Free Week 5 NFL Parlay Picks – 2 Sets of NFL Parlay Predictions for Sunday

• Four teams on bye in Week 5 is cutting into our NFL parlay options a little, but there are still tons of options available
• I am offering two different NFL parlays for Week 5, one longshot and one higher-probability
• See my Week 5 NFL parlay picks below

My longshot NFL parlay last week had me absolutely devastated after the Packers came back to only lose by two points to the Vikings, when I had an alt spread of Minnesota -2.5. The other three legs from Sunday all hit, and I was left wondering how sweet it would have felt walking into MNF, only needing Will Levis to have a good game to cash an 82-1 parlay. I, (probably) as well as my friend who tailed the parlay and messaged me when Minnesota was up 28-7 to say, “the Vikings leg seems safe, right?” felt a bit of relief seeing Levis exit the game early with an injury. That would have been an awful way to lose an 82-1 NFL parlay. So, thanks Vikings (I guess).

But this is two weeks in a row now that I have come dangerously close to cashing my longshot NFL parlay. Sadly, I have no explanation as to why the Cardinals ruined my higher-probability NFL parlay because they couldn’t put up 21+ points against an awful defense. It especially stung watching Arizona get the ball back with 4:23 on the clock, where a touchdown (with at least the XP) cashes the parlay, only for them to run the ball up the middle on seven of the eight plays, with the lone exception being a run to the right side. It was a little cowardly if you ask me, a man whose parlay went down the drain as a result.

In spite of the hurt from last week, I’m back with another set of NFL parlays for Week 5 of the 2024-25 season. My longshot NFL parlay this week comes in just shy of 72-1 odds.

Longshot NFL Parlay | Higher-Probability NFL Parlay

Under each table containing the NFL parlays below will be some brief justification for each leg. Let’s dive in!

Week 5 Longshot NFL Parlay

After putting this parlay together at each major sports betting app, I have concluded the best place to play it is at DraftKings for +7173 odds. You can get 73-1 odds at Caesars, but you have to play Dontayvion Wicks at 70+ receiving yards. If you do choose that option, be sure to use Caesars’ NFL parlay boost to sweeten the payout even further.

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The first two legs of my longshot NFL parlay come from the Colts vs Jaguars game. I discussed why I liked Indianapolis to win this game in my Week 5 NFL moneyline picks article. With it sounding very likely that Joe Flacco will start in place of Anthony Richardson, I feel even more confident in them winning and love taking an alt line of Colts -2.5.

The other leg from this game, Josh Downs for 60+ receiving yards, is also the result of Flacco likely to start. Downs exploded last week, turning his nine targets into eight receptions for 82 yards. All but one of those targets and 11 of those yards came from Flacco. The 39-year-old pocket-passer loves a guy like Downs, who plays mostly out of the slot, gets in and out of his routes quickly, and creates good separation. I like Downs to see a similar amount of targets this week against a Jaguars defense that’s giving up the third-most net yards per pass attempt in the NFL, and should have no problem racking up 60+ yards.

In two games with Andy Dalton under center, Diontae Johnson has recorded 122 and 83 receiving yards, respectively. I appreciate the Bears, his Week 5 opponent, have been pretty good against the pass this season, allowing the eighth-fewest net yards per pass attempt, but I have to wonder how much of that has been their opponents. Chicago got Will Levis in Week 1, who only threw for 127 yards, Anthony Richardson in Week 3, who only managed 167 yards through the air (while missing wide open receivers all over the field), and just saw Matthew Stafford, without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, throw for 224 yards against them. In Week 2, Chicago played the Texans and CJ Stroud threw for 260 yards, with 135 of those going to Nico Collins. I’m not here to say Diontae Johnson is as good as Nico Collins, but Johnson does create separation and Andy Dalton is no stranger to the quick passing game. Johnson for over 70.5 receiving yards shouldn’t be a problem, especially if Carolina finds themselves playing with a negative game script.

Diontae Johnson in two games with Andy Dalton:
🔹 15 receptions
🔹 205 receiving yards
🔹 2 TDs
🔹 23.75 fantasy PPG

He is a top __ fantasy WR going forward. Fill in the blank. pic.twitter.com/T2NV6See31

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 1, 2024

I, like seemingly many others, liked Dontayvion Wicks’ Week 5 outlook after we knew Christian Watson would not be suiting up. But now that Romeo Doubs has been suspended and will also miss this game, I love Wicks against the Rams. LA is allowing 8.1 net yards per pass attempt, the worst mark in the league, and any rust Jordan Love may have accumulated in his two weeks off seemed to get shaken in Green Bay’s big second half against the Vikings last week. In a game that features the highest over/under of the week (49), where his main competition for targets are Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Bo Melton, I think we see Wicks really breakout. Getting Wicks over 65.5 receiving yards at +130 is great value!

The final leg of my five-leg NFL longshot parlay comes in the Monday Night Football matchup between the Saints and Chiefs. I love Kareem Hunt to score an anytime touchdown in this game, and went into detail on why I love it in my Week 5 NFL TD scorer picks. The gist is that I believe he has already taken over Kansas City’s backfield, and I believe the Chiefs will lean on him with Rashee Rice on the IR.

Week 5 Higher Probability NFL Parlay

The best place to play this higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 5 is also DraftKings. Other sportsbooks either didn’t have alternate team totals or the milestone I wanted for Derrick Henry. You can get very close to this at -117 odds at bet365, though, if you play Dolphins under 23.5 points and Derrick henry for 50+ rushing yards. If you take Henry at the next milestone, which is 75+ rushing yards, your odds get much longer as well.

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The first leg of this parlay is Derrick Henry for 60+ rushing yards. The new Raven running back has gone over this in three of four games, only missing in Week 1, when he had by far his fewest touches of the season (just 13). Henry has rushed for 199 and 151 yards in his last two games, respectively, and is being fed in Baltimore’s offense. Up against a dangerous Bengals offense in Week 5, I like Baltimore to ensure their star RB continues to be fed, allowing them to control the tempo of the game.

The second leg is Miami under 24.5 points scored in their matchup with the Patriots. New England has only given up more than 24 points once this season, which came last week against the 49ers, as they scored 30 against them. The Patriots defense has been pretty good against the run this year, allowing just 4.0 yards per carry (7th), and I don’t believe Miami has the ability to take advantage of their struggles against the pass without Tua Tagovailoa under center. The Dolphins are last in points scored, only totaling 25 combined in the last three weeks. I appreciate this will be Huntley’s second start, but I don’t think he can run Mike McDaniel’s offense, nor does it seem McDaniel is able to adjust his scheme to fit a new QB.

The final leg is the 49ers moneyline. If you wanted to get the odds a little longer on this higher-probability parlay, I think this is the leg to play with. I would understand you wanting to take San Francisco -2.5 instead. After already dropping two games in the first four weeks, urgency is high for Kyle Shanahan and his squad. Their Week 5 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, were just embarrassed at home by the Commanders, and don’t have the defense to slow down Brock Purdy and company.