Musetti vs Fritz Odds, Picks & Predictions for ATP Finals

• Taylor Fritz is a -213 moneyline favorite over Lorenzo Musetti on Day 2 of the ATP Finals
• Musetti has won each of his last three matches against the American
• See the full Musetti vs Fritz odds below, plus my picks and predictions

What better way to cure your Monday morning football hangover than with some high level men’s tennis. Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz will take the court right around breakfast time, giving us something to sweat with our first cup of coffee of the day.

Online sportsbooks have pegged Fritz as a hefty moneyline favorite, which seems disrespectful to Musetti based on his recent form compared to the American’s.

The action is set to get underway at 8 am ET, with live coverage available on the Tennis Channel.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz Odds

Fritz is currently a -213 moneyline favorite, and is laying 2.5 games on the spread. Musetti comes back as a +173 underdog, while the match features a 23.5 game total.

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Musetti vs Fritz Picks and Predictions

• Over 23.5 Games (-120 at bet365)

Up until Saturday, Musetti wasn’t a guaranteed a spot in the year end showcase. He needed to win the ATP 250 event in Athens in order to qualify, but he finished just short losing to Novak Djokovic in the final. Djokovic however, pulled out of the ATP Finals immediately after Athens, opening the door for Musetti to take his place.

Now, the Italian looks to take advantage of his second chance. He’s been a busy man recently, playing in four consecutive events without a rest leading into this tournament. He’s reached the quarterfinal stage in three of the four tournaments, posting a final four finish in Vienna to go along with his runner-up result this weekend.

Fritz on the other hand, hasn’t played more than two matches in any of his last three events. He lost to Alexander Bublik in Paris two weeks ago, and was upset in the round of 16 and 32 respectively in his prior two starts. To say his game isn’t sharp would be an understatement, but at the very least he’ll be well rested ahead of this match thanks to his recent early exits.

The surface favors Fritz, as hardcourt is his specialty. He’s got a .706 career winning percentage on that surface, and beat Musetti in their only hardcourt match three years ago.

Musetti grew up playing on clay, but has taken big strides in improving his hardcourt game. He’s 22-14 on the surface in 2025, and won a hardcourt title earlier this season. I’m betting that his improvement on the surface will keep this match close. He’s a live ‘dog to pull off the upset, and continue his recent dominance over Fritz.

Musetti vs Fritz Last 5 H2H Results

Musetti has won each of their last three matches, beating the American at the Olympics and at Wimbledon. He’s in better form than Fritz, but fatigue is also going to play a factor. Musetti has had his foot on the gas for the last month trying to quality for the Finals, while Fritz has been able to rest.

I see Musetti jumping out to an early lead dictating the play to Fritz until he shakes off the rust. Ultimately I expect the American to punch back, and for this match to go the distance.

I’m betting over 23.5 games as my Musetti vs Fritz prediction. On the off chance one of these guys wins in two straight tiebreaks you’ll still be covered, but you could also wager on over 2.5 sets for a juicier +110 pay day.