Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks, Prediction & Updated Betting Lines (Week 13)

• Buffalo looks to bounce back after a loss in Houston
• The Steelers can wrestle back control of the AFC North with a win
• Read below for my Bills vs Steelers picks and predictions

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The Buffalo Bills (7-4, 2-3 road) head to Pittsburgh for the first time since 2019 to face the Steelers (6-5, 4-2 home) on Sunday afternoon in Week 13. Acrisure Stadium plays host at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday, Nov. 30. CBS will carry the broadcast.

I have locked in my four favorite Bills vs Steelers picks, below. Continuing reading for my key players to watch, as well as the final Bills/Steelers betting lines for a potential playoff preview.

BUF Bills vs PIT Steelers Picks & Predictions

• BUF vs PIT Pick #1: Under 46.5 (-122 on BetRivers)

The under has been hitting consistently in both Bills and Steelers games. In the last seven Bills games, the under is 5-2. The under has hit in five of the last nine Steelers games, including three of the last four.

The Bills offense has sputtered in two out of three weeks, scoring 13 points in a loss to Miami and 19 points in a loss to the Texans. Granted, these results sandwich a 44-point explosion in a win over the Bucs, but still, the once uber-consistent Buffalo offense has four games with 20 or fewer points in their last seven games. They also have three turnovers in three straight games.

While the Steelers have scored 62 points over the last two weeks, it is worth pointing out that they scored an unsustainable three defensive touchdowns in that span. Against teams currently in the playoffs, the Steelers have averaged 21.3 points per game, a solid drop from their 24.9 figure for all games.

• BUF vs PIT Pick #2: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+125 on FanDuel)

Allen has a whopping 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. The only downside to this bet is that he has only scored in five of 11 games, scoring multiple times four different times. He also has a three-touchdown game. Allen has at least 10 rushing touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.

Allen is adept at scoring both tush push/sneak touchdowns as well as scramble touchdowns. He has seven rushing touchdowns inside the two-yard line this season. Previously against the Steelers, he has a one-yard touchdown run and a 52-yard touchdown run.

"THEY'RE GONNA PUSH HIM IN. PAYDIRT"

Josh Allen accounts for his S I X T H touchdown @BuffaloBills 😤 pic.twitter.com/PoEBO75aEi

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 16, 2025

The Steelers have allowed three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. Back in Week 1, Justin Fields scored twice. In Week 9, Daniel Jones plunged in from one yard out. The Steelers will have their work cut out for them from a mobile quarterback standpoint with Allen this week and Lamar Jackson twice in the last five weeks.

• BUF vs PIT Pick #3: Jaylen Warren Over 1.5 Receptions (-109 at BetRivers)

Last week was the first time Warren did not have two catches in a game this season. He has 25 catches in 10 games played, catching as many as five passes. Warren is averaging 2.8 targets per game on the season. With Aaron Rodgers returning from a broken (left) wrist, I expect Rodgers to be extra conservative and target Warren more often than usual.

Jaylen Warren went crazy on this catch and run 🔥

SEAvsPIT on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/fKSeR78pKg

— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025

The Bills have allowed multiple catches to nine running backs this season. De’Von Achane caught 13 total passes across two games, and the Bills have even allowed multiple backs to catch two passes against the Patriots and Bucs.

• BUF vs PIT Pick #4: James Cook Anytime TD (+105 at Fanatics)

James Cook has scored in seven games this season, tallying nine total touchdowns on the season. He has scored in each of the last two games, surpassing 100 scrimmage yards in four of the last five games. Last season, Cook tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns, and he added two receiving touchdowns.

Given the plus-odds here, this is a must-bet situation on Cook (as it is with Allen). The books (in this case, Fanatics) are pricing Cook with a lower than 50% chance to score a touchdown. In the last two seasons, Cook has scored a touchdown in 19 of 27 games played, much higher than the sub-50% implied odds.

Out of the 28 touchdowns allowed by the Steelers, seven belong to running backs. This includes a bizarre special teams touchdown by Seattle’s George Holani and an Zavier Scott receiving touchdown. Last week, Kyle Monangai scored for the Bears in their win over Pittsburgh.

Bills vs Steelers Betting Lines

The Bills are road favorites with the total set between 45.5 and 46.5 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 45.5 at Caesars for -107 odds. Under bettors can get under 46.5 on BetRivers for -122 odds.

Buffalo bettors can get the Bills on the spread at -3 with -110 odds on bet365, or on the moneyline at -165 on bet365. For Pittsburgh bettors, take the Steelers at +3.5 at Underdog (-127 odds) or +154 odds at FanDuel on the moneyline.

BUF vs PIT: Last Five H2H Matchups

The Steelers hold the lifetime edge over the Bills 17-13 including a split across four playoff games. In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 4-1 against the Steelers, including a playoff win after the 2023 season.

Speaking of, the Bills rolled to a 31-17 win in their last matchup against the Steelers. Josh Allen had four total touchdowns including a 52-yard rushing touchdown. On the Steelers side, Mason Rudolph got the start, throwing two touchdowns and an interception.