Wimbledon Picks & Predictions for Day 5 (July 4th) Including Fritz vs Davidovich Fokina

• Wimbledon’s Friday slate sees Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Taylor Fritz in action on the men’s side
• Madison Keys, the best American title threat, faces Laura Siegemund on the women’s side
• Below, see my favorite Wimbledon picks and predictions to

When Coco Gauff was bounced in the first round, the American title chances at Wimbledon took a huge hit. Heading into day five on Friday, Madison Keys (+1400) has the best title odds among US players on either with men’s or women’s side. Taylor Fritz (+2000) has the best odds among the American men.

Both Keys and Fritz are in action on Friday, with the former facing 37-year-old German Laura Siegemund and the latter squaring off with 26-year-old Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, whom he’s split six career matches with.

The table below lists my favorite Wimbledon picks and predictions for July 4th, along with the sportsbook currently offering the best odds for each pick.

Wimbledon Picks & Predictions (July 4th)

Odds as of 12:02 pm ET, July 3. Track the tournament outrights with SBD’s Wimbledon odds tracker.

Fritz vs Davidovich Fokina Pick

These two have a long history and it’s evenly balanced, with each winning three of their six head-to-head matches. Fritz won the most recent, less than two weeks ago in Eastbourne, 6-3, 3-6, 6-1.

Fritz has already spent a ton of time on court at Wimbledon. He played a five-setter in the first round against big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (6-7⁶, 6-7⁸, 6-4, 7-6⁶, 6-4), and another five-setter in the second round against Gabriel Diallo (3-6, 6-3, 7-6⁰, 4-6, 6-3).

Over his last seven matches, he’s gone 6-1 straight-up, but has just one victory in straight sets (a 7-5, 6-1 win over fellow American Jenson Brooksby in the Eastbourne final).

Davidovich Fokina upset Fritz in stunning fashion at Delray Beach earlier this year, but his 7-6⁴, 7-6⁵ victory showcased just how difficult it is to distance the American.

Regardless of how fatigued Fritz is, there is little chance the Spaniard wins this quickly. But I do expect Fritz’s time-on-court to play a factor. Davidovich Fokina is a master at extending rallies and hanging around. He will force this match over the total of 38.5 games and I also like the value on him as a +290 underdog at FanDuel, given how well he’s performed against Fritz in the past.

Jarry vs Fonseca Prediction

Nicolas Jarry, who finished the 2023 season in the top 20, has dropped all the way to 143 after an ugly clay-court season followed a two month hiatus. But the Chilean, who had to come through qualifying just to make the main draw, is now on an absolute tear. He’s won five straight matches, four in straight sets.

His only victory that wasn’t in straight sets was as a +375 underdog against world #8 Holger Rune, in which he overgame a 0-2 set deficit. Yes, he was fortunate that Rune was battling a lingering knee injury and not at full speed, but his other four victories are plenty to showcase his current form. He dusted up-and-coming 19-year-old Lerner Tien (world #62) 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, serving a preposterous 81%, winning 83% of his service points, and winning all 13 of his service games without even facing a break point.

But sensational 18-year-old Joao Fonseca, who has already climbed to #54 in the world, is going to be extremely difficult to break, as well. He won all 15 of his service games in a second-round, straight-sets win over #51 Jacob Fearnley (6-4, 6-1, 7-6⁵), saving all four of the break points he faced.

All of this adds up to long sets in which break points are at a serious premium. When both players are fresh in the first set, I fully expect 12 holds and a tiebreak, which is excellent value at +200 (33.3% implied probability) at bet365.