Jake Paul vs Gervonta Davis – Projected Betting Odds for November Fight

• Jake Paul and Gervonta “Tank” Davis will meet November 14, 2025 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
• The Problem Child enters as the projected underdog despite holding a massive size advantage
• Read below for projected Paul vs Davis odds, fighter breakdown and early predictions

Jake Paul’s next opponent is his toughest yet. The YouTube star will face undefeated WBA lightweight champ Gervonta Davis on November 14, 2025, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, streaming exclusively on Netflix. Early odds favor Tank even though he’s giving up roughly 65 pounds to the Problem Child.

Netflix and MVP Promotions made it official today, though we’re still waiting on weight limits and specific rules. The fight happens the night before a UFC card at Madison Square Garden, so combat sports fans get two solid nights back-to-back.

Here’s what you need to know about the projected Paul vs Davis odds and what to expect when these two finally step in the ring.

Projected Paul vs Davis Odds

Early signals point to Davis opening around -180, giving him roughly a 64% chance of winning. Paul comes back around +140, putting his chances at about 42%. Keep in mind these numbers could shift once we know the actual weight and rules.

Projected odds based on early market indicators. Official odds from major U.S. sportsbooks expected soon. Watch for line movement at boxing betting apps once weight and rules are confirmed.

Tank Favored Despite Massive Size Gap

The projected Paul vs Davis odds might surprise casual fans. Davis gives up eight inches in height and 8.5 inches in reach to Paul. Based on their most recent weigh-ins, Paul holds a 65-pound weight advantage.

But the oddsmakers aren’t sleeping on Davis’s resume. The Baltimore native sits at 30-0-1 with 28 knockouts. That’s a 93% finish rate, and he’s a legit multi-division champ who’s taken out Ryan Garcia, Frank Martin, and other elite fighters.

Paul brings a 12-1 record with seven knockouts. His only loss came against Tommy Fury back in February 2023. Since then, he’s beaten Mike Perry, Mike Tyson, and most recently took a unanimous decision over Julio César Chávez Jr. in June 2025.

The early odds tell us bookmakers think Tank’s skill beats Paul’s size advantage.

Paul vs Davis Tale of the Tape

Why Paul Could Beat the Odds

Paul’s path to victory is straightforward: use his jab, lean on Davis, and make him carry the weight. At cruiserweight, Paul has shown legitimate power, scoring three knockouts in his last five fights.

The Problem Child has stayed busy too. He’s been fighting regularly since 2024, getting rounds under his belt against some decent opponents. Davis, meanwhile, fought to a sketchy draw with Lamont Roach in March 2025. That result had people questioning where he’s at right now.

Paul could steal some rounds if he uses that 76-inch reach to keep distance and stays away from Tank’s counter left hook. He’s got the size – it’s all about using it smart.

Davis’s Championship Pedigree

Tank’s resume speaks for itself. He’s taken down legit world champs and contenders across different weight classes. His timing, shot selection, and finishing instinct are all world class.

The southpaw stance gives Davis another weapon. Paul doesn’t have much experience against lefties, and Tank’s counters could punish any mistakes when Paul gets reaching with his right hand.

Most important? Davis knows how to handle the big stage. He’s delivered under pressure against Ryan Garcia, Frank Martin, and other dangerous guys. Paul’s fought celebrities and MMA fighters, but never a current world champion boxer.

Exhibition Rules Could Shift Odds

That “exhibition” tag matters when you’re betting this fight. Special rules like weight caps, bigger gloves, or shorter rounds could impact the projected odds.

Paul previously mentioned the format would likely be “10 three-minute rounds” with a weight around 195 pounds. If Davis has to bulk up while Paul cuts down, it might even out some of that size difference.

Keep an eye on line movement once the final rules drop. A catchweight closer to 180 pounds would probably make Davis an even bigger favorite.

Early Paul vs Davis Prediction

Those projected odds feel about right. Davis should be favored on pure skill, but Paul’s size makes this a tricky spot for Tank.

My early prediction: Davis by decision. Tank’s too smart to get caught clean by Paul’s power shots, but the size difference prevents him from walking through Paul for a knockout. Expect Tank to box, move, and pile up points over the distance.

That said, if Paul can rough up Davis early and make him feel that weight, the upset potential is definitely there. The Problem Child has made doubters eat their words before.