Iowa vs Vanderbilt Spread, Prediction & Prop Picks for ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31)

• The 14th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores are 5.5-point favorites vs the 23rd-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes in Wednesday’s ReliaQuest Bowl
• This will be the first time these schools have ever played each other
• See below for Iowa vs Vanderbilt spread, prediction and prop picks for the ReliaQuest Bowl

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It’s the last chance for the brash Diego Pavia to show out to the college football world, as the Heisman runner-up leads his 14th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2) against the 23rd-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

The books have Pavia’s Commodores as the betting favorites in the CFB odds.

Kickoff is set for New Year’s Eve at 12 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, home to the NFL’s Buccaneers. ESPN will provide the coverage.

Read below for the Iowa vs Vanderbilt spread, my ReliaQuest prediction and prop picks.

Iowa vs Vanderbilt Spread

The Iowa vs Vanderbilt spread has the Commodores as 5.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. Vanderbilt is a -200 favorite on the moneyline, courtesy of BetMGM, and DraftKings has them at a 4.5-point spread, whereas most books are starting a point higher.

The Hawkeyes are 5.5-point spread underdogs in the college football odds at your standard -110 juice and check in at +180 to win outright, both odds courtesy of bet365.

Total bettors: there’s very little fluctuation on this one, as both FanDuel and bet365 have the line at 46.5 points.

Odds as of Dec. 31 from consensus college football betting apps.

Iowa vs Vanderbilt Prediction

My Iowa vs Vanderbilt prediction backs the Hawkeyes to cover the point spread in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

This matchup pits one of the best offenses in the nation against one of the best defenses.

Behind Pavia, Vanderbilt was a juggernaut, averaging 39.4 points per game, which was a Top-10 mark in college football. They finished their year crushing 19th-ranked Tennessee 45-24.

The Commodores rattled defenses from every angle: they ranked Top 40 in rushing at 185.9 yards per game, with a healthy 5.8 yards per tote, good for fourth-best in the nation.

Their passing game was even more potent, racking up 282.6 yards per game (13th), while Pavia completed a blistering 70.2% of his passes, which helped Vandy rank first in college football in yards per play at 7.5.

The Hawkeyes present among the best defenses Vanderbilt has played this year, a defense that ranked seventh in total yards allowed (270.6), eighth in points allowed (15.2) and eighth in pass defense at 158.2 yards per game.

But they’ll also be shorthanded, as All-American and Mackey Award-winning tight end Eli Stowers has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Stowers has led the Commodores in receiving yards in each of the last two seasons.

There are no current opt outs for the Hawkeyes, who bring a far less heralded team to Tampa, but still dangerous. They’re led by dual-threat pivot Mark Gronowski, who threw for only eight touchdowns but led Iowa with 15 rushing scores on a crisp 4.1 yard-per-carry average.

As a team, Iowa’s best weapon is its run game, which ranks Top 50 in college football, piling up 177.8 yards per contest. They’re supported by an offensive line that took home the Joe Moore Award recognizing the best OL in college football.

That will be contested in Tampa, as Vanderbilt ranked 16th in the nation allowing just 103.2 rush yards per game.

The Hawkeyes were 0-4 in games against ranked teams this year, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t give them hell. They held CFP top seed Indiana to 20 points in a 5-point win, slugged it out with Oregon (another CFP team) in an 18-16 loss, and the margin of defeat in each game was five points or less.

Vanderbilt will have last played a game on Nov. 29, so the offense might take a little time to find its footing, but Iowa’s defense won’t be helpful in that endeavor.

In the Commodores’ two lowest-scoring outputs of the year, the common denominator was a strong defense: Alabama beat Vandy 30-14, while Missouri hung in there in a 17-10 loss. Both those schools were Top 4 in scoring defense in the SEC and ranked 1-2 against the pass.

I think Iowa has the ability to replicate that blueprint and will play another ranked team tough to close out the year.

ReliaQuest Bowl Pick: Iowa +5.5

Iowa vs Vanderbilt Prop Picks for ReliaQuest Bowl

Odds as of Dec. 30. New customers can claim the bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on CFB props.

Prop Pick #1: Diego Pavia Under 229.5 Passing Yards

Pavia finished the year cruising over this total in four straight games. But the senior pivot was just average when facing ranked teams. He topped that mark against both Texas and Tennessee, teams that ranked Bottom-5 in the SEC in passing yards allowed per game.

Diego Pavia has accounted for 36 touchdowns this season.

Iowa Quarterbacks have thrown for 36 touchdowns over the last 4 seasons COMBINED.

pic.twitter.com/WugI9EDoyr

— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) December 30, 2025

South Carolina was a Top 8 pass defense in the SEC, and Pavia threw for 177 yards. He threw for 198 against Alabama’s top-ranked passing defense, 160 yards against LSU (6th) and 129 against Mizzou (2nd).

There’s a pattern here, and Iowa’s pass D, ranked eighth nationally, should keep this trend going.

Prop Pick #2: Mark Gronowski Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown

I don’t usually bet interceptions, but the key to getting Gronowski and that offense uncomfortable is to stuff their potent run game and force Iowa into passing situations.

That has to be the Commodores’ game plan on defense, trying to make Gronowski one-dimensional in the weaker of his quarterbacking skills.

Mark Gronowski adds to the @HawkeyeFootball tally with the TD!! 😎 pic.twitter.com/14GMfBvzKo

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 31, 2025

Gronowski struggled throwing the ball against ranked opponents on the year, throwing for less than 145 yards in all four games and throwing an interception in three of those games.

Prop Pick #3: Tre Richardson Over 68.5 Receiving Yards

With Stowers gone, someone is going to have to take those targets and passes otherwise intended for the Commodores’ star tight end.

Tre Richardson can certainly grab his share of targets, as he topped his 68.5 receiving line set for New Year’s Eve in each of his last three games, including catching six balls in each of his last two games, tying a season-high he set in Week 4 against Utah State.

The junior wideout hasn’t been much of a factor in games against ranked teams this season, with just one game with at least 70 yards receiving. But circumstances change, and Richardson could be in line for another big day.