Giants vs Patriots Picks & Closing Odds for MNF
By Eric Rosales in NFL News
Published:
- The New England Patriots are 7.5-point favorites over the visiting New York Giants on MNF
- The Patriots are looking for their 10th win in a row
- Keep reading for my Giants vs Patriots picks and predictions, plus closing odds
The New England Patriots (10-2, 7-5-0 ATS) will look to move their win streak into double digits when they host the New York Giants (2-10, 7-5-0 ATS) on Monday Night Football.
But hitting 10 straight will have its challenges, as the Patriots are dealing with significant injuries on its offensive line. Still, it’s not enough to disway the books, who have them as healthy home favorites in the Monday Night Football odds.
Kickoff is set for 8:15pm ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, with ABC and ESPN carrying the broadcast.
Giants vs Patriots Picks & Prediction
- Giants +7.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
How close is it at the top of the conference? Even beating Cincinnati last week to extend to a nine-game winning streak couldn’t keep New England in the top spot in the AFC.
A Broncos’ win on Sunday Night Football gave them their own nine-game win streak, and they hold the tiebreaker of 10-2 teams due to their common opponent: New England lost to Las Vegas in Week 1, a team Denver beat in Week 10.
Which is all to say, the stakes are high for the Patriots, and it’s a dangerous matchup. The team’s offensive line continuity has been a key for them all year.
This game will mark just the second time all year that LT Will Campbell, LG Jared Wilson, center Garrett Bradbury, RG Mike Owenu and RT Morgan Moses won’t be starting along the offensive line.
While the Giants are 30th in points allowed and dead last against the run at 157.2 yards per game, they present a formidable opponent when Drake Maye drops back to pass.
Maye leads a passing attack that ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per game, but he’s been sacked 37 times, third most in the league. New York, while only 18th in sacks, is built to pressure the QB, with Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and Dexter Lawrence all able to wreak havoc in the Patriots’ backfield.
On the other side, New York has the 11th-best rush attack in the league, but will be going up against a Pats’ side that allows just 87.7 yards per game, good for second in the NFL.
It will likely take a combination of puncturing New England defense with some runs and Dart creating some explosive plays to stay competitive.
During their six-game losing streak, New York has stayed within a TD in four of them, while five of New England’s victories in this fun run have been decided by seven points or less, including three of the last four.
I like the Patriots to win, but New York is a little too frisky to be getting 7.5 points.
Giants vs Patriots Closing Lines
Closing in on two hours before kickoff, the Patriots are still hefty -350 moneyline favorites, sitting as a 7-point favorite on the spread at Caesars Sportsbook.
Over at DraftKings, you can grab the underdog Giants and that extra half-point, with +295 odds on the moneyline.
The best total for the Under is currently 46.5 points at bet365. Over bettors will need to do a little shopping to find the 46-point total.
The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.
NY Giants vs NE Patriots Line Movement
This line has stayed in the touchdown range, starting out at most books at 7.5 points, and staying consistently at seven points, but it’s moved as low as 6.5 points, and it’s injury news that’s moving the needle.
For the Patriots, their entire left side of the offensive line is out. Left tackle Will Campbell (knee) and left guard Jared Wilson (ankle) are both sidelined. That, coupled with the return of star rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart (concussion) to the Giants’ huddle, has gotten the line to shift.
That’s also reflected in the moneyline odds. After living in the +320-+325 range all week, you can now find the G-Men regularly in the +280 range. New England, once a short -500 on the moneyline at some books, has settled anywhere from -350 to -380.
The total has remained consistently at 46.5 points, with some books settling right on 46 points.
Looking at the NFL public betting percentages, and no injuries are swaying the public’s pick of New England winning outright, with a monster 92% of the bets and 88% of the money on the home team.
It’s split almost down the middle on the line, with 55% of the bets and 54% of the money on the Patriots to cover seven points, while the Giants are taking 45% of the bets and 46% of the money to stay within 7.5 points.
The public is leaning to the Over, with 58% of bets and 67% of money hoping to cash the Over at 46.5 points.
NYG vs NE Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with losing records.
- The Giants’ Over record is 5-1-0 in its past six vs teams with a winning record.
- New York is 8-15-0 ATS on the road since 2023. This season, they are winless in six road games, but 3-3-0 ATS.
- New England has gone Over the total in four straight home games vs NFC competition.
Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
