NFL Divisional Round Anytime Touchdown Scorer Analysis: TD Leaders, Trends & Defensive Matchups

We all love betting touchdowns. Anytime touchdowns, first touchdown scorers, each team’s respective first TD scorer, or even live next touchdown scorers. They’re fun and often come with plus-odds for a nice return. However, as we head into the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, it should be noted that each of the top four defenses in points allowed per game are playing this weekend – two of them in the same game as well.

In fact, there is only one team playing who finished outside of the top 12 in points allowed. So, with what may be a lower-scoring weekend of football, it’s going to be more important than ever to dive into the data to find where the best value is when it comes to betting touchdowns in the NFL Divisional Round. I break down all the pertinent player stats for scoring touchdowns, including TD leaders and most consistent TD scorers, as well as defensive stats for allowing points/touchdowns.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Stats & Odds for Divisional Round

The table above is sorted by total touchdowns scored in descending order, in an attempt to give you a look at the best touchdown scorers and to see which players are getting shorter/longer odds than their own scoring stats would suggest. The data includes the 2025 regular season as well as Wild Card Weekend.

Not only has Christian McCaffrey scored the most touchdowns (19) among players participating in the NFL Divisional Round, but he also has scored a touchdown in the highest percentage of games (72.2%).

There are a couple of players who stand out from this list that deserve some more context. The first one is Woody Marks, who is given short +165 odds to score a TD against the Patriots in spite of only scoring six total touchdowns this season. The context we need to consider here is that he has scored in two of his last five games, and Nico Collins, their main red-zone threat, is expected to be out.

Next up is Jake Tonges, who has only scored five touchdowns in the 18 games he has played. However, four of those touchdowns have come with George Kittle out of the game, which includes him leaving Week 1 early. So, if you only look at those Kittle-less games, Tonges has scored four TDs in seven games, which makes his +300 odds look much more enticing.

Notable Active TD Streaks:

The following players are enjoying active touchdown streaks of at least three games – sort of a who’s hot list:

• Puka Nacua – has a TD in each of his last 4 games
• Zach Charbonnet – has a TD in each of his last 3 games
• Colby Parkinson – has a TD in each of his last 2 games

Anytime TD Defensive Stats & Analysis

The data in the table above includes both the 2025 regular season and 2026 Wild Card Weekend. It is sorted by points allowed per game in ascending order.

The Texans allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season, only surrendering 16.7 per game. But we also see the second, third, and fourth-ranked teams in points allowed per game suiting up this weekend. Even the Rams, Bills, and 49ers all rank in the top 12. The Bears are the only team outside of the top 12, as they allow 24.6 points per game, good for 23rd.

The Broncos allow the fewest touchdowns per game at just 1.71, whereas the Texans allow 1.94. The Bears are giving up 2.94 touchdowns per game, giving us all good reason to take a look at Rams TD scorers – though, we need to factor in the forecasted cold weather.

Seattle gives up the fewest rushing touchdowns at just 0.53 per game, giving Christian McCaffrey anytime TD bettors something to think about (especially after he failed to score a TD against them in Week 18), while the Bills give up the most among the remaining teams with 1.33 per game – hello, RJ Harvey!

When it comes to passing touchdowns, the Broncos only allow 1.06 touchdowns through the air per game, the fewest among the remaining teams, while the Bears give up 2.0 per game, the most.

Denver also finished the season with the best red zone TD% allowed, as they only gave up a TD to their opponents on 42.6% of their red zone drives. The Patriots, surprisingly, are the worst among remaining teams in this category, as they allowed a TD on 64.3% of their opponents’ red zone drives. New England just doesn’t allow their opponent to enter the red zone very often.

NFL Divisional Round TD Betting Strategy

Based off all of the data above, both player stats, defensive stats, and the odds, I am walking away with the following strategy for betting touchdowns this weekend:

• I’m targeting Rams pass-catchers to score a TD in spite of the cold weather forecasted. Stafford threw for 291 yards against a far better Eagles defense in the playoffs last season when the temperature was 34 degrees. Getting Puka Nacua at -110 at theScore Bet is a great price, in my opinion.
• The Bills defense is so bad against the run that I cannot look away from RJ Harvey, despite the Broncos offensive inconsistencies and Harvey’s short odds. The best price at the moment is -125 at theScore Bet.
• I don’t think I’ll bet any players from the Patriots vs Texans game. Not only are both defenses very good, but neither offense strikes much confidence in me after seeing them against inferior defenses last week.
• While the Broncos defense is very good against the pass, their weakness comes when a QB is able to evade the pressure and extend plays. Though he’s pretty banged up, I still believe Josh Allen will be able to do this, and think Dalton Kincaid at +300 (also at theScore Bet) odds is a good bet.
• The combo of George Kittle, an excellent run-blocking tight end, being out and facing a very stingy Seahawks run defense has me down on CMC finding the endzone. I think the best value play in this game is Jake Tonges at +320 odds on FanDuel, who I believe is being overlooked.