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Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Player Props & Best Bets for Christmas Day NFL

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in NFL News

Published:


Dak Prescott celebrates a TD with George Pickens.
Dec 21, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates with wide receiver George Pickens (3) following a touchdown pass caught by Pickens during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
  • The Dallas Cowboys visit the Washington Commanders on Christmas Day
  • Washington ranks 32nd in EPA/pass allowed, and 30th in passing touchdowns surrendered
  • Keep reading for my favorite Cowboys vs Commanders player props and best bets on Christmas Day

‘Tis the season of giving, and I’m sharing three plus money picks for the opening game of the NFL Christmas Day Tripleheader between the Commander and Cowboys. Each selection comes from the player props market, where I’m looking to primarily pick on Washington’s horrendous secondary.

The table below lists the main Cowboys vs Commanders player props available in today’s NFL odds, plus my favorite O/U to target.

DAL Cowboys vs WAS Commanders Player Props

PasserCompletionsPassing YardsPassing TDs
Dak Prescott (DAL)23.5 (O -128 | U -104)270.5 (O -114 | U -114)1.5 (O -235 | U +172)
Josh Johnson (WAS)16.5 (O -114 | U -114)176.5 (O -114 | U -114)1.5 (O +162 | U -220)
RusherRushing AttemptsRushing YardsLongest Rush
Javonte Williams (DAL)15.5 (O -128 | U -10474.5 (O -114 | U -114)14.5 (O -114 | U -114)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS)12.5 (O -114 | U -114)52.5 (O -114 | U -114)OFF
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)OFF28.5 (O -114 | U -114)OFF
Josh Johnson (WAS)OFF17.5 (O -114 | U -114)OFF
ReceiverReceptionsReceiving YardsLongest Reception
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)5.5 (O -130 | U -102)79.5 (O -114 | U -114)26.5 (O -118 | U -112)
George Pickens (DAL)5.5 (O -125 | U -106)78.5 (O -114 | U -114)26.5 (O -112 | U -118)
Jake Ferguson (DAL)4.5 (O -108 | U -122)36.5 (O -114 | U -114)15.5 (O -106 | U -125)
Terry McLaurin (WAS)3.5 (O -178 | U +132)50.5 (O -114 | U -114)21.5 (O -112 | U -118)
Deebo Samuel (WAS)4.5 (O +106 | U -125)43.5 (O -114 | U -114)18.5 (O -106 | U -125)

My Cowboys vs Commanders player props card starts with 3+ passing TD for Dak Prescott. He’s accomplished the feat five times already this season, including in his only matchup with Washington a couple months ago.

I’m also betting on a big day for CeeDee Lamb, wagering on him to eclipse the 100 yard receiving mark yet again. I’m rounding out my best bets with a fade of Terry McLaurin, whose ceiling craters with Josh Johnson under center.

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Cowboys vs Commanders Player Prop Bet #1: Dak Prescott TD Passes

  • Dak Prescott 3+ TD Passes (+168) at FanDuel

Let’s start with Prescott, who draws a dream matchup with the dreadful Washington secondary. The Commanders defense ranks bottom-six in EPA/pass, passing yards and pass TD, and has surrendered the third most overall production to enemy QBs.

Commanders Defensive Stats

StatRank
EPA / Pass32nd
Pass Yards27th
Pass TD30th

That’s great news for Prescott and the Cowboys, who love playing the role of school yard bully. Dallas routinely beats up on the bad teams, but struggles to compete versus the good ones. Prescott’s two biggest games this season were against bottom feeders (Raiders and Jets), while 17 of his 28 TD passes (61%) have come versus teams no longer in playoff contention.

Cowboys vs Commanders Player Prop Bet #2: CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards

  • CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards (+182) at FanDuel

There are plenty of reasons why Dallas isn’t a Super Bowl odds contender, but the play of their receivers is not one of them. Lamb and George Pickens make up one of the most dangerous wideout duo’s in football, with Lamb being the Cowboys best zone beater.

That’s important for this matchup, since the Commanders have moved to a zone heavy scheme since Dan Quinn took over defensive play calling duties. Lamb owns a 68% catch rate versus zone defenses, averaging 0.24 targets and 2.31 yards per route run.

His average depth of target versus zone (12.4 yards) is nearly a yard and a half higher than versus man, and he went off for 110 receiving yards in his first meeting with Washington.

Lamb already has 15 catches of 20+ yards this season, and over 300 yards after contact. He’s cleared 110 receiving yards in three of his past four outings, and I love targeting him at +182 odds to clear the century mark again.

Cowboys vs Commanders Player Prop Bet #3: Terry McLaurin Receptions

  • Terry McLaurin Under 3.5 Receptions (+132 at FanDuel)

As for McLaurin, you simply can’t trust him with Johnson under center. The 18-year-vet targeted McLaurin only once on 9 attempts in relief last week, electing for safer passes to running backs and tight ends.

The Dallas pass defense may be horrific, but their outside corners aren’t the problem, and those are the defenders McLaurin will see the most of.

Let’s not forget Johnson is a career journeyman, who hasn’t seen significant snaps in over four years. Betting on any of his receivers would be a mistake, as Washington will do everything they can to limit his pass attempts.

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Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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