Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction, Pick & Betting Lines for MNF

• The Chiefs are 11.5-point favorites over the Commanders on Monday Night Football
• Jayden Daniels is out (hamstring) paving the way for Marcus Mariota to make his third start of the season
• See my Commanders vs Chiefs predictions and picks below, plus the latest betting lines for Monday Night Football

It’s not often I recommend laying double-digit points. Monday will be one the rare instances where I do. That’s because the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, 3-1 home) have morphed back into a Super Bowl contender, and they’ll face a Washington Commanders (3-4, 1-3 away) team that’s down their starting quarterback, and whose defense can’t stop a nosebleed.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City, MO, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

The big injury news ahead of this game is the health of Jayden Daniels. Last year’s rookie of the year suffered a hamstring injury in Week 7 and will miss his third game of the season. Marcus Mariota will start in his place, and will have a healthy group of receivers to throw to. Both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel will return to action on Monday Night Football, after the ladder missed last week’s loss, and the former has been out since Week 3.

On the KC side, they’ll be down two starting linemen for the second straight week. Both Josh Simmons (personal) and Trey Smith (back) will sit again, but their absences didn’t slow down the Chiefs in Week 7, and I don’t envision it being an issue on MNF either.

Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction

Fun fact: Last week Kansas City had more first downs (31) than the Raiders ran plays (30). The Chiefs outgained Las Vegas 434 to 90 en route to a 31-0 victory, and it got so bad that KC was taking knees to burn the clock with more than a handful of minutes remaining.

Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs offense has resembled a Super Bowl 60 odds contender, which has led to them winning three times in their last four games by 13+ points. Patrick Mahomes has the second highest success rate among active quarterbacks, and has 11 TD passes in his last four games.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Stats

His life got a whole lot easier with the return of Rashee Rice last week from suspension, as now he finally has an elite receiver to work over the middle to compliment Worthy’s speed. Rice scored twice in his season debut against the Raiders, and the whole offense is primed for a big night against Washington’s dreadful defense.

That unit coughed up 44 points and 409 yards of offense to Dallas last week, and my Commanders vs Chiefs prediction is betting on a similar outcome. Over the past four weeks, Washington’s defense ranks bottom-five in both points and yards allowed. They’ve forced only three turnovers all season, and rank 31st in coverage.

Commanders vs Chiefs Picks

I’m expecting a blowout in my Commanders vs Chiefs picks, laying the 11.5-points with KC. You can still find a Chiefs -11 at BetRivers, but I’d even consider taking some alt lines to boost your KC payday. The Chiefs have averaged 31.5 points over their past four games, and Mahomes looks like a top contender again in the NFL MVP odds.

Mariota has proven he’s not a starting caliber QB time and time again since entering the league, and the KC defense is going to be able to pin its ears back and pressure him relentlessly once the Chiefs establish a comfortable lead.

Commanders vs Chiefs Betting Lines

Before making any Monday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. Most sportsbooks have KC favored by 11.5 points in the MNF odds, but there are some shops like BetRivers that are lagging behind. Total-wise, the over/under currently sits at 48, a number I think is a hair too high.

Odds as of Oct. 26 at bet365. MO residents can check out the latest on bet365 Missouri ahead of launch this December.

According to the NFL public betting percentages, overs in Chiefs home games are not a common occurrence in the Mahomes era. Just 20 of the past 55 KC home games have gone over the number, despite the Chiefs routinely boasting one of the best offenses.

The reason is simple. KC builds a lead in the first two and half to three quarters, and then plays bully ball by going on long drives to kill the clock, and keep the other offense off the field.