NFL Wild Card Player Prop Analysis: Deep Dive into Key Stats & Player O/Us for Every Playoff Matchup

The NFL playoffs have arrived, bringing heightened stakes and a fresh landscape of betting opportunities across the Wild Card round. With a full regular season of statistics for each team, we possess a comprehensive data foundation to evaluate player prop markets with precision, and I want to share all that data with you!

This Wild Card slate includes some of the league’s best offensive players, including Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Puka Nacua, and Nico Collins, among others. But before you just blindly start betting their overs, it’s important to know the caliber of defense they’re playing, some of their recent trends, and to assess their over/unders properly.

The purpose of this article is not for me to give you my favorite NFL player props for the weekend. Instead, I am going to give you all the data needed to help make your own decisions. This is a comprehensive NFL Wild Card player prop guide!

NFL Wild Card Passing Props & Playoff Matchup Analysis

Let’s start this section by highlighting the passing yard props for each quarterback:

NFL Passing Props for Wild Card Weekend

Matthew Stafford enters the Wild Card round with the most optimistic over/under, carrying a passing yard line of 263.5 yards against the Carolina Panthers. On the other end of the spectrum is Bryce Young, whose over/under for passing yards is just 193.5.

Some of these lines could see significant movement with some uncertain expectations on what weather will be like in a couple games – namely the Rams vs Panthers matchup. Be sure to check our NFL passing yards props tool for all the current lines available – it will also do the line shopping for you!

Now let’s jump into what these QBs typically average.

QB Passing Yard Averages

Stafford led the NFL in passing yards this season, averaging 276.9 yards through the air per game. Among the QBs playing this weekend, Bryce Young averaged the fewest passing yards per game this season with just 188.2 per game. This lines up with the passing yard over/unders from above.

The player with the biggest difference between their season average and their prop line for Wild Card Weekend is Caleb Williams, whose over/under is set 24.4 yards lower than his season average.

Josh Allen’s over/under is set 14.7 yards higher than his season average, which is the biggest difference among players whose prop is higher than their average.

Passing Prop Player Trends

• Josh Allen has exceeded 230.5 passing yards in 3 straight games against Jacksonville, averaging 295.3 yards in those matchups
• Trevor Lawrence has exceeded 236.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games at EverBank Stadium, averaging 256.0 yards at home
• Aaron Rodgers has exceeded 202.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 247.2 yards over that span
• Justin Herbert has exceeded 221.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 9 road games, averaging 241.9 yards away from home
• C.J. Stroud has exceeded 228.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 road contests, averaging 239.2 yards on the road
• Bryce Young has failed to exceed 192.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging just 168.5 yards

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Pass Defense Rankings for 2025 Playoff Teams

The Bills finished the NFL season allowing the fewest gross passing yards per game at just 170.2 per game. However, it should be noted this is aided by the fact that the Bills faced the second-fewest pass attempts this season, thanks to their run defense being awful – they allowed the third-most yards per rushing attempt.

This is likely why we see Trevor Lawrence’s passing over/under basically equal to his season average.

The Steelers are the worst pass defense playing in Wild Card Weekend, as they allowed the third-most passing yards per game in the league this season. This is why we’re seeing Stroud’s passing prop line about 13.3 yards higher than his season average.

Rushing Prop Analysis for NFL Wild Card Weekend

As we did above, let’s start with the over/unders for rushing yards for all notable running backs in Wild Card Weekend:

NFL Rushing Props for Wild Card Round

The running back with the highest over/under for rushing yards in Wild Card Weekend is Saquon Barkley at 81.5. James Cook comes in as a close second with a line of 79.5. The lead back with the lowest over/under is Omarion Hampton, whose line is just 45.5. Rico Dowdle’s over/under is just one yard higher.

These lines were accurate as of Friday night, though. But you can get all the current lines on our NFL rushing yards props page, where you can also compare the over/unders and odds across multiple sportsbooks.

RB Rushing Yard Averages This Season

James Cook led the NFL in rushing yards this season, and averaged 95.4 yards on the ground per game. He has the highest per-game average among starting RBs in the playoffs. The starting RB playing this weekend with the lowest rushing yards per game is Woody Marks at just 43.9. Though, this is a little deceiving, as Marks was a backup to start the season.

Rico Dowdle’s rushing yards over/under is 16.8 yards lower than his season average, which is the biggest difference among lead backs this weekend. James Cook is a close second at 15.9 yards lower than his season average. Josh Jacobs’ line is also notable for being 13.6 yards above his season average, the biggest discrepancy in that direction.

Notable Rushing Prop Player Trends

The most intriguing values often emerge in secondary rushing props or with mobile quarterbacks whose lines may not fully reflect their scrambling potential in playoff pressure situations. Here are some quick-hitting trends to know!

• Chuba Hubbard has exceeded 25.5 rushing yards in 11 of his last 12 home games as an underdog, averaging 77.0 yards per game
  • Should be noted that Hubbard played most of these games as Carolina’s lead back, which he is not right now.
• Nick Chubb has exceeded 13.5 rushing yards in 10 straight games and in 8 consecutive matchups against Pittsburgh, averaging 69.5 yards per game
  • Should be noted that he’s in a much different role now than he was when playing the Steelers as a Brown.
• Saquon Barkley has failed to exceed 79.5 rushing yards in 10 of his last 14 games, averaging 70.9 yards per game
• Josh Jacobs has failed to exceed 74.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 7 games as a favorite, averaging 46.9 yards
• Travis Etienne Jr. has failed to exceed 64.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 8 home games, averaging 48.4 yards
• Caleb Williams has exceeded 21.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog, averaging 24.5 yards
• Bryce Young has exceeded 18.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 23.6 yards
• C.J. Stroud has exceeded 11.5 rushing yards in 4 straight games when favored by fewer than 7 points, averaging 24.8 yards

You can tail any of these rushing props at bet365 after signing up with our great welcome bonus.

Run Defense Rankings for 2025 Playoff Teams

No team allowed fewer rushing yards this season than the Jacksonville Jaguars this season at just 85.6 per game. They also allow the fewest yards per rushing attempt among teams playing in the Wild Card Round, and ranked fifth in the NFL at just 3.94. This explains why James Cook’s line is so much lower than his season average.

The worst run defense in the playoffs is the Bills. Buffalo allowed 136.2 rushing yards per game and a horrific 5.14 yards per carry. This makes it a little odd to see Travis Etienne’s rushing over/under a little bit lower than his season average.

The Bears aren’t much better than the Bills, as they only allowed 1.7 fewer rushing yards per game and 0.14 fewer yards per carry. This is why Josh Jacobs’ line is inflated from his season average.

Analyzing NFL Wild Card Receiving Props: Identifying Prime Matchups

Here are the receiving yard props for the top receivers playing in Wild Card Weekend:

NFL Receiving Props for Wild Card Weekend

Puka Nacua commands (by far) the highest receiving prop at 90.5 yards against Carolina. His over/under is 23 yards higher than any other receiver playing this weekend. It’s worth noting no Chargers receiver has a line higher than 41.5, which is Ladd McConkey’s over/under.

Some of these lines may be stale by the time you read this, though, and I have only included some of the receivers playing this weekend. Get all the current lines on our NFL receiving yards props page, where you can view all the lines in descending order, filter by matchup, and search for any player.

WR/TE Receiving Yards Averages This Season

Puka Nacua finished second in the NFL in receiving yards this season, and averages more receiving yards per game than any other player participating in Wild Card Weekend – JSN is on bye. However, his receiving yards prop is 15.7 yards lower than his season average.

Notable Receiving Prop Trends

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has exceeded 12.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games as an underdog by fewer than 7 points, averaging 63.0 yards
• Quentin Johnston has exceeded 35.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog, averaging 59.8 yards
• DJ Moore has exceeded 25.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 home games, averaging 60.2 yards
• Jauan Jennings has exceeded 44.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games as an underdog, averaging 49.9 yards
• Hunter Henry has exceeded 44.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 home games, averaging 48.6 yards
• Dalton Schultz has exceeded 41.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games when favored by fewer than 7 points, averaging 53.0 yards
• Kenneth Gainwell has exceeded 32.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 50.0 yards
• Will Dissly has exceeded 6.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 9 games as an underdog, averaging 19.3 yards
• DeVonta Smith has failed to exceed 54.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games as a favorite, averaging 44.0 yards
• DK Metcalf has failed to exceed 55.5 receiving yards in 7 straight primetime games, averaging 44.7 yards
• Puka Nacua has failed to exceed 91.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 road games as a favorite, averaging 78.2 yards

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If you want to see how each defense fares against the pass, scroll back up to the passing section of the article.