Friday Women’s Boxing Predictions: Taylor vs Serrano 3 Netflix Card Picks

• Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano are wrapping up their trilogy at Madison Square Garden.
• Alycia Baumgardner defends her undisputed super featherweight crown against Jennifer Miranda
• Read below for Friday boxing odds and predictions for Taylor vs Serrano 3, Baumgardner vs Miranda, and Marshall vs Green

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Boxing history gets made this Friday (July 11th) as Netflix hosts an all-female card headlined by the trilogy bout between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano at Madison Square Garden in New York.

After two close decisions that both went Taylor’s way, these pound-for-pound greats meet for what could be the final time. The Irish champion defends her IBF, WBC, and WBO super lightweight titles against “The Real Deal” Serrano in the rubber match boxing fans have been craving.

The stacked undercard features Alycia “The Bomb” Baumgardner putting her undisputed super featherweight championship on the line against Spain’s undefeated Jennifer Miranda. Savannah Marshall is also fighting Shadasia Green for the super middleweight title.

Women’s Boxing Odds – Friday, July 11

In the Friday boxing odds for July 11th, Alycia Baumgardner is the heaviest favorite on the card at -2000 against Jennifer Miranda. With 95.2% implied win probability, oddsmakers expect “The Bomb” to handle business without much trouble.

The card kicks off at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT and will stream exclusively on Netflix. The main event between Taylor and Serrano is expected to begin around 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT.

We have to give Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions credit for putting together this historic all-female card, which shows how deep the talent pool is in women’s boxing.

 

Odds as of July 9, 2025, at BetMGM & FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the best sportsbook promos for Friday Night Boxing.

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano 3 Prediction

The trilogy nobody expected but everyone wanted reaches its conclusion Friday night. After two controversial decisions that both went Taylor’s way, these warriors meet one more time to settle the score.

Their first meeting at Madison Square Garden in April 2022 was an instant classic, with Taylor earning a split decision despite getting badly hurt in the fifth round.

The rematch last November in Texas was even more controversial. Serrano outlanded Taylor by 107 total punches and 70 power punches, only to lose another decision after Taylor got docked a point for headbutting.

Now they’re back where it all started. The 39-year-old Taylor defends her IBF, WBC, and WBO super lightweight titles against the 36-year-old Serrano, who enters as a slight -160 favorite.

Serrano needs to make some changes to finally break through. In the last two fights, she landed some hits on Taylor but hasn’t been able to finish it off. The Puerto Rican powerhouse has 31 career knockouts compared to just six for Taylor, and she’ll need to press that advantage hard.

Taylor’s path to victory stays the same. Use her boxing IQ and movement to pile up points while avoiding Serrano’s power shots. But at 39 and after 20 brutal rounds with Serrano, Father Time might finally be catching up to the Irish legend.

The key could be the referee. Taylor has a tendency to hold excessively when tired, and her head has been a problem in recent fights. A firm official who keeps the action clean could swing things Serrano’s way.

After watching these two go to war twice, I think Serrano finally gets her moment. Expect her to put on some smart pressure, go to the body early, and wear down the veteran champ for a late stoppage or a solid decision win.

Taylor vs Serrano 3 Picks:

• Amanda Serrano wins by decision (+100)
• Over 0.5 total knockdowns (+250)

Alycia Baumgardner vs Jennifer Miranda Prediction

Alycia Baumgardner makes her Madison Square Garden debut defending her undisputed super featherweight championship against Spain’s unbeaten Jennifer Miranda.

Since unifying all four belts, Baumgardner has established herself as one of boxing’s most exciting champions. The 30-year-old Baltimore native brings a 15-1 record with seven knockouts, combining speed, power, and charisma in equal measure.

Miranda enters as a massive underdog at +1000, but the 34-year-old Spaniard shouldn’t be completely written off. The former Olympian brings a perfect 12-0 record and has been training for six months specifically for this shot.

The difference in power jumps off the page. Miranda has just one knockout in 12 wins. She’ll need to use her two-inch height advantage, movement, and technical skills to keep Baumgardner at bay and pile up points.

But that’s easier said than done. Baumgardner fights with smart aggression, cutting off the ring and punishing opponents with clean combinations. Her hand speed advantage should be significant, and she’s proven she can break down tough opponents over time.

While Miranda’s toughness and amateur background give her a fighting chance, Baumgardner’s class should show. Expect the champion to take a few rounds to figure out Miranda’s style before turning up the heat for a mid-to-late stoppage.

Baumgardner vs Miranda Pick:

• Alycia Baumgardner wins by TKO rounds 6-10

Savannah Marshall vs Shadasia Green Prediction

Two years after their fight was originally scheduled, Savannah Marshall and Shadasia Green finally collide for super middleweight supremacy. Marshall’s IBF title and Green’s WBO belt will both be on the line in what looks like a genuine 50-50 fight.

Marshall is back after taking a two-year break since her fight with Claressa Shields. The 34-year-old Brit has a solid 13-1 record with 10 knockouts, using her height, reach, and timing to take down opponents from a distance.

Green’s been keeping busy while Marshall’s been away, racking up a solid 4-1 record in her last five fights. The 35-year-old American has some serious knockout power, with 11 KOs in 15 wins, and he’s not shy about taking risks to land those big shots.

This is a classic showdown between a boxer and a puncher. Marshall is planning to use her height and reach to keep things at a distance with her jab and straight punches. Green’s gotta get in there, give Marshall a hard time, and see if that two-year break has messed with her timing.

So, the big question is: Can Green catch up to Marshall before she gets into her groove? And can the American push a pace that exposes any ring rust or cardio issues?

Both fighters possess legit knockout power, which means the judges might not even be needed here. The oddsmakers have Marshall as a massive -625 favorite, but that line seems too wide given the circumstances.

Green’s activity edge and aggressive style could be a problem for Marshall, who hasn’t fought since 2023. But if Marshall gets rid of the rust quickly, her boxing skills should win out. This has fireworks written all over it.

Marshall vs Green Pick:

• Fight does not go the distance
• Savannah Marshall wins by late TKO