Patriots vs Bears Public-Betting Splits & Sharp Money Trends for TNF

• The Bears are 2.5 point favorites over the Patriots on Thursday Night Football
• Both New England and Chicago are 4-2 on the season with young signal callers at the helm
• See the lines and public betting splits for Week 7 NFL TNF action

This week, the New England Patriots travel to Chicago to face the Bears in a non-conference matchup. The Bears are listed as the home favorite, while the Patriots are the road underdog. Check the latest NFL odds for current market prices and line movement.

The game is scheduled for Soldier Field to kick off Week 7 of the NFL season at 8:15 PM ET / 5:15 PM PT and will air nationally on Amazon Prime Video and TSN in Canada. Below is a breakdown of the available betting splits with these percentages describing the reported distribution of tickets and money

Patriots vs Bears Public-Betting Splits and Sharp Action

Patriots vs Bears Spread Splits

Patriots +3 has 72.9% of spread tickets and 76.2% of the reported money; Bears -3 has 27.1% of wagers and 23.8% of the cash. The money share for New England is 3.3 percentage points above its ticket share, a modest ticket-to-handle difference.

The on-field spread data highlights why public and market participants are drawn to New England. Both teams enter Week 7 boasting identical 4-2 against the spread records, but the Patriots have been exceptionally resilient away from Foxborough, posting a 2-1 ATS mark as road underdogs while covering outright in victories over Buffalo (+6.5) and Miami.

Chicago enters 4-2 ATS overall and 2-1 ATS at Soldier Field, but covering as field-goal home favorites has historically tested young offenses. While the Bears comfortably covered in their 31-23 road win over Atlanta in Week 6, their two losses this season – falling 9-3 to Minnesota and getting routed 31-7 at Green Bay – demonstrate that their young offense can experience prolonged scoring lulls when opposing fronts disrupt rhythm. For NFL player props picks, check out our article.

Moneyline Splits for TNF

New England has 42.4% of moneyline bets and 61.7% of the reported moola, compared with Chicago’s 57.6% of tickets and 38.3% of the money. This is the largest ticket-to-money gap among the three markets: the Patriots’ money share is 19.3 percentage points above its ticket share, while Chicago’s is 19.3 points below. That pattern is commonly described as a sharp-money signal because the money is more concentrated on New England than the ticket count is.

From a straight-up perspective, New England represents a dangerous underdog riding a three-game winning streak (4-2 SU overall), scoring 29, 45, and 26 points over that span. Mike Vrabel’s squad has already proved it can win outright in hostile territory, knocking off division frontrunner Buffalo 29-26 as a +230 road dog in Week 4.

Chicago sits at 4-2 SU (2-1 SU at home) with a +31 scoring differential, averaging 25.0 points per game behind Caleb Williams. However, the Bears’ outright win rate as home favorites faces a stiff test against a New England defense surrendering just 18.8 points per contest and generating consistent pressure without blitzing. The lopsided handle share on NE at plus-money (+120) reflects sharp traders betting that the Patriots’ ball-control offense and special teams edge can steal an outright primetime road victory. For a NE vs CHI same-game parlay, click the link.

Patriots vs Bears Game-Total Splits

The Under at 50.5 has 70.5% of bets and 65.8% of the reported money. The Over has 29.6% of tickets and 34.3% of the cake, a 4.7-point increase from ticket share to money share. The reported handle therefore leans more toward the Over than the ticket count does, while the Under leads in both measures.

The overwhelming ticket backing on the Under aligns with both teams’ overarching defensive metrics and Chicago’s heavy trend toward lower-scoring games at Soldier Field. While both teams sit at 3-3 to the over/under on the season, Chicago’s home contests have produced totals of 12, 34, and 35 points, staying comfortably under 50.5 points in two of three home dates. Chicago’s defense allows just 19.8 points per game, while New England surrenders 18.8 points per contest.

Although New England has seen each of its last three games cash the over – averaging 54.0 combined points in that stretch – a short-week Thursday night road trip into Soldier Field’s elements historically depresses red-zone conversion efficiency. A 50.5-point benchmark demands at least seven combined touchdowns or relentless tempo, making the heavy public under activity completely consistent with Chicago’s methodical home game scripts.

For more on how these figures are reported, see NFL public betting trends.