Cavaliers vs Pacers Game 4 Odds, Picks, Predictions & Player Props to Bet

• The Cleveland Cavaliers can even their best-of-seven series with the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night
• The Cavs are sizable road favorites for the second straight game
• See the Game 4 Cavaliers vs Pacers odds, picks, player props, and predictions on May 11

After a pair of disappointing performances at home to open the series, the #1 Cleveland Cavaliers (69-20, 33-11 away, 52-36-1 ATS) can even their best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal with the #4 Indiana Pacers (56-34, 32-12 home, 41-46-3 ATS) at two games apiece on Sunday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (8:10 pm ET).

A desperate Cavs side ran away with Game 3 on Friday night, opening a 21-point lead by halftime and cruising to a 126-104 victory. Oddsmakers are strongly backing the top-seeded Cavs for the second straight game, positioning Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite in Sunday’s NBA odds.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Odds & Betting Lines

The Cavaliers are heavy -228 favorites on the moneyline, giving Cleveland a 69.51% implied win probability. The Pacers come back as +185 home underdogs, which is just a 35.09% implied win probability. The total has come down 1.5 points since Game 3, when the teams stayed under the 232.0 total by two points.

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The first two games of the series both hit the over: Indiana’s 121-112 win in Game 1 went over the 229.0 total by four points, while the Pacers’ 120-119 comeback victory in Game 2 flew over the 227.5-point total by 12.5 points.

In Game 3, Donovan Mitchell (31.3 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.9 APG postseason) was, once again, the catalyst of the Cleveland offense. Mitchell poured in 43 of Cleveland’s 126 points – his second straight 40-burger – and has now accounted for 34.7% of all the Cavs’ points in the series. By comparison, no single player on the Indiana side has scored more than 53 points (sixth man Bennedict Mathurin), which is just 15.3% of the Pacers’ total scoring output for the series.

But what Indiana lacks in a go-to scorer they make up for in depth/balance. Every single member of Indiana’s starting five is averaging between 15.0 and 17.0 PPG in the series.

The two main differences between the first two games and Game 3 were: (1) Indiana’s poor perimeter shooting – they connected at 52.8% from three in Game 1 and 39.3% in Game 2, but shot just 30% in Game 3 (9-of-30), and (2) rebounding. The Pacers were +1 on the boards in Games 1 and 2, combined, but were an embarrassing -19 at home in Game 3, which included -14 at the offensive end.

Cleveland’s twin towers – Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen – combined for nine of Cleveland’s 14 offensive boards and completely out-worked Indiana’s smaller frontcourt.

CLE vs IND Game 4 Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on May 11.

Mitchell’s prolific exploits in the first three games of the series have led to his point total rising from 26.5 in Game 1 to 28.5 in Game 2 to 29.5 in Game 3 and, finally, to 31.5 ahead of Game 4. He’s scored at least 33 in each of the first three games and is averaging 41.3 PPG in the series on 47.2% shooting, though he’s just 7-of-31 from beyond the arc (22.6%).

Pascal Siakam (18.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.9 APG postseason) had the highest point total on the Indiana side again at 18.5. The former Raptor hasn’t gone over 18 points in five straight games after opening the postseason with three straight 20-plus-point games.

Tyrese Haliburton (16.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 10.0 APG postseason) has seen his assist total drop from 10.5 in the first three games of the series to 9.5 in Game 4. The Indiana point guard averaged 11.8 assists per game in the first six playoff contests this year, but has just nine, combined, in the last two. Game 3 was by far his worst of the 2025 playoffs, scoring just four points with five dimes and three turnovers in 30 minutes.

Cavaliers vs Pacers Picks & Predicitons (Game 4)

• Pacers moneyline (+194) at FanDuel
• Siakam under 18.5 (-120) at bet365

I’m willing to acknowledge that the Cavaliers are better than my early-season, mid-season, and even late-season handicapping. But I still refuse to believe that their quantum leap in shooting from last year to this season is sustainable. If the Pacers shoot at their usual clip from deep and don’t get absolutely massacred on the glass, Game 4 will look very different from Game 3.

At +194 at FanDuel, Indiana only needs a 35% win probability to be good value on the moneyline. The odds have swung way too far in Cleveland’s direction after one victory. (Indiana was +178 ahead of Game 3.)

But I am going to bet Siakam to stay under 18.5 points for the sixth straight game. He just isn’t getting enough looks/usage to warrant a point total this high. His 15.2 FGA per game is down to 13.6 in the playoffs as a whole and 12.2 against Cleveland.