Taylor vs Serrano 3 Prediction, Odds & Prop Bets for July 11 Fight

• Amanda Serrano and Katie Taylor face off for a third time tonight at Madison Square Garden in a 10-round super lightweight title fight
• Our final Taylor vs Serrano 3 prediction targets Serrano by decision after two controversial losses
• Read below for expert analysis, prop bets, and Taylor vs Serrano 3 odds breakdown

Twenty rounds into this rivalry, and Amanda Serrano still hasn’t had her hand raised. That should change tonight.

After two razor-close decisions went Katie Taylor’s way, boxing fans are ready for a different ending. Oddsmakers agree, making Serrano a heavy favorite in the Friday boxing odds despite being 0-2 in the series.

Let me break down my final Taylor vs Serrano 3 prediction and where the smart money lies.

Taylor vs Serrano 3 Fight Analysis

Let’s start with what the scorecards didn’t show last time. In the rematch last November, Serrano outlanded Taylor 324 to 217. She threw more, landed more in 9 out of 10 rounds, and absorbed a headbutt that left a nasty cut. Yet somehow, all three judges scored it 95-94 for Taylor.

The crowd wasn’t happy. Social media had questions. Even casual fans who watched on Netflix could tell something was wrong. That night, Serrano threw 734 punches, more than 73 per round, and hit 44% of them. Those numbers don’t mean you’re losing.

In their first meeting, you could at least argue Taylor’s late surge earned her the split decision. But the rematch left more questions than answers.

Now we’re back at Madison Square Garden. And this time, the tide feels different. Serrano’s the -200 favorite, a major shift from their last two meetings. In other words, the betting market is finally catching up to what most of us have seen: Serrano’s done enough to win.

Taylor, now 39 years old, has taken a beating in her last handful of fights. From the war with Chantelle Cameron (who beat her clean) to two grueling bouts with Serrano, the wear and tear is starting to show. She’s still a warrior, but grit alone can’t overcome being outlanded by triple digits.

Serrano, on the other hand, keeps getting better. She’s naturally a featherweight, competing above her ideal weight class to chase greatness. The fact that she has beaten Taylor in almost every way while fighting above her ideal weight shows how big the skill gap is here.

Final Taylor vs Serrano 3 Prediction

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I’m calling for Amanda Serrano to win by unanimous decision.

This isn’t about disrespecting Taylor’s legacy. She’s an Olympic gold medalist and undisputed champion who’s given everything to this sport. But boxing is about what happens between the ropes, not reputation.

Serrano’s game plan won’t change: high-volume punching, accuracy, relentless pressure. This time, the crowd’s on her side. The judges are definitely gonna find it tough to overlook 700+ punches when the fans at MSG are going wild for every combo.

Taylor’s got to make this a chess game, moving side to side and choosing her moments to strike for the win. The problem is, Serrano won’t let her. She’ll cut off the ring, work the body, and force exchanges where her superior hand speed shines through.

By round five or six, the rhythm will be set: Serrano throwing combos, Taylor replying with one punch at a time. The punch stats will be lopsided. The decision? It should finally match the numbers.

Third time’s the charm for Serrano. I’m predicting she gets the decision she’s earned.

Taylor vs Serrano 3 Best Bets Tonight

The moneyline offers minimal value at -200 for Serrano. These boxing props are where the real money is hiding:

Primary Bet: Serrano by Decision (+100 at BetMGM)
Even money for what feels like a -150 bet? Yes, please. Taylor’s never been stopped and her chin is pure granite. But Serrano’s going to overwhelm her again. And this time, the judges will (hopefully) do their jobs.

Value Play: Neither Fighter Gets Knocked Down (-275 at DraftKings)
Twenty rounds, no knockdowns. Serrano’s too sharp defensively, and Taylor’s as tough as they come. This one’s a solid addition to a parlay.

Prop Bet: Fight Goes the Distance (-600 at BetMGM)
Yeah, the juice is steep, but it’s justified. Taylor’s only loss came by decision, and Serrano hasn’t been stopped since 2012. Combine this with another favorite to balance the odds.

Longshot Special: Serrano by Split Decision (+500 at BetMGM)
If you think the judges might give Taylor one sympathy scorecard, this pays 5-1. A small sprinkle here could pay off big if we get another close verdict.

Latest Taylor vs Serrano 3 Odds

Odds as of July 11, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM bonus code to bet on Taylor vs Serrano 3 tonight. For more options, check out the top US betting sites.

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Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000!

Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

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CODE: DIME365

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BET $5
GET $150

OR GET UP TO $1,000 BACK

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