NBA Finals Best Bets – Three Safe Picks for Thunder vs Pacers
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The NBA Finals tips off on Thursday from Oklahoma City
- Tyrese Haliburton is averaging only 12 points per game over the last two seasons versus the Thunder
- Keep reading for my NBA Finals best bets, including the three safest picks on the board
The NBA Finals matchup is set, with the Indiana Pacers surprising the basketball world by making it out of East side of the NBA playoff bracket to face the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC is massive chalk to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy, becoming just the 11th team in the last 50 years to be laying -600 odds or longer in the Finals.
There’s a plethora of ways to bet the Thunder vs Pacers series, but some of the most intriguing categories are the player and series specials. That’s where you’ll find my three favorite NBA Finals best bets, so keep reading for the picks and analysis below.
NBA Finals Best Bets
My favorite bet to target is under 17.5 points per game for Tyrese Haliburton. That may seem crazy based on his playoff run so far, but this is a horrendous matchup for him as we’ll discuss. I’m also betting 1+ made threes in every game for Pascal Siakam, and for Chet Holmgren to rack up more rebounds than anyone else.
Odds as of June 2 at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings promo code signing up, and get a profit boost for every game of the NBA Playoffs.
Thunder vs Pacers Pick #1: Tyrese Haliburton Under 17.5 Points Per Game
The Knicks had no answer for Haliburton. He got what he wanted, whenever he wanted, but that won’t be the case versus the Thunder. OKC has a stable of long, athletic defenders, including four that ranked in the top-20 in defensive win shares. They’ve given him fits in the past, turning him into a passive player. Over their last four meetings, Haliburton is averaging only 12 points per contest, and has been held in single figures twice.
Tyrese Haliburton Last 4 Games vs Thunder
What’s even more scary for Pacers fans, is the fact that the NBA Championship odds favorites have done a great job of getting the ball out of his hands. Haliburton is averaging only 10.2 shot attempts against the Thunder, and less than 1 free throw attempt per game. In four matchups, he’s drawn just one shooting foul.
Lu Dort have been the most effective defender against Haliburton, and is likely to see plenty of him in the NBA Finals. Haliburton has scored just 8 points on 10 attempts in 122 matchups when guarded by Dort. That’s by far his lowest shot rate against any defender.
OKC vs IND Pick #2: Pascal Siakam 1+ Made Threes in Every Game
Since I expect Haliburton to be rendered largely ineffective, his teammates will have to step up. I’m betting Pascal Siakam will rise to the occasion, fresh off an Eastern Conference Finals MVP performance. Siakam shot the ball beautifully versus the Knicks, knocking down 52.4% of his looks, and 50% of his triples.
He’s upped his three-point attempts by a full shot during these playoffs, shooting 46% from downtown across three series. Siakam averaged 6 three-point attempts against the Thunder in the regular season, and with Indiana projected to be trailing the majority of the time, I’m banking on him burying at least one three every game at juicy +300 odds.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Pick #3: Chet Holmgren Most Total Rebounds
The Pacers biggest weakness may be on the glass. Of the 16 playoff teams this year, only three had a worse rebounding rate than Indiana. They don’t have a reliable big they can trust on the glass which is problematic against OKC’s twin towers. Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren should gobble up boards, especially on the offensive end, and I like the ladder’s chances of leading the series in rebounding.
Holmgren enters the NBA Finals as the only player left averaging north of 8 rebounds this postseason. He plays significantly more minutes than Hartenstein, allowing him to be apart of big and small Thunder lineups. The Knicks just hung a 35% offensive rebounding rate on the Pacers, and I expect Holmgren to average a double-double in every Finals contest.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
