Wimbledon Predictions & Picks for July 7, Including Sinner vs Dimitrov, Shelton vs Sonego

• The men’s round of 16 is in the spotlight at Wimbledon on July 7
• World #1 Jannik Sinner faces Grigor Dimitrov, while American Ben Shelton meets Lorenzo Sonego
• Below, see my Wimbledon predictions and picks for Sinner vs Dimitrov and more

Upsets have been the defining characteristic of Wimbledon 2025, and Monday sees some heavy favorites on the men’s side looking to avoid a similar fate. In men’s round-of-16 action, three top-10 seeds are priced at -400 or shorter: #1 Jannick Sinner vs #19 Grigor Dimitrov, #6 Novak Djokovic vs #11 Alex De Minaur, and #10 Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego.

Shelton is hoping to join fellow American Taylor Fritz in Tuesday’s quarterfinals. Both are hoping to end a 22-year drought for American men at Grand Slams (since Andy Roddick at the 2003 US Open).

The table below lists my favorite Wimbledon predictions and picks for Monday, July 7.

Wimbledon Picks & Predictions Today

Odds as of 3:39 pm ET, July 6. Use SBD’s guide to find the best betting app for Wimbledon 2025.

Sinner vs Dimitrov Prediction & Pick

After a stunning loss to Alexander Bublik in the second round in Halle, Sinner has been electric at Wimbledon. He’s won each of his first three matches in straight sets, and only once in nine tries has an opponent reached four games (first set in round one against Luca Nardi). That means he’s won eight straight sets by at least three games, and that includes four 6-1 sets and a bagel.

It’s true that the quality of competition has been low. The highest-ranked opponent he’s faced so far is #52 Pedro Martinez, who’s a clay-court specialist and has never won more than two grass-court matches in a single season.

Dimitrov is a big step up in competition, but he’s also an opponent that Sinner has dominated. Since 2023, the pair have met four times. Sinner has won all four and lost just a single set in the process. None of the matches took place on grass. Dimitrov is strong enough on the carpet, but you’d hardly call him a grass-court specialist. He’d have as good a chance against Sinner on clay or hard courts.

Dimitrov has won nine of his first ten sets at Wimbledon this year, but his competition has been even easier than Sinner’s. He hasn’t faced an opponent ranked higher than #69 in the world (Corentin Moutet, who took the second set off the Bulgarian).

I’m betting Sinner to win this in straight sets, just as he’s done in the last two matches against Dimitrov and three of the last four.

This prop is as short as -280 at Caesars, and I was stunned to see it as long as -175 at bet365. This is an absolute steal.

Pick: Sinner 3-0 (-175 at bet365)

Shelton vs Sonego Prediction & Pick

The enigmatic Ben Shelton has shaken off a brutal start to the grass-court season – 0-2 with losses against #62 Lerner Tien (6-4. 7-6²) and Tomas Martin Etcheverry (7-6³, 7-6²), both as a massive favorite – and been downright dominant at Wimbledon. The big-serving 22-year-old has won each of his first nine sets, and only need a tiebreak in three of them.

World #47 Lorenzo Sonego has spent a lot more time on court so far. On Sunday, he played a five-set marathon against Brandon Nakashima. The five-hour match featured four tiebreaks, including a 10-3 Sonego win in the fifth. He broke the Nakashim serve just twice in 29 tries, whiffing on 70% of the break points he earned. In the second round, Sonego needed four sets to advance past #126 Nikoloz Basilashvili.

While his return games have left a lot to be desired, Sonego’s serve has been impeccable. He’s serving 73% while winning 74% of his first serves and 62% of his second serves. Shelton is winning a higher percentage of his first serves (80%) but a lower percentage of his second serves (59%).

Shelton has held 45 of 47 services games to date (95.7%). Sonego has held 57 of 62 (91.9%). The moneyline odds heavily favor Shelton at

FanDuel is offering very reasonable -170 odds on the score being 3-3 after the first six service games, and that’s the best I’m targeting here.

Pick: 3-3 after first six games (-170 at FanDuel)

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