NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 4: Predictions for TD Props

• Sportsbooks have made NFL touchdown props widely available for all Week 4 games
• With a few games played, we can now see usage, especially red zone and goal line usage, trends coming together, providing bettors with great data for betting TD props
• Check out the players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 4 below

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As we approach Week 4 of the 2025-26 NFL season, it is becoming more and more clear which offenses you can count on, which offenses you should avoid, and which defenses you should target when betting NFL touchdown props. However, the sportsbooks also know this, and we’re starting to see some shorter anytime TD odds for the more consistent touchdown scorers.

But if you have the time to dive deeper into the stats, there are still some players the sportsbooks have not caught up with yet in their TD betting markets, as well as some players who are either off to uncharacteristically rough starts or just starting to break out. I believe I have identified a bunch of these for Week 4, and have shared my most confident NFL touchdown picks below.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 4

I currently have nine players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 4 of the 2025-26 NFL season. All of the picks above are half-unit bets, except for Jordan Mason and Jalen Hurts, who are full-unit bets, James Cook and Josh Jacobs are 1.5-unit bets, while Tory Horton was just a 0.33-unit risk. As usual, these are all anytime TD scorer picks. I do not bet first TD scorers – the market is too unpredictable and I rarely find value in the odds.

I will be adding some more for the Sunday afternoon block, as well as the SNF game and MNF doubleheader. Be sure to check back for the extra picks ahead of those games!

If you want to bet more than NFL TD props, you can see all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders on our NFL props page.

I went an ugly 3-6 on touchdown picks last week, losing 0.62 units. It was a frustrating one, as I watched Kareem Hunt score Kansas City’s touchdown, not Isiah Pacheco, and Jaylen Warren dominate snaps and touches, but Kenneth Gainwell gets the carry from the one-yard-line for a touchdown.

I think I have made good reads again for Week 4, but just need a little better touchdown luck. You can read my data-based analysis and justification for each TD pick below.

Jordan Mason

Jordan Mason has dominated Minnesota’s red zone touches and even total touches. Mason has seen seven of their 19 red zone looks and handled 37.1% of their total touches. Though he only has a touchdown in one of three games this season, both of them came last week as their offense broke out against the Bengals.

I think Mason has a great opportunity to replicate that performance against another not-so-great defense in Week 4.

With Carson Wentz at QB last week, Jordan Mason saw four of the team’s 11 red zone looks and two of their three goal line looks. The RB handled 34% of Minnesota’s total touches, but Zavier Scott and Cam Akers also combined for 29.7% of their touches because the game was so out of reach early. A good chunk of those touches likely would have gone to Mason as well, had the game been competitive.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 25, 2025 at 2:35pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

-110 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758810941549-5a21-980

The Steelers have allowed 10 touchdowns this season and I don’t believe they have played a great offense yet. Seattle is probably the best of the bunch, who scored four touchdowns against them, but the Patriots and Jets also combined for six. Four of those TDs have come on the ground, and Pittsburgh is giving up 4.3 rushing yards per attempt.

I don’t think Kevin O’Connell will want to give TJ Watt many opportunities to pressure Wentz in the red zone, and will opt to lean on Mason in that area.

• Pick: Jordan Mason Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton has seen a team-high eight red zone looks and four (of six total) goal line looks through three weeks. As it appeared the rookie might start seeing fewer looks, with Najee Harris fully healthy, Harris suffered a season-ending injury last week, leaving Hampton with Hassan Haskins as his main competition for touches.

Against a Giants team that has allowed 5.2 rushing yards per attempt, a touchdown on 80% of their opponent’s red zone drives, and five rushing touchdowns this season, it feels like Hampton’s anytime TD odds should be closer to -150.

Hampton only scored his first touchdown of the season last week, but he has faced some pretty good run defenses so far this season. The Giants are not a good run defense, and I think Hampton helps run the score up for the Chargers by finding the endzone at least once.

• Pick: Omarion Hampton Anytime TD (-105 at Fanatics) – register with Fanatics Sportsbook to tail this pick now!

Keenan Allen

The safer anytime touchdown play in this game is Omarion Hampton, as mentioned above, but I can’t look away from Keenan Allen at +225 odds.

Allen is tied for second on the team with five red zone looks and he has seen a team-high 9.3 targets per game. That’s actually good for 8th-best in the NFL as well.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 25, 2025 at 2:58pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants

225 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758812310739-5a21-683

The veteran wide receiver has a touchdown in all three games this season, and I cannot believe bet365 is still offering odds as long as +225. The next-best price is +175, while most sportsbooks have him around +160.

• Pick: Keenan Allen Anytime TD (+225 at bet365)

Jalen Hurts

The Eagles at Buccaneers game features two good defenses that do not give up many touchdowns. The Bucs defense has only allowed a touchdown on 42.9% of their opponents’ red zone drives, which ties them for the fifth-best rate in that category. However, I think the Eagles’ Tush Push is too difficult to stop and will be what the Eagles lean on to keep the chains moving, and power forward when they find themselves in a goal line scenario.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 25, 2025 at 3:17pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-125 on Fanatics

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758813478545-5a21-610

Jalen Hurts has seen 10 of Philadelphia’s 30 red zone looks and five of their 12 goal line looks. He leads the team with four touchdowns and has at least one TD in all three games this season. I like Hurts to extend his TD streak to four games in Week 4.

• Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-125 at Fanatics)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

In spite of Chris Rodriguez leading the Commanders backfield with 11 rushing attempts last week, the first game without Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was second with eight carries and the rookie actually played one more snap than Rodriguez.

I have said this before, and was proven wrong in Week 2, but I still believe we’re going to see the Commanders shift more and more of their snaps and touches towards Croskey-Merritt. He’s the most patient and explosive of the bunch, which makes him a great fit for Washington run scheme.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 25, 2025 at 3:29pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons

175 on ESPN BET

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758814177317-5a21-780

JCM leads the team with four red zone looks and has seen two of their five goal line looks. He has scored a touchdown in two of three games this season, and I like him to score another TD against a Falcons defense that is allowing TDs on 60% of their opponents’ red zone drives.

• Pick: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD (+175 at ESPN Bet)

James Cook

James Cook has opened the 2025-26 NFL season with a touchdown in all three games and four total touchdowns, tying him for the league lead. He has seen a team-high 14 red zone looks, which is also fourth-most in the NFL, and is second to Josh Allen in goal line looks, with four to Allen’s five.

Cook is preparing for a Saints defense that has allowed:

• 10 total touchdowns
• TDs on 80% of their opponents’ red zone drives

I do appreciate that they only surrender 3.6 yards per carry, third-fewest in the league, and only two rushing touchdowns. However, Christian McCaffrey averaged 4.2 yards per rushing attempt against them, and their other two opponents (Seattle and Arizona) have not run the ball well against anyone. Buffalo’s offensive line is among the league’s best, and the threat of Josh Allen’s arm and legs will help further open things up for Cook.

Most sportsbooks are listing Cook at -200 odds or shorter to score a touchdown. I think that’s even a bit too long. I feel Cook’s true probability of scoring a touchdown is around 70%, which converts to -233 odds. That’s why I’m laying 1.5 units on Cook at -175 odds.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-175 at ESPN Bet) – use our ESPN promo code to sign up and tail this bet!

Daniel Jones

While I do think Kyren Williams scores a touchdown in this game, I don’t like the -170 odds sportsbooks are offering. Williams is far from the only player I think will score a touchdown in the Colts vs Rams Week 4 matchup, though. I also like Daniel Jones based on the +210 odds bet365 is offering for him to score a TD.

Jones has a touchdown in two of three games this season and has scored three TDs total. He’s actually being asked to run the ball a fair bit. Here are some of his rushing stats for the season:

• 17 rushing attempts (2nd on team; tied for 9th in NFL among QBs)
• 9 red zone looks (2nd on team; tied for 2nd in NFL among QBs)
• 4 goal line looks (2nd on team; 40% of team’s goal line looks; 3rd in NFL among QBs)
• 10.4% of team’s total touches (2nd)

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 25, 2025 at 6:17pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams

210 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758824248390-5a21-377

We can use the Colts game against the Broncos game to see how Shane Steichen operated in the red zone and goal line against a defense that’s both good against the run and can also apply a lot of pressure to the QB. Jonathan Taylor saw a team-high five red zone looks, while Jones saw four himself – five other players each saw one red zone look. What’s even more interesting is that Jones saw both of their goal line looks.

Steichen did not want to give a good Broncos defense an opportunity at producing a negative play, and I think he’ll operate with a similar mindset against the Rams. LA has only allowed 3.86 yards per rushing attempt, six total touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and a TD on 57.1% of their opponents’ red zone drives.

I think we’ll either see a Jones QB sneak or a fake to Taylor with Jones keeping it for a touchdown on Sunday. They’ll need to use some misdirection against a pretty tough Rams defense.

• Pick: Daniel Jones Anytime TD (+210 at bet365)

Derrick Henry

Admittedly, I came to this game thinking I was going to bet Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown, because I feel teams are overcommitting to stop Derrick Henry in goal line situations. However, when I saw ESPN Bet offering Henry to score a touchdown at -135 odds, when most other sportsbooks have him between -160 and -170, and I couldn’t turn it down.

Henry leads the Ravens in red zone looks, goal like looks, and touchdowns. The veteran RB is coming off another horrific fumble that played a big role in Baltimore’s loss to the Lions last week, marking his third straight game with a fumble, but I do not think the Ravens move away from him. He’s too valuable of a piece to their offense, and Justice Hill is not going to give them anywhere near the production Henry does.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 25, 2025 at 6:40pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

-135 on ESPN BET

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758825648832-5a21-964

Henry has scored a touchdown in two of three games this season, and has three total TDs. The Chiefs have been pretty good against the run this year, only allowing 3.98 yards per attempt, but I’m not betting Henry to rack up a bunch of yards. I just like Baltimore to give him at least one goal line touch that he will capitalize on.

• Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-135 at ESPN Bet)

D’Andre Swift

While there were concerns of D’Andre Swift not being seen as a lead back by Ben Johnson in the offseason, the first three weeks of the season have silenced that talk. Swift has handled 42 of 55 running back carries, and has only seen four fewer targets than DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus this season. He also leads the team in red zone looks and is tied for the team-lead with one goal line look.

All the touches have not led to a ton of success on the ground, as he only averages 3.5 yards per rush, rookie Kyle Monangai isn’t finding success either, as he averages 0.1 yards per rush fewer than Swift. The veteran RB has scored one touchdown this season, but the offense only has a total of seven in three games. But I think the Bears rushing attack has an opportunity to break out a little against the Raiders in Week 4.

Las Vegas is allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 5.95 net yards per play, which is fifth-worst in the NFL. I think Chicago is slowly putting things together in Ben Johnson’s offense, and I like their workhorse to benefit from it against what I believe is a defense comparable to the one they just scored four TDs against last week – at the very least, the Raiders defense is notably worse than the Vikings and Lions, who they saw in the first two weeks.

• Pick: D’Andre Swift Anytime TD (+145 at ESPN Bet)

Josh Jacobs

When I got to the Packers at Cowboys SNF matchup, I expected I would have to figure out which non-Josh Jacobs Packer I wanted to bet to score a touchdown, as I assumed his odds would be too short. My expectations were originally confirmed when I saw sportsbooks listing him as short as -250, which I don’t think presents value, but then I found ESPN Bet just dangling Jacobs at -175 odds to score a touchdown.

Just like the Derrick Henry pick above, I could not pass up this price.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 26, 2025 at 2:30pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Player Prop

NFL • Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

-175 on ESPN BET

SCHEDULED • 09/29/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758897006488-5a21-644

The Packers offense runs through Jacobs. Only Christian McCaffrey (47.8%) and Bucky Irving (47.3%) see a bigger percentage of their respective team’s touches than Jacobs (46%).

Green Bay also feeds him in the red zone, where he has seen 12 of the team’s 27 looks, and goal line, where he has seen four of their six total looks. Jacobs has turned all the volume into two touchdowns this season, scoring in two of three games.

Though Dallas has been pretty good against the run this season, only allowing 3.74 rushing yards per attempt, I like the Packers to come out strong after a bad loss, while also looking to bury the Cowboys for their new teammate Micah Parsons. I think they’ll have their best offensive game of the season and Jacobs will score at least one of their touchdowns.

If you cannot get the -175 odds on Jacobs, I would not bet him any shorter than -190. If his odds become too short by the time you’re reading this, I would take a look at Tucker Kraft instead, as long as he’s still available at +200 odds or longer.

• Pick: Josh Jacobs Anytime TD (-175 at ESPN Bet)

De’Von Achane

With Tua Tagovailoa apparently unable to push the ball down the field anymore, De’Von Achane has become a huge part of Miami’s offense. Achane handles 40.3% of their total touches and is tied for the team-lead with two touchdowns. He has scored a TD in two of three games this season.

Achane is tied for second on the team with three red zone looks but has not seen any of their four goal line looks. This one doesn’t bother me, because we haven’t really seen Miami show much explosion out of their offense yet. They were going through something in the first two weeks of the season, but put together a pretty respectable performance against the Bills last week.

I think this is the first week we see some big chunks being taken by the Dolphins offense, with Achane being one of the beneficiaries. The Jets are allowing 31 points per game, tied for fourth-most, and I don’t think their defense is getting any better.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-105 at ESPN Bet)

Ollie Gordon

I’m betting a second Dolphin to score a touchdown on MNF, because I think the sportsbooks are way off with their odds for Ollie Gordon to score a TD.

The rookie has handled two of Miami’s four goal line looks and leads the team with four red zone looks. What’s even more encouraging about those numbers is that both of the goal line looks, and three of the four red zone looks, came last week.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 26, 2025 at 2:43pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

285 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 09/29/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758897833221-5a21-311

Gordon had only handled five total touches through the first two weeks, but Mike McDaniel obviously felt the need to get the bruising RB more involved, giving him nine total touches last week. It paid off as Gordon scored his first NFL touchdown and also recorded their longest rush of the night (16 yards) for Miami.

Up against a bad Jets defense, I think there’s plenty of room for both Achane and Gordon to score a touchdown.

• Pick: Ollie Gordon Anytime TD (+285 at DraftKings)

JK Dobbins

Admittedly, there was a part of me that wanted to bet Troy Franklin to score a touchdown in this game at +250, or even Courtland Sutton at +140 for a better payout. But JK Dobbins, in spite of being listed at much shorter -135 odds, is not only the most likely candidate to score a touchdown in the second MNF game of Week 4, but he also presents the best value.

Dobbins leads the Broncos with seven red zone looks, the rest of the team has combined for 11, and has seen three of their seven goal line looks. The result has been a touchdown in all three games for Dobbins to start the season.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 26, 2025 at 3:43pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Game Prop

NFL • Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

-125 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 09/30/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758901385326-5a21-402

While I do think rookie RJ Harvey is going to eventually start eating into more of Dobbins’ work, it doesn’t seem like Sean Payton is in any rush to make that change. Dobbins has been quite efficient running the ball, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and is the far superior option at the moment for pass protection.

I think he’ll have a great opportunity to continue to impress in Week 4 against Cincinnati. The Bengals are allowing a touchdown on 64.3% of their opponents’ red zone drives, and have surrendered an average of 30.3 points per game. They are average-at-best against both the run and pass, and I think their offensive struggles will continue, likely setting Denver up with good starting field position often.

• Pick: JK Dobbins Anytime TD (-125 at bet365)

Tory Horton

Of all the touchdown picks in this article, this is the one I am least confident in. I have still bet it, but want to be transparent that I don’t love it – just like it.

The reason for that is both these teams have been pretty good defensively. Seattle is tied with three other teams for allowing the fewest total touchdowns this season (just 4), while the Cardinals have only allowed five. Both defenses have stiffened up in the red zone, as they are both in the top four for opponent red zone touchdown percentage – Arizona allows a TD on 41.7% of their opponent’s red zone drives, while Seattle allows one on 40%.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 25, 2025 at 2:15pm

Pick

Odds

Player

Player Prop

NFL • Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

450 on ESPN BET

CLOSED • 09/26/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758809755215-5a21-817

I still like this pick, though, because neither team has faced very good offenses yet. Each of them have played the Saints and 49ers – the Seahawks did have to deal with Brock Purdy under center, but the Cardinals got Mac Jones – and Seattle’s third game came against the Steelers, while Arizona’s was the Panthers.

Looking at the nine touchdowns these two have surrendered, eight of them have come through the air. Again, part of that could be the offenses they have played, but I think the TD odds for Trey Benson, Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet (questionable) are all a little too short for me. So, I’m looking to some pass-catchers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba dominates the targets in Seattle, but he has only seen two red zone looks this season and has one touchdown. His +165 odds to score a TD are also a little too short for me. Instead, I’m looking to Tory Horton, who is tied for the team-lead with three touchdowns this season. The rookie has a touchdown in two of three games, which is each of his last two.

Horton also played in a season-high 53.8% of Seattle’s offensive snaps last week, and I think he’ll continue seeing more opportunities as he continues to produce. I’m betting Horton to score a touchdown in his third straight game tonight!

• Tory Horton Anytime TD (+450 at ESPN Bet)