Final Michigan vs Oklahoma Prediction, Latest Odds & Pick for Week 2

• #15 Michigan faces #18 Oklahoma tonight in the biggest game of the Week 2 slate
• The Sooners yielded only 3.3 yards per play in their Week 1 win
• See below for my final Michigan vs Oklahoma prediction, updated odds and picks for this marquee matchup

The lone Week 2 contest pitting ranked teams against one another goes down tonight in Norman. That’s where #18 Oklahoma hosts #15 Michigan, in a game I predict will fall short of the total listed in the college football odds.

Both teams feature exceptional defenses, and Wolverines freshman QB Bryce Underwood will have to deal with a deafening crowd noise the likes of which he’s never experienced.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm ET from Memorial Stadium, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Final Michigan vs Oklahoma Prediction

• Under 44 (-110 at Bet365)

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When the week started, I was all over the Wolverines +6.5. That line has fallen to +5, and while I still think it’s the right side, I show more value on the total in the updated Michigan vs Oklahoma odds.

Let’s start with the Wolverines. Underwood is making his first career road start, and the environment will be nothing like his season debut at home. Yes, he played mistake-free football in that game against an inferior New Mexico team, but the Sooners are a major step up in competition.

Oklahoma’s defense is full of blue chippers, and ranked 13th in sack rate last year, and second in rushing success rate against. They obliterated their week 1 opponent, Illinois State, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and 34 passing yards. They’re going to be able to generate pressure, and that should be worrisome to Michigan fans.

Oklahoma Sooners Week 1 Defensive Stats

Underwood was pressured seven times in Week 1, and the results weren’t pretty. He completed only two passes, took two sacks, and averaged 2.0 yards per dropback. It’s not uncommon for tremendous prospects like Underwood to falter in their first true road test; look no further than Heisman Trophy odds contender Arch Manning last week. I expect similar struggles for Underwood, making points tough to come by.

The Wolverines’ defense, meanwhile, is another reason to back the under. This unit is always a strength of the program, and I’m expecting their style of play to limit John Mateer’s effectiveness. Mateer threw for 392 yards and 3 TD last week, but the downfield windows won’t be open against Michigan like they were last week.

The Wolverines used a two-high coverage look on nearly 40% of their defensive snaps last week, one of the highest marks in the nation. Mateer also won’t have a ton of time to throw, as the revamped defensive line produced three sacks last week and multiple hurries, which led to poor decisions and 3 INT.

If you think trying to pound running backs against this Michigan front is the answer, I implore you to think again. The Wolverines surrendered 1.8 yards per carry last week, after limiting enemy backs to 3 yards per carry in 2024.

Updated Michigan vs Oklahoma Odds

The best spot to bet the under in this matchup featuring CFP playoff odds contenders is Bet365. They’re offering a total of 44 at -110 odds, while the rest of the prominent books are showing 43.5.

Per the college football public betting trends, the under is drawing heavy action from bettors, accounting for 79% of the total tickets and 76% of the money wagered.

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Odds as of September 6 at Bet365. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 2 college football.

Michigan vs Oklahoma Pick

• John Mateer Over 30.5 Rushing Yards

In addition to betting the under, I’m also going to bet over 30.5 rushing yards for Mateer. The downside to playing a ton of two-high looks is that it leaves your defense vulnerable to QB scrambles. Mateer is more than capable of exposing this, just like he’s done in the past.

Last season, he had rushing totals of 212 and 127 yards in two separate games, and cleared 70+ rushing yards six times. If the passing game is bottled up as I expect, Mateer will take matters into his hands, or in this case, his own legs.