Canelo vs Crawford: Expert Prediction, Latest Odds & How to Watch Tonight’s Netflix Showdown

• Canelo dropped from -240 to -165 with sharp money still backing the favorite
• Main event ring walks expected around 11 PM ET on Netflix
• Our pick: Canelo by decision at +125 odds

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Canelo Alvarez defends his undisputed super middleweight championship against Terence Crawford tonight in Las Vegas. The fight streams exclusively on Netflix, marking another major shift in how boxing reaches fans.

The betting line tells an interesting story. Canelo opened as a heavy -240 favorite, but public money on Crawford has pushed the line down to -165. According to DraftKings, professional bettors continue backing Canelo despite the movement. When sharps and the public disagree, the smart money usually knows something.

Jump to: Expert Prediction | Latest Odds | How to Watch | Tale of the Tape | Canelo Analysis | Crawford Analysis | Fight Card

Expert Canelo vs Crawford Prediction

• Pick: Canelo by Decision (+125 at Bet365)

The pattern is clear: Canelo hasn’t knocked anyone out since Caleb Plant in 2021. His last four fights all went the full 12 rounds, and that’s by design. At super middleweight, he’s become a calculated boxer who breaks opponents down gradually rather than hunting for the highlight-reel finish.

Crawford faces the challenge of his career tonight, jumping from 154 to 168 pounds. That’s two full weight classes, and history shows us that power rarely travels up effectively. His impressive 75% knockout rate came against welterweights and junior middleweights, not guys who walk around at 185-190 pounds like Canelo does.

Two of the best in the game, two pound-for-pound legends.👑

History in the making. 🙌#CaneloCrawford pic.twitter.com/BNT58kEb92

— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) September 12, 2025

Expect Crawford to have success early. He’s the faster fighter with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, and his ability to switch stances will cause problems initially. But Canelo’s investment in body shots will pay dividends as the fight progresses. By round seven or eight, Crawford’s movement will slow, and Canelo will take control.

The oddsmakers agree this goes the distance at -380. With Canelo’s recent pattern of decision wins and Crawford’s proven durability, the +125 price on Canelo by decision offers excellent value.

• Final Score Prediction: Canelo wins 116-112 or 115-113 on all three cards.

Latest Canelo vs Crawford Odds

Professional bettors continue backing Canelo at -165 while recreational players love Crawford’s underdog story. Based on these odds, Canelo has roughly a 62% chance to win, while Crawford sits at 41% as he attempts something no fighter has done before: become a three-division undisputed champion in the four-belt era.

The -380 price on the fight going 12 rounds tells you everything about how this plays out.

How to Watch Canelo vs Crawford

Where: Netflix (no pay-per-view fee)
Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025
Prelims: 7 PM ET on Netflix Tudum
Main Card: 9 PM ET on Netflix
Main Event: Approximately 11 PM ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

What time does the fight start tonight? The main card kicks off at 9 PM ET, but Canelo and Crawford won’t enter the ring until around 11 PM ET. If you’re just tuning in for the main event, plan accordingly.

Where to watch Canelo fight: Netflix has exclusive rights, and there’s no additional PPV charge. Just log into your account and stream the fight on Netflix tonight. After Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson drew 60 million viewers, Netflix committed heavily to live boxing.

Where is the Canelo fight? Allegiant Stadium hosts its first boxing event tonight. The Raiders’ home venue can hold 65,000 fans, and the venue where Canelo is fighting tonight could set a new gate record for the sport.

Tale of the Tape

The key difference? Canelo has lived at this weight for seven years. Crawford has never been here before.

Canelo Alvarez Betting Analysis

At 168 pounds, Canelo Alvarez owns an 11-0 record with victories over every top contender. Canelo Alvarez’s record overall stands at 63-2-2, with both losses coming at different weight classes. He lost to Mayweather at 154 and Bivol at 175, but nobody has beaten him at super middleweight.

Canelo’s last fight against William Scull followed the same script as his previous three: win rounds, invest in the body, cruise to a decision. Since stopping Plant, all Canelo fights have gone 12 rounds. He’s not gun-shy; he’s smart. Why take risks when you can systematically break opponents down?

The body attack defines Canelo’s approach now. His left hook to the liver dropped Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant, and it’s slowed every opponent he’s faced at 168. Crawford has dealt with body punchers before, but never from someone with Canelo’s combination of power and precision at this weight.

Canelo stats reveal his durability: never knocked down in 67 professional fights despite facing Golovkin twice, Bivol, and other massive punchers. How old is Canelo Alvarez? At 35, he’s in his prime years for a super middleweight, with the perfect blend of experience and physical ability.

Did Canelo win his last outing? Yes, a clear unanimous decision in May. Canelo fight record shows he’s virtually unbeatable at his preferred weight, having figured out the formula for success at 168 pounds.

Terence Crawford Betting Analysis

Terence Crawford enters with boxing’s most impressive active unbeaten streak at 41-0. But Bud Crawford built that record fighting smaller men. Tonight’s jump from 154 to 168 pounds asks him to do something that rarely works in boxing history.

Crawford possesses elite skills that translate across weight classes: his reach, ring IQ, and ability to switch stances mid-combination. The Crawford fight tonight tests whether those attributes can overcome a significant size and power disadvantage.

His last performance raised questions. Against Israil Madrimov at 154, Crawford looked hesitant and won a close decision that could have gone either way. If he shows similar reluctance at Crawford fight time against Canelo’s heavier hands, the night could end badly.

How old is Terence Crawford? At 37, he’s attempting this weight jump two years older than Canelo. That’s not ideal timing for such an ambitious move. Terence Crawford’s net worth will increase significantly win or lose, but legacy matters more than money at this stage.

The weigh-in revealed everything: Crawford hit exactly 167.5 pounds, the division limit. He maxed out his frame to get there, while Canelo comfortably makes the weight after walking around much heavier. There’s a crucial difference between stretching to make weight and naturally belonging there.

Complete Fight Card Tonight

Main Card Canelo vs Crawford (9 PM ET on Netflix)

Main Event: Canelo vs Crawford fight
Undisputed Super Middleweight Championship
What time is the Canelo fight tonight? Approximately 11 PM ET for ring walks

Co-Main: Callum Walsh (-335) vs Fernando Vargas Jr. (+240)
Super Welterweight – 10 Rounds

Featured Bout: Christian Mbilli (-172) vs Lester Martinez (+134)
WBC Interim Super Middleweight Title

Opening Bout: Mohammed Alakel vs John Ornelas
Lightweight – 10 Rounds

Canelo Undercard Analysis

The Canelo vs Crawford undercard delivers genuine quality. Walsh vs Vargas Jr. features two undefeated prospects with serious power. Walsh trains under Freddie Roach at Wild Card Gym, while Vargas Jr. carries his Hall of Fame father’s name into battle.

Mbilli vs Martinez on the Canelo Crawford card could produce fireworks. They’ve combined for 40 knockouts, and neither man knows how to take a backward step. The winner earns a future shot at tonight’s main event victor.

Who else is fighting tonight? The Canelo vs Crawford prelims include Olympic medalists and up-and-coming prospects, making this one of the best boxing cards of the year. Turki Alalshikh and Dana White put together the lineup through their new Zuffa Boxing project, bringing some UFC-style promotion to boxing.

Complete Viewing Schedule

When is Canelo fight? Tonight, September 13, 2025. For those asking what time does Canelo fight start, the main card begins at 9 PM ET, but his actual walk happens around 11 PM ET.

At what time is the Canelo fight for West Coast viewers? 8 PM PT for the main event.

When does Canelo fight start exactly? After three undercard bouts, so timing depends on those fights. What time will Canelo fight start if everything runs on schedule? Between 11 and 11:30 PM ET. For those wondering what time Canelo vs Crawford fight begins, same window.

Where is Canelo vs Crawford taking place? Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, marking the venue’s first boxing event.

Where is the Canelo Crawford fight for those driving in? Paradise, Nevada, right off I-15.

What time is the main event fight tonight for international viewers? Do the math from 11 PM ET. The Canelo vs Crawford main event time won’t change, barring early knockouts on the undercard. What time is Canelo fighting in the UK? 4 AM Sunday morning.

What This Fight Means

By midnight tonight, we’ll know who won the Canelo Crawford fight. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Crawford aims to become boxing’s first three-division undisputed champion in the four-belt era. Canelo wants to prove his super middleweight dominance against the sport’s pound-for-pound king.

This fight is about more than just titles. Both Canelo and Crawford are already wealthy and headed for the Hall of Fame. Tonight is about their legacy. Whoever wins will be remembered as the top fighter of this generation.

Tonight’s fight matters because it’s the best against the best, with no excuses. There are no catch-weights, no rehydration rules, nothing extra—just two legends settling things in the ring.

Watch Canelo vs Crawford live on Netflix with no PPV charge. The fight tonight on Netflix includes the full card starting at 7 PM ET with prelims. How to watch Canelo fight couldn’t be simpler: just log into Netflix. For those asking Canelo fight where to watch, it’s Netflix exclusive worldwide.

The Netflix boxing match model changes everything. No $80 PPV fees, no complicated sign-ups, just boxing available to all subscribers. After tonight, we’ll see if this becomes the new normal.

Odds as of September 13, 2025. Visit boxing betting apps for the latest boxing odds. The Canelo vs Crawford records speak for themselves: 63-2-2 meets 41-0. Stream on Netflix at no additional cost. Gamble responsibly.