Boise State vs Nevada Prediction & Top Betting Trends for Friday Night MWC

• Boise State is a massive 21.5-point road favorite when it visits Nevada Friday night
• The Broncos sit in first place with a perfect 3-0 mark in Mountain West action
• See below for my Boise State vs Nevada prediction, trends and updated odds

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It’s a major mismatch in Mountain West play Friday night. The Boise State Broncos (5-2, 3-0 Mountain West) visit the Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6, 0-3 Mountain West) in what shapes up as a lopsided affair.

Nevada, last in the conference, is a massive home underdog against the first-place Broncos in the college football odds. Our prediction model points to a comfortable Boise State victory.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10pm ET from Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV. CBS Sports Network provides the broadcast coverage.

Boise State vs Nevada Prediction

• Prediction: Boise State -21.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Normally, I’d be wary of a line this large. But this prediction comes easy when you look at Boise State’s dominance.

They’re second in Mountain West scoring at 36.9 points per game. The Broncos are the only team in the conference ranking inside the Top 3 in both rushing yards (205.6) and passing yards (273.0) per contest.

Long gone is that opening week 34-7 upset at the hands of South Florida. The Broncos have ripped off five wins in their last six games. They’ve won all three conference games by double digits.

Last week’s 56-31 demolition of UNLV was their highest scoring output of the year. Dylan Riley exploded for 201 yards on just 15 carries, averaging 13.4 yards per attempt.

Their only recent loss was to then-No. 21 Notre Dame. Even that was competitive until Maddux Madsen threw four interceptions.

Nevada Struggles Validate Our Prediction

There’s not much good news for Nevada. The Wolf Pack owns a single win on the year against FCS-level Sacramento State.

Since that Week 2 victory, they’ve lost five straight. The last three were all conference defeats.

If there’s any silver lining, three of their five losses have been by three points or less. But our game prediction suggests this won’t be that close.

Nevada is the lowest-scoring team in Mountain West at 15.6 points per game. Their running game ranks 10th in the conference. They’re dead last in passing, producing just 159 yards.

Freshman quarterback Carter Jones has shown flashes, completing 64.9% of his passes. But he’s been much better in the middle quarters than in crunch time according to the game notes.

This prediction looks straightforward Friday night.

Boise State vs Nevada Betting Trends

The most notable trend supporting our prediction? The Broncos are 5-1 against the spread as favorites this year.

Their only loss was the Week 1 upset. Since then, they’ve covered as double-digit favorites in five straight games, including as 33-point favorites against Eastern Washington.

The Broncos have also been solid for the Over, cashing five times in seven games this season. Madsen is 18-4 as a starter with the Broncos winning by an average of 24.6 points in victories this year.

The Wolf Pack have been double-digit underdogs three times this year with a 3-0 ATS record in those games. That’s the trend working against our blowout prediction.

Overall, Nevada is 3-4 ATS and 0-3 at home this season. Five of their seven games have cashed the Under.

Boise State dominates this series historically, going 8-2 over the last 10 games and 7-3 ATS. They’ve won 18 of 20 meetings since 1999, making this prediction feel even safer.

Boise State vs Nevada Betting Odds

As of early Friday night, the line has settled at 21.5 points. That’s down from 23 points earlier in the week when some sites opened at 23.5.

The moneyline is a no-go if you’re backing Boise. They’re -1800 to win outright. DraftKings offers a far more generous number than FanDuel, where it’s a juiceless -2200.

The total sits at 51.5 points. Shop around and you can find it a half-point in either direction.

Final Prediction Analysis

Despite the line moving toward Nevada, my prediction remains firm. Boise State should dominate in Reno.

The Broncos have championship aspirations with Chris Marshall averaging 20 yards per catch and Riley running wild. Nevada’s minus-9 turnover margin (fifth worst in FBS) and Dylan LaBarbera being their only bright spot on defense won’t be enough.

Stick with the prediction: Boise State covers the 21.5 points.

Odds as of Oct. 24 at DraftKings. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.