Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds, Picks & Prediction for NFL Week 4

• The Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills odds slightly favor the Bills in Sunday’s massive AFC East clash
• The Miami vs Buffalo betting splits are all over the red-hot Dolphins
• Below, see the Dolphins vs Bills picks and predictions for Oct. 1

A heavyweight tilt is on the schedule this Sunday as the Miami Dolphins (3-0, 2-0 away, 3-0 ATS) travel to Orchard Park to face the Buffalo Bills (2-1, 1-0 home, 2-1 ATS) at 1:00 pm ET.

First place in the AFC East will be on the line as will Miami’s top-seed in the AFC half of the NFL playoff bracket.

While Miami’s top-rated offense (43.3 PPG) is the talk of the football world, oddsmakers still give the hometown Bills a slight edge in the odds. Buffalo remains a 2.5-point favorite roughly 24 hours before kickoff.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds

The Dolphins vs Bills game total is sitting at a Week 4-high 53.5, which is 4.5 points more than any other total on the board this week. (Next highest is Raiders vs Chargers at 49.0.) Neither the spread nor total has moved an inch since the opening Week 4 NFL odds dropped last Sunday. The moneyline has moved minutely, with Miami growing from +120 to +122 and Buffalo shortening from -142 to -145.

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Dolphins vs Bills Injury Reports

The biggest issues for the Phins come on the offensive line. Starting are both listed as questionable are were both limited participants in practice on Thursday and Friday.

Both teams will be down a starter on defense. For the Phins, 2021 first-round pick LB Jaelan Phillips did not practice Thursday and was ruled out before practice on Friday with an oblique strain. On the Buffalo side, starting strong safety Jordan Poyer was ruled out on Friday.

The Dolphins also have two starting offensive lineman listed as questionable: left tackle Terron Armstead and starting center Connor Williams. But both are expected to play, with the former stating vigorously that he would be in the starting lineup.

No other Buffalo players were listed on the final injury report before Sunday’s showdown at Orchard Park.

Miami vs Buffalo Betting Trends

Not only are the Miami Dolphins one of just three undefeated teams remaining in the NFL (alongside the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers), they are one of just two teams that has been perfect against the spread (alongside, of all teams, the Arizona Cardinals).

Miami covered as 3-point road underdogs at LA Chargers in Week 1 with a 36-34 win, followed that up with a 24-17 win at New England as 1.5-point road favorites and then, of course, set a few records with a 70-20 demolition of Denver as 6-point home chalk.

Miami’s +59 point differential is the best in the league, though only three points better than the Bills, who sit second at +56.

After dropping their Week 1 game at the New York Jets (22-16 OT) as 2.5-point road favorites, Buffalo has manhandled its last two opponents. In Week 2, they breezed past Las Vegas (38-10) as 7.5-point favorites. In Week 3, they nearly shoutout Washington (37-3) as 5-point road chalk.

The NFL public betting splits for Week 4 show the public absolutely hammering the Dolphins, both straight-up and ATS. As of the wee hours of Saturday morning, Miami had attracted 76% of ATS handle and 88% of moneyline handle. Meanwhile the public was also heavily siding with the over, putting 72% of game-total handle on over 53.5

Dolphins vs Bills Prediction

The fact that the NFL odds haven’t moved in Miami’s favor during the week is a testament to what oddsmakers think of the Buffalo Bills. With everyone and their cat rushing to bet Tua Tagovailoa – the new favorite in the NFL MVP odds – and the Dolphins, it would have been logical to expect the spread to shift, at least incrementally, towards the road team here.

But oddsmakers are taking a position and holding the line at Buffalo -2.5.

Buffalo has been one of the best home teams in the league over the past three seasons, going an impeccable 20-5 straight up. With the spread under a field goal and the Bills already in chase-mode after the 3-0 Dolphins, expect a playoff-type atmosphere at the always-hostile Orchard Park and a statement game from Josh Allen and company.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Pick: Bills -2.5