2023 College Football FCS Season Preview & Predictions – Can SDSU Repeat?

• The 2023 FCS season kicks off with a three-game mini-slate on Aug. 26
• Defending FCS champion South Dakota State is a +300 favorite to repeat after ending 2022 on a 14-game winning streak
• Read below for analysis and predictions for the 2023 FCS title contenders and players to watch

The FCS championship runs through the Dakotas, a trend that` seems certain to continue this season. South Dakota State stopped perennial power North Dakota State in a dominant run to its first title last year, and the Jackrabbits are loaded again behind preseason All-American halfback Isaiah Davis.

Fellow Missouri Valley Conference rival North Dakota State, which has won nine titles since 2011, remains in the mix, as does 2021 runner-up Montana State of the Big Sky. Perennial challengers William & Mary (CAA), Holy Cross (Patriot) and the Southern’s Samford and Furman are capable of making noise.

Let’s dive into the 2023 FCS Championship odds and make our predictions.

2023 FCS Championship Odds

As +300 favorites in the FCS Championship odds, South Dakota State has 25% implied win probability to win the title.

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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on Aug.4. Browse the top mobile sportsbook apps for FCS betting. 

Jackrabbits Are Loaded

New coach Jimmy Rogers, who stepped up from defensive coordinator after John Stiegelmeier retired, has a loaded roster that includes 18 returning starters and four preseason Athlon All-Americans, halfback Isaiah Davis foremost among them. Davis, 6’1 and 220, rushed for 1,451 yards and 15 touchdowns. He had four 100-yard games in the FCS playoffs and brings a 10-game touchdown streak into the season.

Don't forget that Isaiah Davis returns for South Dakota State this season.

Tune in. Be entertained. Trust me.pic.twitter.com/BMQhske4at

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) July 26, 2023

Quarterback Mark Gronowski suffered a left knee injury suffered five snaps into the 2020 title game (played in the spring of 2021 because of Covid) and missed the 2021 fall season, but he was as good as new last year. Gronowski passed for 2,697 yards with 26 touchdowns against five interceptions and rushed for 408 yards and 12 touchdowns. With health, the Jackrabbits could be working on a fourth straight title game appearance.

The Jacks outscored their four playoff opponents 168-66 en route to their first title last season, and preseason All-Americans left guard Mason McCormick and left tackle Garrett Greenfield are back to protect Davis and Gronowski.  Wide receiver Jaxon Janke had 60 receptions for 857 yards and nine touchdowns a season ago.

North Dakota State, Montana State Always In It

These teams are not judged by ordinary standards — playoff seeding and national championships are the barometers. North Dakota State has won four of the last six FCS titles after a five-year title run (2011-15), but the Bison enter this season under a caution. They lost eight players to FBS schools in the transfer portal, and while veteran quarterback Cam Miller engineered the national title in 2021, he scuffled last postseason.

Montana State rams the ball down your throat and dares you to stop it. The Bobcats averaged 311.9 rushing yards and 42.9 points a year ago while rotating quarterbacks Tommy Mellott (1, 068 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns) and Sean Chambers (862, 19). Mellott and Chambers also combined for 2,321 passing yards, but the lack of a passing game hurt in a 38-10  loss to North Dakota State in the 2021 title game and in a 39-18 loss to South Dakota State in the 2022 semis.

QBs Who Could Make a Difference

Samford senior Michael Hiers is a first-team All-American in many preseason polls after a breakout 2022, when he led the FCS with a 76.6 percent completion percentage. He passed for 3,544 yards and 36 touchdowns and was eighth in passing efficiency. The Bulldogs’ only regular-season loss last season was to Georgia.

https://twitter.com/LightOnSports/status/1671512405786914824

Holy Cross has a two-way threat in Matthew Sluka, who led FCS quarterbacks with 1,234 yards rushing and was seventh in the division in passing efficiency while helping the Crusaders a fourth straight Patriot League title and a trip to the national semis, where he rushed for 213 yards and passed for 125 in a 41-21 loss to South Dakota State in a game that was tied at 21 in the fourth quarter.

Incarnate Word, which lost to South Dakota State in the 2022 semifinals, lost offense-first coach G.J. Kinne but added former Texas A&M passing combo quarterback Zach Calzada and wide receiver Caleb Chapman. Calzada engineered the Aggies’ 41-38 victory over No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 19, 2021. He transferred to Auburn and missed the 2022 season because of a shoulder injury before resurfacing here.

Don’t Buck the Trend

The race does not always go the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet. South Dakota State has taken control of the FCS after playing in North Dakota State’s shadow for a decade, and the Jackrabbits not only are loaded but also have a favorable schedule that includes Montana State and North Dakota State in Brookings. The coaching change is a wild card, but it should not be a factor here.

Sprinkling a little on Holy Cross would not hurt. The highest seeds in the 16-team FCS playoffs get home field, and if Sluka and the Crusaders continue their strong play, they would be in a position to get a couple of home games. And they played SDSU even for three quarters in South Dakota a year ago.

Pick: South Dakota State (+300)