Red Sox Enter MLB Postseason as World Series Favorites

• The Red Sox have the shortest average odds to win the 2018 World Series at +320
• Is there value in betting on Boston?
• Are the defending world champion Astros capable of pulling off a repeat? 

The Red Sox won a franchise record 108 games in 2018, and they could just be getting started.

Bookmakers have given Boston the shortest average odds to win the World Series at +320. The Sox are available as short as +295 and as long as +330.

Boston’s short odds aren’t terribly surprising considering the way they blitzed through the regular season. The Red Sox began the year 17-2, enjoyed three win streaks of eight games or more, and finished 61 games ahead of the moribund Orioles in the American League East.

Along the way they produced a pair of MVP finalists in Mookie Betts and JD Martinez, and a bona fide Cy Young candidate in Chris Sale.

2018 World Series Odds

The secret to their regular season success was their outstanding offense. Boston led the Majors in eight different statistical categories including runs, hits, total bases, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They also did well on the base paths, swiping 125 bags and getting caught just 31 times. Their stolen base percentage of 80.13% was second only to the Dodgers.

Red Sox vs MLB Average

If there’s any knock on Boston, it’s their pitching. The Red Sox rank sixth in runs, eighth in batting average allowed and ERA, 10th in quality starts, and 14th in walks. David Price, Rick Porcello, and Eduardo Rodriguez have all struggled at times to keep runners off the base paths.

There are also legitimate concerns about the health of Chris Sale, who spent six weeks on the DL with shoulder inflammation. The seven-time All-Star hasn’t exceeded five innings since August 12th and has experienced a profound drop in his velocity since his return.  His average fastball velocity in his last start against the Orioles was his lowest ever in a Major League game.

Chris Sale isn’t himself. Four-seam fastball averaged 89.9 MPH in the first inning. Hit two batters with the slider.

— Chris Mason (@ByChrisMason) September 26, 2018

Sale’s struggles open the door for the Astros, who at +350 offer a slightly better value than the Red Sox. Houston isn’t far behind Boston offensively and leads the Majors in ERA, BAA, and strike outs. Justin Verlander (16-9), Gerrit Cole (15-5), Charlie Morton (15-3), and Dallas Keuchel (12-11) are all front line starters with playoff pedigree and an ability to go deep into games.

The Astros also addressed their one glaring weakness from a year ago when they acquired closer Roberto Osuna from the Blue Jays on July 30th. The former All-Star is 2-2 with 12 saves and a 1.99 ERA and is a clear upgrade over Ken Giles, who imploded in the 2017 World Series against the Dodgers.

The Red Sox are still the safe pick, but the Astros are nipping right at their heels and should provide them with a worthy adversary in the ALCS. Whichever team win that series is a lock to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy at the end of October.