USC vs Oregon Prediction, Pick, Odds & Trends – Week 13

• Oregon is a 10-point favorite over USC in Saturday afternoon Big Ten action
• The Trojans need to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive
• See below for my USC vs Oregon prediction, odds and betting trends for Week 13

ESPN’s College GameDay heads to Eugene for a massive Big Ten showdown between USC and Oregon on Saturday, with playoff implications on the line in the college football odds.

USC (8-2) must win their final three games to reach the College Football Playoff. Oregon (9-1) controls their own destiny but can’t afford another slip-up after losing to Indiana.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR, with CBS providing the coverage.

USC vs Oregon Prediction

My USC vs Oregon prediction starts with a major issue for the Trojans. QB Jayden Maiava looks like two different players depending on where he’s playing.

Maiava completes 74.5% at home but just 57.4% on the road. He’s thrown 14 TDs against 2 picks at the Coliseum, but 4 TDs and 4 INTs away. Now he travels to Autzen Stadium, one of college football’s toughest venues.

Jayden Maiava Home vs Road Splits

Oregon’s defense has been historic this season. They allow just 13.7 points per game (6th nationally) and 127.3 passing yards per game, best in the country. The Ducks haven’t allowed this few passing yards since 1976.

USC does have weapons with Makai Lemon leading the nation with 1,090 receiving yards. But Oregon is 40-2 at home since 2019. They’ve won 32 straight against teams not ranked in the AP Top 10.

The Trojans’ pass rush grades 83rd nationally since Week 5. They can’t get pressure, which means Dante Moore should have time. Moore just went 27-for-30 (90%) against Minnesota, breaking Marcus Mariota’s single-game school record.

Oregon’s run game gives them another edge. Noah Whittington averages 8.2 yards per carry, while freshmen Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. have combined for over 1,000 yards. USC’s run defense ranks 115th nationally, allowing nearly 180 rush yards per game on the road.

Lincoln Riley is 0-4 against AP Top 10 teams at USC. The Trojans have lost six straight against Top 10 opponents dating back to 2019. That streak should continue Saturday.

For my USC vs Oregon prediction, I’m predicting the Ducks control this game at home. Autzen’s noise should disrupt USC’s passing attack, while Oregon’s balanced offense will wear down the Trojans.

USC vs Oregon Pick

Based on my prediction, I’m taking Oregon to cover the 10 points (+9.5 on FanDuel) on Saturday. This Week 13 Big Ten matchup sets up perfectly for the Ducks to win by double digits.

USC has impressively crushed teams 48-6 in second halves during their three-game win streak. But those games came against Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa. Oregon’s offense operates at a different level.

The line opened at Oregon -14.5 and got bet down to -10 by sharp money on USC. I believe the market has somewhat overreacted, and there will be buy-back on Oregon before kickoff. The Ducks have outscored opponents 326-62 through the first three quarters this season. They dominate early and often at home.

Oregon’s offensive line is the nation’s best pass-blocking unit, according to PFF. USC’s pass rush, meanwhile, ranks 83rd since Week 5. Mix in the Trojans allowing 4.4 yards per carry in the run game, and Oregon should move the ball at will while keeping USC’s offense off the field.

• USC vs Oregon Pick: Oregon -9.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins

Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

BET NOW

USC vs Oregon Odds

The USC vs Oregon odds opened at Oregon -14.5, but sharp money on USC has driven it down to -10. The total has moved from 55.5 to 59.5.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. RG Line: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of November 22nd. Browse our top recommended college football betting apps for Saturday’s Week 13 action.

USC vs Oregon Betting Trends

The USC vs Oregon betting trends show historic patterns that point to either side potentially covering on Saturday. Per the college football public betting trends, 74.21% of the money is on USC +10 despite Oregon’s home dominance.

Key ATS Trends:

• USC: 9-2 ATS in last 11 following an ATS loss
• USC: 1-6 ATS in last 7 games on field turf
• USC: 5-13 ATS in last 18 following a straight-up win
• Oregon: 4-1 ATS in last 5 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards
• Road team is 6-2 ATS in last 8 meetings

Total Trends:

• Over is 22-5 in USC’s last 27 following an ATS loss
• Under is 4-1 in USC’s last 5 vs teams with winning records
• 94.25% of bets and 90.64% of money on the under

The moneyline shows 96.43% of bets on Oregon but just 92.48% of the handle. Sharp money respects USC’s upset potential, but Oregon at home remains my best bet.