Analyzing NFL Anytime TD Prop Data for Wild Card Weekend: Consistent Scorers, TD Streaks & More

There is no prop more popular than NFL touchdowns. But sportsbooks often pray on the unprepared, as most don’t offer both possible outcomes (yes/no or over/under) and get away with limiting the value on many players as a result. Many bettors also go into betting touchdowns with just gut feels or only one piece of data to support their pick.

Not this Wild Card Weekend, though! I have rounded up all the necessary data needed for betting NFL anytime touchdowns, including the most probable players, touchdown leaders, most consistent touchdown scorers, active touchdown streaks, and a number of defensive stats that correlate to allowing TDs.

You can find all the TD data broken down into its respective sections below. Happy TD betting, all!

NFL Anytime TD Prop Analysis for Wild Card Weekend

We’re going to cover the most likely players to score a touchdown this weekend, the players who scored the most touchdowns this season, players who are riding TD streaks, and the defenses who allow plenty/few TDs.

Here’s a look at the anytime touchdown odds for some of the league’s premier scoring threats in their Wild Card matchups:

Most Probable TD Scorers in Wild Card Round

The player most likely to score a touchdown in Wild Card Weekend is James Cook, according to the betting odds. Cook is given a 60% chance of finding the endzone based off his -150 odds at DraftKings.

You’ll likely notice there are some teams without representation in the table. I only included players who had around a 50% or greater probability of scoring a TD. But the Bear most likely to score a touchdown is D’Andre Swift (+160), the Panther is Rico Dowdle (+160), Charger is Omarion Hampton (+160), and Steeler is Kenneth Gainwell (+210).

Check out the best lines for all players on our NFL anytime TD odds page.

NFL Touchdown Leaders Among Playoff Teams

I have only included players who are participating in the NFL Playoffs in the table above. Christian McCaffrey leads all players who have a game this weekend with 17 total touchdowns this season. It’s worth noting the Rams have two of the top five players in Davante Adams and Kyren Williams.

While total touchdowns are nice to look at, I also always be sure to check for consistency and look at the players who have scored a TD in the most games. Here’s that list:

1. Christian McCaffrey – 12 games with TD (70.6% of games played)
2. Josh Jacobs – 10 games with TD (66.7%)
3. Kyren Williams – 10 games with TD (58.8%)
4. Davante Adams – 9 games with TD (64.3%)
5. Puka Nacua – 9 games with TD (56.3%)
6. James Cook – 9 games with TD (52.9%)
7. Travis Etienne Jr – 9 games with TD (52.9%)
8. Dallas Goedert – 8 games with TD (53.5%)
9. Jauan Jennings – 8 games with TD (53.3%)
10. D’Andre Swift – 8 games with TD (50%)
11. Saquon Barkley – 8 games with TD (50%)
12. Josh Allen – 8 games with TD (47.1%)
13. Quentin Johnston – 7 games with TD (50%)

The most reliable TD scorer this season has been Christian McCaffrey, who has at least one touchdown in 12 of 17 games.

The next highest percentage belongs to Josh Jacobs, who scored a TD in 10 of 15 games in the regular season. It’s also worth noting that while Davante Adams scored a TD in 9 games, he only played in 14, giving him a TD in 64.3% of his games, the best among receivers playing this weekend.

Players to Score a TD Against Their Wild Card Opponent This Season

There are only two games in NFL Wild Card Weekend that are rematches of regular season games: Rams vs Panthers and Packers vs Bears (happened twice). Here are the players who scored TDs in the regular season games:

Rams vs Panthers Week 13 TD Scorers:

• Davante Adams (Rams) x2
• Blake Corum (Rams)
• Kyren Williams (Rams)
• Chuba Hubbard (Panthers)
• Mike Jackson (Panthers – defensive TD)
• Jalen Coker (Panthers)
• Tet McMillan (Panthers)

Packers vs Bears Week 14 TD Scorers:

• Christian Watson (Packers) x2
• Bo Melton (Packers)
• Josh Jacobs (Packers)
• Olamide Zaccheaus (Bears)
• Colston Loveland (Bears)

Bears vs Packers Week 16 TD Scorers:

• Romeo Doubs (Packers)
• Jahdae Walker (Bears)
• DJ Moore (Bears)

It’s worth noting that no player scored a TD in both of the games between the Packers and Bears this season.

Notable Active Touchdown Streaks

These are all the players currently riding a touchdown streak of at least three games heading into Wild Card Weekend:

• Puka Nacua: has a touchdown in each of his last 3 games
• Dallas Goedert: has a touchdown in each of his last 3 games
• Rhamondre Stevenson: has a touchdown in each of his last 3 games

Christian McCaffrey was riding a six-game TD streak heading into Week 18, but he saw that snapped as the 49ers failed to find the endzone at all against the Seahawks to close the regular season. Jauan Jennings was also notably riding a five-game TD streak, but also saw his snapped in Week 18.

Points Against Rankings for NFL Playoff Defenses

Among teams playing in the Wild Card Round, the Texans have allowed the fewest points at just 17.4 per game. This was second-best in the NFL this season. However, it is the Chargers who have allowed the fewest touchdowns, only surrendering 1.88 TDs per game – teams kicked a fair number of field goals against them. This is why we see Steelers (vs Texans) and Patriots (vs Chargers) players getting longer odds to score a TD this weekend than what we have come to expect most weeks.

The Bears have allowed the most points among Wild Card teams, giving up 24.4 points per game this season. They have also allowed the most touchdowns with 2.76 per game. This makes Josh Jacobs‘ -135 odds to score a touchdown seem a little long.

The Eagles finished the regular season allowing the fewest passing touchdowns with only 14 TDs scored against them through the air – take note when considering betting George Kittle and/or Jauan Jennings to score a TD. Once again, the Bears allowed the most passing touchdowns with 32. So, Christian Watson is also worth a look for Green Bay.

Very few teams found the endzone on the ground against the Rams, as they allowed just eight rushing touchdowns this season, the fewest in the NFL. This is good to know for anyone who was looking at Rico Dowdle or Chuba Hubbard anytime TD odds. The Bills allowed the most rushing touchdowns among playoff teams, giving up 24 TDs on the ground. Travis Etienne Jr‘s -140 odds seem a little long after reading that.

Red Zone Defense Stats

Here are how the teams playing this weekend rank when it comes to red zone touchdown percentage allowed (#1 being the best and #12 the worst):

1. LA Rams: 46.2%
2. LA Chargers: 46.9%
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 50.9%
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 53.1%
5. San Francisco 49ers: 53.8%
6. Carolina Panthers: 55.2%
7. Chicago Bears: 56.1%
8. Houston Texans: 56.8%
9. Buffalo Bills: 59.6%
10. Jacksonville Jaguars: 59.6%
11. Green Bay Packers: 59.6%
12. New England Patriots: 67.5%

The Rams really tighten up when their back is against the wall, as they only allow a touchdown on 46.2% of their opponents’ red zone drives. This is the third-best in the NFL, and best among teams playing in the Wild Card Round.

It’s notable that the Texans, who allow the fewest points among teams playing in the Wild Card Round, surrender a touchdown on 56.8% of their opponents’ red zone drives. This ranked 16th in the NFL. So, teams obviously aren’t getting down to the red zone often against them, but when they do, they find the endzone more often than not.

The Patriots are in the same boat, as they allow the second-fewest points among teams playing this weekend. However, teams score a TD on 67.5% of their red zone drives against New England. This was the third-worst rate in the league this season.

Players Approaching Touchdown Franchise Milestones

If you want to bet based on stories/narratives (I do not, to be clear), here are a handful of players approaching franchise milestones:

• Christian McCaffrey (SF): The 49ers’ dynamic running back is just two rushing touchdowns away from tying Steve Young for the most in franchise playoff history (8).
• Jalen Hurts (PHI): A true dual-threat, Hurts needs just one rushing touchdown to tie NFL legends Marcus Allen and LeGarrette Blount for 7th on the all-time playoff list. He is also one passing touchdown shy of tying Nick Foles for second in Eagles playoff history.
• Josh Allen (BUF): Allen is a touchdown machine. He is one rushing touchdown away from taking sole possession of 2nd place on the Bills’ all-time playoff list.
• Keenan Allen (LAC): The veteran receiver can make history for the Chargers, needing only one receiving touchdown to tie Charlie Joiner and Kellen Winslow for the most in the franchise’s playoff history (4).
• Dalton Schultz (HOU): In Houston, Schultz is just one receiving touchdown away from tying Nico Collins for the top spot on the Texans’ all-time playoff receiving touchdowns list.