2026 Cy Young Odds Tracker – Tarik Skubal & Paul Skenes Open as Cy Young Favorites

• This page tracks the average odds to win the 2026 AL and NL Cy Young Awards
• Tarik Skubal (AL) and Paul Skenes (NL) open as favorites to repeat as Cy Young winners in 2026
• See where the MLB Cy Young odds sit now and track how they change after Opening Day

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This page tracks the odds to win the 2026 American League and National League Cy Young awards. The graphs below are calculated by collecting and the averaging odds taken from our most-trusted online sportsbooks. You can track how the odds change throughout the season and find the best current odds in the Cy Young Award tables.

American League / National League

2026 American League Cy Young Odds

Odds to Win AL Cy Young

AL Cy Young odds above are updated every 15-60 minutes from top sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the AL Cy Young.   

AL Cy Young Award Race Timeline

• December 3 – Can he make it three in a row? The Tigers’ Tarik Skubal (+380) opens as the favorite to win the AL CY Young award in 2026, but not far behind is the Red Sox’s Garrett Crochet (+400), last season’s runner-up, and the Royals’ Cole Ragans (+900).

2026 National League Cy Young Odds

Odds to Win NL Cy Young

NL Cy Young odds above are updated every 15-60 minutes. 

NL Cy Young Award Race Timeline

• December 3 – What will Paul Skenes do for an encore? After an electric sophomore reason that saw the Pirates’ ace unanimously win his first NL Cy Young, Skenes (+350) opens as a big favorite to repeat, ahead of Dodgers’ World Series hero Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+475) and the Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez (+900).

AL Cy Young Winners by Team

The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers lead the American League with seven AL Cy Young Award wins. The Red Sox’s Cy Young wins belong to Jim Lonborg (1967), Roger Clemens (1986, 1987, 1991), Pedro Martinez (1999, 2000), and Rick Porcello (2016), and the Tigers’ wins belong to Denny McLain (1968, 1969), Willier Hernandez (1984), Justin Verlander (2011), Max Scherzer (2013), and Tarik Skubal (2024, 2025).

To date, the Texas Rangers are the only AL team to never have won the Cy Young, but they’ve certainly come close. Ferguson Jenkins (1974) and Yu Darvish (2012) both finished second in voting, while Nolan Ryan (1989) finished fifth.

NL Cy Young Winners by Team

The only NL club to miss out on a Cy Young win are the Colorado Rockies. The closest the Rockies have come to winning the NL’s pitching award was in 2010, when Ubaldo Jimenez finished third in voting, behind Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright.

The tables above extend back to 1956, when just one award was given to players in both leagues. It also includes wins in both leagues by the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers, who respectively moved to their current leagues in 2013 and 1998, as well as the lone win for the Montreal Expos in 1997 before their relocation to Washington, DC.

Pitchers with Multiple Cy Young Awards

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AL Cy Young Contenders Comparison

NL Cy Young Contenders Comparison

🏆 The Cy Young Formula: What Statistics Matter Most

After analyzing the last 10 AL and NL Cy Young Award winners (2016-2025), clear patterns emerge about which statistics are most crucial in determining baseball’s most prestigious pitching honor.

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📊 The Dominant Statistic: ERA

ERA is king when it comes to Cy Young voting. Among the 20 winners analyzed:

• 70% (14/20) led their league in ERA
• 90% (18/20) finished in the top 3
• 100% (20/20) finished in the top 5
• Average ERA rank: 1.9

This is by far the most consistent predictor. Winners averaged a 2.30 ERA, with a remarkable range from Trevor Bauer’s 1.73 (2020 NL) to Rick Porcello’s 3.15 (2016 AL).

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⚡ The Rising Importance of Strikeouts

Strikeouts have become increasingly critical in the modern game:

• 35% (7/20) led their league in strikeouts
• 80% (16/20) finished in the top 3
• 90% (18/20) finished in the top 5
• Average K rank: 2.7

Winners averaged 226 strikeouts with an elite 11.06 K/9 rate. Notable: Tarik Skubal won back-to-back AL Cy Youngs (2024-25) with 228 and 241 strikeouts respectively, while Justin Verlander’s 300 K season (2019) remains the gold standard.

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🎯 WHIP: The Underrated Metric

WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) is nearly as important as ERA:

• 50% (10/20) led their league in WHIP
• 90% (18/20) finished in the top 3
• 90% (18/20) finished in the top 5
• Average WHIP rank: 2.2

Winners averaged a stellar 0.940 WHIP, demonstrating exceptional command and limiting baserunners is crucial.

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📉 The Declining Value of Wins

Perhaps most surprisingly, wins matter less than ever:

• Only 45% (9/20) led their league in wins
• Only 50% (10/20) finished in the top 3
• 75% (15/20) finished in the top 5
• Average W rank: 5.4 (worst of all major categories)

This represents a major shift in Cy Young voting philosophy. Recent winners like:

• Paul Skenes (2025 NL): 10-10 record, ranked 16th in wins
• Jacob deGrom (2018-19 NL): Won with 10 and 11 wins respectively
• Corbin Burnes (2021 NL): 11-5, ranked 14th in wins

These pitchers won despite modest win totals because they dominated in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP.

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🔄 Command Metrics: K/BB Ratio

While important, K/BB ratio is more of a supporting stat:

• 20% (4/20) led their league in K/BB
• 70% (14/20) finished in the top 3
• 85% (17/20) finished in the top 5
• Average K/BB rank: 4.2

Winners averaged a 5.55 K/BB ratio with excellent 2.14 BB/9 control.

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📏 Innings Pitched: Durability Still Matters

Workload remains relevant but isn’t decisive:

• 25% (5/20) led their league in IP
• 45% (9/20) finished in the top 3
• 65% (13/20) finished in the top 5
• Average IP rank: 5.7

Winners averaged 186.8 innings pitched, showing voters still value durability, though it’s less critical than dominance metrics.

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🏅 The Triple Crown: Rare But Decisive

Only 3 of the 20 winners led their league in all three traditional categories (W, ERA, K):

• Tarik Skubal (2024 AL): 18-4, 2.39 ERA, 228 K
• Shane Bieber (2020 AL): 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 122 K
• Chris Sale (2024 NL): 18-3, 2.38 ERA, 225 K

These pitchers won unanimously or near-unanimously, showing that dominating all three categories still creates an unbeatable case.

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🔍 League Differences

AL vs NL winners show interesting contrasts:

AL winners tend to have better win-loss records and command, while NL winners show slightly better ERA and strikeout totals.

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💡 The Modern Cy Young Profile

To win a Cy Young Award in today’s game, a pitcher needs:

1. Elite ERA (sub-2.50, ideally leading the league)
2. High strikeout totals (220+, top 3 in league)
3. Outstanding WHIP (under 1.00, top 3 in league)
4. Strong command (K/BB above 5.0)
5. Adequate durability (180+ IP)
6. Wins are a bonus (but 10-15 wins is sufficient with elite peripherals)

The shift from wins to advanced metrics reflects baseball’s analytical evolution. Voters now recognize that ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP better measure a pitcher’s true dominance, regardless of team support or bullpen performance.

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🎯 Bottom Line

ERA is the single most important statistic for Cy Young consideration, followed closely by strikeouts and WHIP. The traditional emphasis on wins has dramatically decreased, with voters now prioritizing metrics that measure individual dominance over team-dependent outcomes. A pitcher who leads their league in ERA and finishes top-3 in strikeouts and WHIP is virtually guaranteed to win the award, regardless of their win-loss record.

Cy Young Stat Ranks

Cy Young Key Stats

Cy Young Winner Averages

Archived Cy Young Odds:

• 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

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