Final Kentucky Derby Odds 2025, Start Time + Updated Prediction

• The 2025 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 3rd
• Journalism remains the favorite at +300 odds, while Sovereignty (+450) isn’t far behind
• See the final 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, start time, plus our updated prediction with scratches

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is just hours away, with post time set for 6:57 pm ET today at Churchill Downs. After months of prep races and qualification points, we’ve reached the big moment for this talented bunch of three-year-olds.

Let’s dive into the final odds, go over the start time details, and share our updated prediction for the 151st Run for the Roses!

Final Kentucky Derby Odds 2025

The betting market has been shifting in the final hours leading up to the Derby. Here are the latest odds from TwinSpires as of Saturday afternoon:

Odds as of May 3rd at 1:00 PM ET at TwinSpires. Find the top sports betting bonus codes for your Kentucky Derby action.

Journalism still sits as the clear favorite at +300, with Sovereignty (+450) and Sandman (+500) right behind him. Two horses have been scratched from the original field – Rodriguez with a foot bruise and Grande due to a cracked heel.

Kentucky Derby Start Time 2025

The 2025 Kentucky Derby kicks off at 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 3rd. You can catch all the action live on NBC or stream it on Peacock. This marks the 151st running of the historic race, often called “the most exciting two minutes in sports.”

Churchill Downs attendance has been climbing every year since the 2020 race had no spectators due to COVID-19. Even with rain in the forecast, more than 156,710 fans are expected to pack the stands today.

Updated Kentucky Derby Prediction 2025

After looking at the latest odds, post positions, and recent workouts, here’s my updated prediction for the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

Why Sovereignty (+450) Is The Best Bet

Sovereignty jumps off the page as the smartest play in this year’s Derby. From post 18, Bill Mott’s colt has several things working in his favor that make him a solid value at +450.

First, he’s already won at Churchill Downs, taking the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes over this very track last October by five lengths. That proven success at the Derby venue gives him a leg up on many rivals.

Second, his running style fits perfectly with how this race should unfold. With speed horses breaking from all over – Citizen Bull on the rail, East Avenue mid-pack, and Owen Almighty outside – we’re likely to see a blistering early pace. Sovereignty’s closing kick puts him in prime position to pick up the pieces when the frontrunners start gasping for air.

Third, he’s making his third start off the bench, when horses typically hit their peak. His two races this year have been perfectly mapped out by Mott – winning the Fountain of Youth while still getting fit, then using the Florida Derby as his final tune-up. Everything says he’s ready to fire his best shot today.

While Journalism (+300) has the credentials as the favorite, recent Derby history shows chalk has struggled, with no winner in the past six years going off shorter than 8-1. Sometimes you’ve got to look beyond the obvious choice.

Other Contenders to Consider

Burnham Square (+800) deserves a hard look after his eye-catching Blue Grass win. Having Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons – the same jockey who guided last year’s winner Mystik Dan to victory in that wild photo finish – is a major plus. His versatility lets him either stalk or come from the clouds.

Sandman (+500) has drawn heavy betting action as the second choice, but that 17 post is a killer – it’s the only starting gate that’s never produced a Derby winner. Talented? Sure, but terrible value at those odds.

Luxor Cafe (+1000) represents Japan’s best Derby shot since Forever Young nearly pulled it off last year. Being a son of Triple Crown champ American Pharoah, he should handle the distance just fine.

Final Kentucky Derby Predictions 2025

1. Sovereignty (+450) – Perfect running style for how this race sets up, proven at Churchill, and peaking right on time

2. Journalism (+300) – Most consistent horse in the field, but fighting that favorite’s curse

3. Burnham Square (+800) – Has the connections and tactical speed to hit the board

4. Baeza (+1400) – Late addition who gave Journalism all he could handle in the Santa Anita Derby

While Journalism is the deserving favorite based on his consistent performances, Sovereignty offers the best combination of proven ability, running style suited to the race dynamics, and value at his current odds.

In a race that’s been kind to longer shots lately, Sovereignty stands out as the smart money play in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

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