Alcaraz vs Musetti Predictions, Expert Picks & Betting Lines

• Carlos Alcaraz is a -720 favorite over Lorenzo Musetti on Day 5 of the ATP Finals
• Alcaraz is 6-1 all-time versus Musetti with six straight wins
• See my Alcaraz vs Musetti predictions and expert picks, plus the latest betting lines

For the first time in his career, Carlos Alcaraz is off to a 2-0 start at the ATP Finals. Online sportsbooks expect his perfect run in Italy to continue, pegging him as a massive favorite over Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday.

The action is set to get underway at 2:30 pm ET, with live coverage available on the Tennis Channel.

Alcaraz vs Musetti Predictions and Expert Picks

• Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-215 at DraftKings)

There’s plenty at stake for both players in this matchup. Alcaraz can punch his ticket to the semi-finals with a victory, while also locking up the world number one ranking. The Spaniard held top spot following his US Open triumph, but then lost it to Jannik Sinner after an early exit in Paris last month.

Musetti meanwhile, needs a victory to keep his improbable run at the season ending event alive. He was the last man to qualify for the ATP Finals, and only got in after Novak Djokovic withdrew. Musetti lost his opening match in straight sets to Taylor Fritz, and then was on the brink of elimination versus Alex de Minaur before staging a comeback.

All told, Musetti was on court for three hours against de Minaur, adding to his already high level of fatigue. The ATP Finals is Musetti’s eighth tournament since the US Open. That kind of volume over a two month stretch is unheard of in professional tennis, and the Italian had nothing left in the tank in his first match. He mustered up enough energy to stave off elimination against de Minaur, but Alcaraz is a serious step up in competition.

The six-time Grand Slam champ is a staggering 69-8 this season, with eight titles. He’s 36-6 on hard courts, capturing trophies at the US Open, Cincinnati, Tokyo and Rottedam. The Spaniard grew up on clay, but his game has transferred seamlessly over to hardcourt. Musetti on the other hand, will always be a clay court specialist, and owns just a 26-31 record on indoor hardcourts like the ones at the ATP Finals.

Even when fresh, Musetti is an extreme longshot to stay close to Alcaraz on this surface. Add fatigue into the equation and it’s no wonder the Italian is such a huge underdog. Recent form also favors Alcaraz, as does their head-to-head history.

Alcaraz vs Musetti Last 5 H2H Results

Alcaraz has lost just once since Wimbledon in tournament play, racking up three titles along the way. He’s taken down Musetti three times this season, all on clay, and owns six straight victories over the Italian. Two of those wins were on hardcourt, and Alcaraz didn’t break a sweat in either. He posted convincing straight sets victories in Miami and Beijing, and his precision, speed and power will propel him to another straight sets win over a tired Musetti on Thursday.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Betting Lines

The best place to bet Alcaraz -1.5 sets versus Musetti is over at DraftKings. The Italian is a -720 moneyline favorite, and is laying 4.5 games on the spread. Musetti comes back as a +536 underdog, while the total games is listed at 20.5.

Odds as of November 12. Get in on the action betting the ATP Finals with the DraftKings promo code.

For what it’s worth, Alcaraz and Musetti’s two hardcourt matches have both gone under 20.5 games, as did two of their three 2025 matches on clay.