2026 NFL Power Rankings Based on Opening Betting Lines

Warning: these are not your usual NFL power rankings. Instead of opinion, I choose to use betting lines provided by the sportsbooks to fill out my NFL power rankings at SBD.

Sportsbooks released the opening betting odds for the 2026 NFL season immediately after the schedule was released on May 14. These spreads provide a great look into the expectations for each team this season, and I believe a great tool to use for power rankings. I have taken these spreads and calculated each team’s sum of spreads for all 17 games. This objective, quantitative measure is perfect for putting out some NFL power rankings as we prepare for the 2026 NFL season to kick off.

This differs slightly from a traditional power ranking, since it factors in NFL strength of schedule and is also rooted in numbers instead of pure speculation. Using a consistent method each year also allows us to draw trends based on past results, which you’ll see below. See where your favorite team ranks below!

2026 NFL Power Rankings | Past Power Rankings | Trends from Power Rankings

To be clear, these are opening lines from the offseason for every week. We will not consider what the lines open at ahead of each week during the season. Obviously, with the way NFL spreads work – the favorite is giving up points – the more negative the ATS +/- is, the better the team is expected to be.

2026 NFL Power Rankings

This year’s NFL power rankings look much different than last year’s, and the range of my ATS +/- calculation is even wider than last year. Last year’s difference between the first and worst-ranked teams was 202 points, which was already up from the 162 from the year prior, whereas this year’s difference is 221.5 points. The top team listed in my 2026 NFL Power Rankings is last year’s NFC-runner up: the Los Angeles Rams. LA is the only team in the NFL who opened as the favorite in more than 14 games this season, but it’s worth noting their ATS +/- is the worst we’ve seen from the top-ranked team since 2015 – there was still just a 16-game schedule at that point, and they did not release any odds for the final week.

The Rams stand well above the rest of the league in my NFL power rankings, having a ten-point advantage over the second-ranked Baltimore Ravens. All of the Seahawks, Lions, and Bills are close behind the Ravens, though.

The worst-ranked team in the power rankings is the Arizona Cardinals, who are well back of the second-worst team, the Miami Dolphins. There is a 29-point gap between 31st and 32nd. In fact, this Cardinals team is appearing to be historically bad. Their ATS +/- of 145.5 is by far the worst I have seen since tracking the opening odds in 2015. The next-worst team was the 2021 Texans, who ended up going 4-13 that season. It’s also much worse than what was expected from them last year, when they ranked 15th with an even 0 ATS +/-.

Here are a couple of other teams who see themselves in a very different position than last year:

• Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins were massive underachievers last season, when they ranked 20th in my preseason Power Rankings, and they spent the offseason blowing the team up. Head coach Mike McDaniel was fired, Tua Tagovailoa was released, Jaylen Waddle was traded, and new head coach Jeff Hafley has been brought in to start the rebuild. However, their ATS +/- is 100 points worse than last season.
• Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks were not a top contender last season, as they ranked 18th in my Power Rankings and had an ATS +/- that was on the wrong side of 0. But after winning Super Bowl 60, they are now ranked 3rd entering the 2026 season, and saw their ATS +/- improve by 71.5 points.

NFL Power Rankings from Previous Seasons

Trends from ATS +/- in Past Seasons

• A team from the top four in ATS +/- has won the Super Bowl in five of the last 11 seasons
• A team from the top eight has won the Super Bowl seven of the last eight seasons
• A team from the top four in ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in eight of the last 11 seasons
• At least one team from the top three in ATS +/- has missed the playoffs in 10 of the last 11 seasons – both the Ravens and Chiefs, who were ranked second and third, respectively, missed the playoffs last season
• At least two of the top five have missed the playoffs in seven of the last 11 seasons
• The team with the worst ATS +/- has won more than five games only twice in the last 11 seasons – the Falcons in 2023 and Commanders (then-Football Team) in 2020 are the only two to conquer this feat
• The team with the best ATS +/- has only won the Super Bowl twice in the last 11 years – the Chiefs in the 2023-24 season were the most recent to win the Super Bowl as the top-ranked team
• At least two of the five worst teams in ATS +/- have gone on to lose 11+ games in 10 of the last 11 seasons – 2022 was the first time we saw this trend broken
• A team ranked between 18th and 25th of the ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in five of the last 11 seasons
• A team ranked between 18th and 25th of the ATS +/- has made their respective conference championship in six of the last 11 years
• Of the two teams with the worst ATS +/- each season, we’ve only seen two go on to make the playoffs – the 2023 Houston Texans and 2020 Washington Football Team
• Only nine teams who were in the bottom-five in ATS +/- have made the playoffs over the last 11 years (2024 Broncos, 2023 Texans and Buccaneers, 2022 Jaguars and Seahawks, 2021 Bengals, 2020 Football Team, 2018 Colts, and 2017 Rams)
• At least half of the top ten teams in ATS +/- have missed the playoffs in seven of the last 11 years

2026 NFL Predictions Based Off Power Ranking Trends

If you’re planning on betting Super Bowl futures, your apparent only real options include: the Rams, Ravens, Seahawks, Lions, Bills, 49ers, Eagles, and Bengals. You might want to steer clear of LA, though.

Trends from our power rankings also say one of the Rams, Ravens, or Seahawks will miss the playoffs. I know that’s hard to believe. It would be a very nice payout to hit, though. You can see your potential profit over in our NFL playoff odds. If you like that one, trends say one of the Lions or Bills will also miss the playoffs.

It’s also bad news for Arizona. As the team ranked 32nd in our power rankings, the trend says they won’t win more than five games in 2026 – their NFL win total is set at 4.5 as well.