Steelers’ Super Bowl Odds after Signing Aaron Rodgers

• Aaron Rodgers’ signing in Pittsburgh has shifted the Steelers’ Super Bowl Odds
• The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016
• Keep reading for Pittsburgh’s updated Divisional and Super odds following the Metcalf trade

Aaron Rodgers isn’t ready to hang up his cleats just yet. The 41-year-old ended weeks of speculation by signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday on a one-year deal. His addition is the latest move in what’s been a busy offseason for the Steelers. The question is, does a Rodgers-quarterbacked team in the year 2025 move the needle? In my opinion, it absolutely does not.

Super Bowl 60 Odds After Steelers Sign Rodgers

Prior to the Rodgers signing, Pittsburgh’s 2026 Super Bowl odds were +4500. After the move, their price shifted to +4000. The Steelers championship price is well behind the top contenders, and at least twice as long as division rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati. I wouldn’t lay a cent on a Rodgers-backed team at this time, for a number of reasons.

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Why the Steelers Aren’t Worth Betting With Rodgers at QB

Let’s start with his play on the field. Father time has clearly caught up with him. Rodgers hasn’t had a top-10 season since 2021, his last of four MVP seasons in Green Bay. His play was trending down after the 2022 campaign with the Packers, and his entire tenure with the Jets was a failure.

No matter which metrics you look at from last season, Rodgers was a below average starting quarterback. Sure, he was coming off a torn Achilles, but he had an entire calendar year to rehab.

Rodgers’ average intended depth of target was the lowest it’s ever been. Despite attempting shorter throws more frequently, his completion percentage was 7% lower than in his final year in Green Bay. His INT rate was twice as high as his final MVP season, while his sack percentage was one of his worst marks in a decade.

Rodgers Air Yards Per Pass Attempt – Last Four Seasons

He did improve his play slightly over the second half of the season, but those numbers were inflated by lousy competition. Before you get too excited about the Rodgers to Metcalf and Pickens connections, don’t forget he played with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams last season.

He also had Breece Hall in the backfield, and his hand picked choices at the secondary pass catching positions. What did the Jets have to show for it? The 25th ranked offense, nine spots lower than a Steelers team led by Russell Wilson

Rodgers Will Bring Too Much Off-Field Drama to Pittsburgh

This move wreaks of desperation. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016, and they’re trying to go all-in on this season to change that. The problem is, they’ve dished out a ton of money to guys who aren’t at the top of their position.

$130+ million for Metcalf, is a major overspend, especially when you consider his skillset is nearly identical to Pickens. $10 million for Darius Slay is another steep price for a corner on his last legs.

But the Rodgers signing is the icing on the cake. Not only is Pittsburgh stuck with something they’re used to, mediocre QB play, but they also have to Rodgers off-field issues. He can’t stay out of the spotlight and is quick to throw everyone else under the bus, either publicly or privately. That won’t fly with Mike Tomlin, and I can’t imagine it will take Rodgers too long to wear out his welcome.

Not only will the Steelers continue to be irrelevant in the Super Bowl conversation, their drought in the division will continue as well. Pittsburgh hasn’t won the AFC North since 2020, and is no where near as strong as the Ravens or Bengals.