Will Trump Release any of the Epstein Files? See Odds According to Predictive Market

Published: November 20, 2025 at 6:03 pm EST

Syndication: USA TODAY — Donald Trump holds hands with wife Melania at his Election Night Watch Party at the Palm Beach County Convention Center after being elected the 47th President of the United States.

Both the House and Senate have approved releasing the Epstein Files (H.R. 4405)
President Donald Trump signed the bill on Wednesday, November 19th
See odds below from Predictive Markets on when Trump might release the Epstein Files

Now, we don’t have another exciting sports bet here. Instead, let’s dig into the mud. That’s right — here comes the politics. One of the more compelling stories over what feels like decades has been Jeffrey Epstein. Epstein died on August 10th, 2019. However, the “Epstein Files” live on in perpetuity.

The Epstein Files Transparency Act was signed into law on November 19th, 2025, by President Donald J. Trump. But will Trump actually release any of the Epstein Files? That’s the question predictive markets are now betting on.

Kalshi constantly updates the numbers, odds, and graphics based on how the predictive market moves. Let’s go into the rules and what these odds mean.

Will Trump Release the Epstein Files? Understanding the Odds

According to predictive markets, the odds are increasingly in favor of a release before 2026. Currently, the “Yes before 2026” position has a 79.2% chance (80 cents on the dollar), while “No before 2026” is approximately 20.7%.

These numbers change constantly, but every percentage has trended upward over the last 24 hours. “Yes before September 2026” has inched up 2.2%, and “Yes before the Midterms” has shot up 7%. However, the biggest increase is for seeing a new release before the end of 2025 — that jump is currently 10.2% compared to early yesterday.

Market predictions as of Nov. 20, at Kalshi Sportsbook. Grab a Kalshi promo code to start trading on political markets.

Predictive Market Rules for Epstein Files Release

As with anything involving politics, there’s a complicated set of rules for what constitutes a bet resolving to “yes.” The keys are basically this: Any release must involve documents that were previously unreleased. For example, for the “Before 2026” bet to be valid and binding, it must include Epstein information linked to an associate.

Just mere mentions don’t mean anything “new.” Repackaged and reprocessed information doesn’t count. This cannot be emphasized enough.

Scenarios Where Trump May Not Release Epstein Files Immediately

There are five likely scenarios for how Trump’s release of the Epstein Files may play out, according to Axios, Fox News, and CNN.

Scenario 1: The DOJ releases all of the Epstein Files

Anything related to a federal investigation may prevent new information from being released. This has been in evidence already. Keep in mind, the 30-day clock has started. Some segments of the files can also be stalled for national security reasons. How broad that scope can be stretched remains to be seen. Investigations are well underway regarding certain entities, including J.P. Morgan Chase, Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, and others.

Scenario 2: The DOJ releases some of the Epstein Files

It’s very possible that Trump releases files that do not identify victims, medical files, or any additional identifying information. Also, there’s a loophole in national defense or foreign policy here. Any and all files must be searchable and downloadable in an easy-to-access format. That’s the law.

Scenario 3: The files are released but heavily redacted

One huge concern is that anything pertaining to a federal investigation can be redacted. Also, any classified information tied to an investigation with anything that identifies victims, etc. However, it’s worth noting that Congress would have access to all information, including complete details.

Scenario 4: Epstein Files are released at some point

Bluntly, something can only jeopardize an investigation for so long.

Scenario 5: The DOJ could just break the law

This feels like the least likely of options.

What Predictive Markets Say Trump Will Likely Do

According to predictive market odds, some mix of scenarios 2-4 is the likely result here. Think of this like a slow-dripping faucet at first. There will be times when the information flows freely. However, trending numbers suggest enough new information will be released before the end of 2025. It will result in the event contract being resolved to “yes.”

At this moment, predictive markets show that “Yes before 2026” is now at 79.2% (80 cents on the dollar), with “No before 2026” at approximately 20.7%. These odds reflect market sentiment on whether Trump will release any of the Epstein Files within the timeframe.

Speaking of elections, there are always more election odds here.

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Betting Advice on Trump Releasing Epstein Files

Everything and the kitchen sink is leaning toward resolving this event contract before the start of 2026. A few experts think this can be stalled until 2026, but that seems unlikely given current predictive market odds. We’re going to see Trump release some form of the Epstein Files in the next 30-40 days or sooner, according to the odds.

Chris Wassel

Sports Writer

A journalist veteran for over two decades, Chris has taught the gamut of fantasy hockey sports online from injuries to news to prospects, and more. He has bet on several sports and written sports betting articles about the NBA, MLB, NCAA football, the NFL, and NHL for USA Today.

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