Alcaraz vs Fritz Picks, Predictions & Betting Lines

• Carlos Alcaraz is a big favorite over Taylor Fritz in the first men’s Wimbledon semifinal
• Fritz has yet to win a set against Alcaraz in his career, though they’ve only met twice to date
• Below, see my favorite Fritz vs Alcaraz picks and predictions, plus the latest Wimbledon betting lines for the men’s semis

World #2 Carlos Alcaraz continues his Wimbledon title defense on Friday against #5 Taylor Fritz, who is looking to reach his first final at the All England Club and second-career grand-slam final. The Alcaraz vs Fritz odds opened with the Spaniard a massive -600 favorite on Wednesday, and they don’t look any prettier for the American on Friday morning.

Alcaraz/Fritz will be the first of two semifinals on Friday in London and is tentatively scheduled to start at 8:30 am ET on Center Court.

Alcaraz vs Fritz Betting Lines

As of early Friday morning, Alcaraz remained a -600 favorite with Fritz stagnating at +400. The vig-free implied probability currently gives Alcaraz an 81.08% implied win probability and Fritz a miniscule 18.92%. The game spread gives Fritz a 5.5-game cushing to work with. The total has been set at 37.5 games with -115 odds each way.

Odds as of July 11 at bet365 (moneyline and game spread) and DraftKings (total). Find the top sports betting apps for Wimbledon 2025.

With Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic battling in the other semifinal, the top-three favorites in the Wimbledon title odds are all still kicking. Alcaraz started the tournament as the +200 betting favorite, followed by Sinner (+250) and Djokovic (+300). Fritz was roughly +4000 ahead of the first round.

Alcaraz vs Fritz Head-to-Head Results

Fritz and Alcaraz have only met twice previously, and only once on the ATP Tour. Their last meeting was on hardcourts in Laver Cup action back in September 2024, with Alcaraz representing Team Europe and Fritz representing Team World.

The 22-year-old Spaniard cruised to a 6-2, 7-5 victory and was the aggressor throughout. He finished with 25 winners to Fritz’s 14. Alcaraz’s serve was also proved better on that day. He finished with a higher first-serve percentage (73% to 68%) and won significantly more of his first serves (80% to 64%).

Alcaraz converted four of six breakpoints in the match. Fritz converted just one of four.

The only other time the pair have met was also on hardcourts at the 2023 Miami Open. That match was an even-more-lopsided 6-4, 6-2 win for Alcaraz, who hit a preposterous one unforced error in the entire match.

Again Alcaraz was more consistent and dominant with his serve on that day, hitting 69% of his first serves (compared to 58% for Fritz) and winning 76% of his first-serve points (compared to 73% for Fritz).

Alcaraz vs Fritz Prediction & Picks

• Fritz +2.5 sets (-165) at DraftKings
• Over 34.5 total games (-160) at FanDuel

Anytime you see a player as good as Fritz as long as +400, it’s always tempting to take a flyer. But that’s exactly what it would be in this case. The stats don’t support a bet on Fritz to win at +400, which requires more than a 20% chance to win to be a +EV bet.

Sure, Alcaraz has been much less than perfect over the past ten days. He needed five sets to oust aging clay-courter Fabio Fognini in the first round and dropped sets in two other matches, as well. But Fritz has spent even more time on court. He went five sets in each of the first two rounds against a pair of big-serving youngsters: 22-year-old Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and 23-year-old Gabriel Diallo. He actually doesn’t have a straight-sets victory on his Wimbledon resume this year, but did catch a break when Jordan Thompson retired mid-second set in the round of 16.

I do expect Fritz to do something he’s never done in his career, though: win a set against Alcaraz. The American’s serve has been downright dominant so far. Of the six sets that he’s lost, three were via tiebreak. He’s held 93% of his service games (88 of 95), which is not-insignificantly higher than Alcaraz at 89.1%.

Remember, when Alcaraz was dominating their two previous meetings, he was teeing off on the Fritz serve at times (especially the second serve) and was lights-out with his own. It would be a stretch to say that Alcaraz has been vulnerable on his service games, but there have been kinks. There is no rhyme or reason for him losing two of 14 services games against world #733 Oliver Tarvet.

If Fritz is able to take a set, over the alt-total of 34.5 games is a virtual guarantee. And as long as his serve remains dominant, we can still get to that over in a straight-sets victory (e.g. a tiebreak plus a 7-5 set and a 6-4 set gets us to 35 games, or two tiebreaks and a 6-3 set).