Expert & Computer Make NFL Predictions for Week 1 – Picks & Score Predictions for Each Game

Week 1 of the 2025-26 NFL season continues today (Sunday) with 13 more games. Betting the first NFL Sunday of the season can be difficult if you haven’t followed each team’s offseason moves closely, and even if you have, there is still an aspect of uncertainty to each team until you have actually seen them play a real game. But my SBD formula and I have thoroughly studied all the moving pieces, and are teaming up to offer our NFL predictions and picks for Week 1.

I have shared my formula’s picks for each game as well as its score prediction in the table below.

Week 1 NFL Predictions

Before you tail (or maybe fade) any of these bets, be sure you check out our NFL odds page, which will give you the best odds on every team at that time. Shopping for the best price available on every bet is a crucial part of successfully betting on sports, and our page does the shopping for you!

As will likely be the case fairly often, I agree with many of the computer picks for Week 1 in the NFL. This is largely because I am the one who came up with the formula behind those computer picks. So, the computer and I see football in a pretty similar way. However, I think this makes it even more interesting when we disagree.

I put the picks we disagree on in bold font, which come in the following games:

• Raiders at Patriots
• Steelers at Jets
• 49ers at Seahawks
• Texans at Rams

In my opinion, the Patriots are primed to take a good step forward in Drake Maye’s second season. Mike Vrabel is a good head coach who will clean up the fundamentals, especially on defense. While Ashton Jeanty is a great player, I think he’s in tough as a rookie entering an offense with not much other established talent around him. I like the Patriots to get a win at home!

When it comes to the Steelers vs Jets, it feels crazy when typing it, but I have more confidence in Justin Fields than Aaron Rodgers right now. I think the Jets will lean on the ground game and play it safe offensively, while Rodgers commits some turnover-worthy plays.

I know the 49ers are without many of their typical stars – some left in free agency and others are just injured – but I really like them adding Robert Saleh back as DC. I think his scheme and coaching overcome some of the departures on that side of the ball, and will be able to overwhelm Sam Darnold, who isn’t playing in a Kevin O’Connell offense anymore. A healthy CMC will help carry the injured 49ers offense to victory.

Finally, I like the Rams to beat the Texans largely because of the advantage I believe they have in the trenches. I’m not confident Houston did enough to correct their offensive line issues from last season, and the Rams defensive front can get after the QB. Matthew Stafford may not be fully healthy, but he has plenty of talent around him to help ease the load.

If you’re looking for some picks that will get you plus odds, here are the underdogs my formula and I are picking to win:

• Raiders (formula)
• Dolphins (me)
• Jets (me)
• Lions (both)

I also want to disclose that Week 1 is always the most difficult week for my formula to make NFL predictions – it is forced to rely on data from last year, and there is no overly accurate method for measuring the impact of players added/lost or coaching changes, but I try! This does not mean the formula does not historically perform well in Week 1, though. It just means it’s the least calculated/data-driven predictions you’ll see from it this season.