line move in the Raiders’ favor.
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Chiefs vs Raiders ATS Betting Splits
Las Vegas is currently a 9-point underdog, after reaching +9.5 earlier in the week. At the new number, the Raiders are garnering 58% of the spread wagers, and 56% of the ATS tickets.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been elite at winning games both on the road and within the division, but covering big numbers away from KC has been an issue.
As noted in the Chiefs vs Raiders picks, KC is just 3-8 ATS as 7+ point favorites on the road with Mahomes under center. They’ve failed to cover in five straight instances, including twice over the last four weeks.
.@Chiefs -9.5 at Raiders on Saturday.
Mahomes as a favorite of 7 or more points is 17-23-1 (43%) ATS – least profitable QB since coming into the league.
Including 3-8 ATS as road favorite of 7+ pts per @Bet_Labs.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 6, 2023
Kansas City is tied for the second-worst cover rate in the league at 5-10-1, and is an abysmal 1-10 ATS versus AFC opponents. They failed to cover as the 7-point chalk earlier this season against Las Vegas, beating the Raiders by only a single point.
Las Vegas, on the other hand, has covered in five of its last six home games, most recently putting a major scare into San Francisco in Week 17. The Raiders took the Niners to OT as 10-point ‘dogs, hanging 34 points on the league’s number one defense per DVOA.
Kansas City vs Las Vegas Total Betting Splits
Total-wise, the line is currently sitting at 52.5, but don’t expect that number to last until kickoff. That’s because money is pouring in on the over. 76% of all money wagered on the total is backing over 52.5, and that handle is coming from 62% of the over/under tickets.
Each of these teams’ last five meetings have exceeded 54 points, with KC putting up at least 30 points on its own each time. The Chiefs rank number one on offense per DVOA, and number one in the NFL in expected points per play.
The Raiders, on the other hand, boast the league’s 31st-ranked defense per DVOA and have been shredded by Mahomes in the past. Since 2019, the NFL MVP odds frontrunner is averaging 323 passing yards per game versus Las Vegas. He’s thrown more TD passes against them than any other franchise, and should be your top target in the Chiefs vs Raiders player props.
Patrick Mahomes Last 5 Games vs Raiders
| CMP-ATT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|
| 29-43 | 292 | 4 |
| 20-24 | 258 | 2 |
| 35-50 | 406 | 5 |
| 34-45 | 348 | 2 |
| 22-43 | 340 | 2 |
Also working in favor of the over is an underwhelming KC defense and a resurgent Las Vegas attack led by newly appointed starter Jarrett Stidham. The former Patriots backup threw for 365 yards and 3 TD in his first career start last week against San Francisco and should find continued success against the Chiefs.
KC has allowed at least 23 points in six straight road games, and in all five of their divisional games so far this season.
Chiefs vs Raiders Moneyline Splits
As far as the moneyline market goes, the action overwhelmingly favors KC. The Chiefs currently boast -435 odds to win straight up, so you have to figure most of the action is tied up in moneyline parlays.
Simply betting on KC to beat divisional opponents, especially on the road, has been a virtual lock during the Mahomes era. The Chiefs are 26-3 with Mahomes versus divisional foes, including a perfect 15-0 on the road.
https://twitter.com/ericeager_/status/1611040258476359684
Mahomes has lost just once to Las Vegas in nine career starts, and will likely get speedster Mecole Hardman back in the lineup per the Chiefs vs Raiders injury report. Hardman hasn’t played since Week 9 due to an abdominal injury, but the KC offense functions more efficiently when he’s out there.
The Chiefs average 30 points with Hardman, compared to 28 points without. They’ve reached 40 points three times this season, with Hardman being active for all three contests.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
