Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Picks, Predictions, Odds & How to Watch
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Jacksonville State is a 7-point favorite over Sam Houston State in Conference USA action tonight
- The Bearkats are allowing 41.6 points per game this season
- See below for my Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and how to watch
The NFL isn’t the only football in town tonight, as there are multiple college games to sweat as well. My favorite contest to bet is the Jacksonville State (2-3, 1-0 CUSA) vs Sam Houston (0-5, 0-2 CUSA) matchup, because of the value I see on the Gamecocks now that the line has dropped in the latest college football odds.
Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Picks
This game opened Jacksonville State -8.5, but the line has moved towards Sam Houston ever since. It now sits at the Gamecocks -7 at some books, which marks the time to start buying the favorite.
There are multiple reasons why I’m taking the Gamecocks in my Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston picks, but the state of the Bearkats defense trumps them all. This unit is flat-out atrocious. They enter play yielding 41.6 points per game, and that’s despite facing four opponents ranked 75th in the country or worse.
Sam Houston is 132nd in points allowed per drive, and has five straight losses of 17+ points. The Bearkats pass defense is one of the worst in the nation, and while their run defense grades out respectively, it’s important to note they haven’t faced a dominant rushing offense to date.
Sam Houston Defensive Stats
That is, until now. The Gamecocks rank seventh in rushing yards per game, and 21st in yards per carry. Only four teams run more often, and Sam Houston will have to deal with the conference’s leading rusher in Cam Cook, as well as dual-threat QB Gavin Wimsatt.
When Wimsatt does go to the air, the door is open for a ceiling performance. The Bearkats are surrendering 308.4 passing yards per game and 9.0 yards per attempt.
Jacksonville State is going to have no issues building a margin in this game, and shouldn’t face very much resistance from a Sam Houston offense that is among the worst in the country.
Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Predictions
Prior to a second-quarter field goal last week versus New Mexico, the Bearkats had gone five straight quarters without scoring a point. They enter play ranked 129th in points per drive, while QB Hunter Watson has thrown only 1 TD pass all year.
Sam Houston grades out in the bottom-25 in passing success rate, and 129th in total offense. The Jacksonville State defense is by no means a juggernaut, but they play the run well and do a decent job creating pressure.
That will be more than enough to limit Watson and Co, as the Senior QB is void of playmakers around him. No Bearkat player other than Watson has accounted for more than one touchdown, while Watson is completing just 58.6% of his throws.
One last reason to fade Sam Houston is the lack of a home-field advantage. This contest, while technically a home game, is being played 70 miles away from campus as their stadium undergoes renovations. I wouldn’t hesitate to lay the 7 points in this spot, as the Bearkats have yet to show a pulse all season.
Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Odds
The best odds we can get on Jacksonville State -7 is -110 at Caesars. The Gamecocks are -280 moneyline favorites, while the total currently sits at 54.5. Per the college football public betting trends, Sam Houston is 0-5 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 13.8 points per game.
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Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston How to Watch
Kickoff for this Conference USA matchup is set for 8 pm ET from Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
