Jaguars vs Broncos Expert Picks, Player Props to Bet, Anytime TD Odds & Weather Impact (Dec. 21)

• AFC heavyweights meet in Week 16 as the 12-2 Denver Broncos host the 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars
• The weather forecast at Mile High is nearly ideal on Sunday, Dec. 21
• See my favorite Jaguars vs Broncos picks and predictions, plus TD-scorer odds, and the latest betting lines

Two of the AFC’s top teams meet in Week 16 as the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, 4-2 away, 9-5 ATS, 8-6 O/U) visit the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos (12-2, 7-0 home, 6-7-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U), who also lead the conference as a whole and have the inside track on the AFC’s lone first-round bye in the NFL playoff bracket. This heavyweight tilt kicks off at 2:05 pm MT/4:05 pm ET at Empower Field at Mile High.

Denver’s 11-game win streak is nearly double the next-best team in the NFL (Houston, six) and they remain a perfect 7-0 at Mile High. Bettors are give the Broncos a decent amount of respect at this late stage of the season. Denver opened as a 2.5-point favorite and has been bet up to -3.5 over the course of the week. The NFL public betting splits show a massive 82% of moneyline handle on the Broncos, but there’s been buyback on the Jaguars at the inflated spread, with JAX attracting 65% of ATS money roughly four hours before kickoff.

Below, I have set out my top Jaguars vs Broncos picks and props to bet, the touchdown-scorer odds, and current betting lines.

Jump to: PICKS || TD SCORERS || BETTING LINES || WEATHER

Jaguars vs Broncos Expert Picks & Props to Target

JAX vs DEN ATS Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Jaguars represent the more complete team from a statistical standpoint. Their +8 turnover differential is a game-changing metric that can swing close contests, particularly when combined with an offense that averages nearly a field goal more per game than their opponent.

While Denver’s pass rush ranks among the league’s elite, Jacksonville’s defense counters with a knack for creating interceptions (18 on the season) that can flip field position and momentum.

The Jaguars ATS record also demonstrates their ability to exceed expectations when catching points.

Top Passing Prop to Bet: Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+140) at Sports Interaction

The Jaguars average 26.6 points per game, establishing consistent scoring baseline that supports multi-touchdown production. Big plus-money odds on Lawrence throwing multiple touchdowns represents outstanding value given Jacksonville’s offensive potency and game-script expectations, especially in light of the near-perfect conditions in Denver (a rarity in late December).

Statistical Foundation:

• Game Environment: 47.0-point total projects significant offensive contributions from both teams
• Red-Zone Efficiency: Recent performance demonstrates Lawrence’s ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities
• Defensive Matchup: Denver’s aggressive pass rush (58.0 sacks) may force quicker decisions but won’t prevent red-zone opportunities

At +140 odds, this represents the slate’s premier value play. In projected shootout conditions, betting the more prolific offense’s leader to reach a modest two-touchdown threshold offers exceptional risk-reward dynamics.

Top Receiving Prop to Bet: Sutton Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at DraftKings

Denver’s primary target benefits from Bo Nix’s career-best form and Troy Franklin’s diminishing role. The Broncos’ pass-heavy approach (3,164 passing yards vs 1,673 rushing yards) creates volume-based opportunities for their established veteran receiver.

Jacksonville’s secondary allows explosive plays while hunting interceptions, creating favorable conditions for experienced receivers who can exploit coverage lapses. Sutton’s reliability in Denver’s offensive system positions him perfectly to exceed this line.

Sutton’s receiving yards prop has climbed as high as 61.5 at BetMGM, but remains at 58.5 at DraftKings.

JAX vs DEN Touchdown Props

Travis Etienne Jr leads the touchdown scorer-odds, with his line moving from -115 to -121. Courtland Sutton’s anytime touchdown odds shortened from +170 to +162, aligning with increased yardage expectations.

The pair of mobile quarterbacks present intriguing value, with Trevor Lawrence at +428 and Bo Nix at +367.

JAX Jaguars vs DEN Broncos Closing Odds

Denver’s moneyline strengthened from -155 to -178 or shorter, while the spread moved from -2.5 to -3.5, crossing a key number. Most significantly, the total jumped from 44.5 to 47.5 points, a substantial three-point increase that signals widespread expectation of offensive fireworks.

Denver Weather Forecast: Perfect Conditions for Aerial Attack

Late December conditions at Empower Field at Mile High present no environmental obstacles to offensive production. The forecast removes weather as a variable in this high-powered matchup.

Game Conditions:

• Temperature: 42°F at kickoff
• Wind: Light 5-7 mph
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Visibility: Clear and sunny

These ideal conditions eliminate concerns about ball trajectory, footing, or grip that could impact passing accuracy. Both quarterbacks benefit from optimal conditions, while skill position players maintain full cutting ability on the firm turf surface. The weather forecast reinforces confidence in over props across multiple categories.

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