2025 Kentucky Derby Weather Report: Rain Likely to Create Sloppy Track at Churchill Downs

• Rain began an hour before broadcast and is expected to continue throughout Derby day
• Officials sealed the main dirt track Friday night, but a sloppy track is expected by the 6:57 p.m. ET post time
• See the full 2025 Kentucky Derby weather report below, plus how it impacts betting

The 151st Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a muddy affair with Mother Nature playing a significant role in today’s historic race at Churchill Downs.

Rain is already coming down in Louisville, making things tricky for the 19-horse field gearing up for “the most exciting two minutes in sports.” The track officials are doing what they can to handle the situation, but both bettors and trainers have to rethink their game plans now.

With rainfall approaching half an inch expected throughout the day, we’re looking at a dramatically different Kentucky Derby than what many handicappers prepared for earlier this week.

Current Track Conditions

It started raining about an hour before the broadcast and it looks like it’s going to keep up all day during the Derby. This totally shakes things up for bettors and makes it tricky for the 19-horse lineup.

Track officials took precautionary measures Friday night by sealing the main dirt track to protect it from the incoming precipitation. The move helped preserve conditions temporarily, but with Louisville’s forecast showing a 100 percent chance of daytime rain with accumulations approaching half an inch, we’re likely looking at a sloppy track come post time.

The wet weather has already impacted morning activities, with very few Derby contenders venturing out for early training. Most connections opted to keep their horses safe and dry ahead of the 6:57 p.m. ET post time.

Impact on Undercard Races

For bettors targeting the undercard races, the turf course was still listed as firm during early broadcasts but could quickly deteriorate to yielding or soft as rainfall continues. This potential surface change puts exotic wagers like the Pick 6 at significant risk, as turf specialists might underperform or scratch altogether.

Weather Nation TV described the track as likely to be “extremely soggy” by race time. While there’s a brief window where precipitation chances drop to about 15 percent around 6 p.m. local time, the rain is expected to return shortly after the main event.

Additional Weather Factors

Adding another wrinkle to the equation, wind gusts up to 15 mph are forecasted for around post time, potentially creating even more challenging racing conditions.

This wouldn’t be the first time weather has affected this year’s festivities at Churchill Downs. Friday’s Kentucky Oaks was delayed by 12 minutes due to a severe thunderstorm warning, though favorite Good Cheer still managed to maintain her perfect 7-0 record with a victory.

How Weather Affects Race Dynamics

The sloppy track conditions dramatically alter the race dynamics, likely creating a hot early pace as jockeys push their mounts forward to avoid the dreaded mud “kickback” that comes with running behind other horses. This scenario typically favors closers who can sit off the pace and make one sustained late run.

According to early betting patterns, the Derby appears to be shaping up as a two-horse battle between the favorite Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (9-2). Journalism has impressed with four consecutive victories including the Santa Anita Derby, but the sloppy conditions could compromise his early speed if the pace gets too hot.

Top Derby Contenders in the Mud

Looking for a Kentucky Derby best bet? Check out our Picks for Win, Place & Show.

Sovereignty is considered the top closer in the field and could benefit significantly from today’s wet track. The betting public seems to agree, as he’s been heavily backed in the Kentucky Oaks/Derby double pool that grew to approximately $3 million by late Friday.

Other contenders who might appreciate the off track include Final Gambit, who could save ground along the rail and capitalize on tiring front-runners. Longshots Sandman (5-1) and Tistastic are also getting buzz as potential “mudders” who could outperform their odds in these challenging conditions.

Advice for Derby Attendees

Headed to Churchill Downs? You’ll want to pack some rain gear. It’s gonna be wet out there, and with the way the track’s shaping up, the weather might have just as much say in the winner as the horses do.

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