3 Reasons Arch Manning Will Not Win the 2026 Heisman Trophy

• Texas QB Arch Manning opens as the 2026 Heisman favorite at +750 odds
• He would be the first preseason pick to hoist the Heisman since Marcus Mariota in 2014
• Read below for reasons to not wager on Arch, and some bets worth considering instead

---

Is this the modern-day version of the Madden curse?

On Thursday, sportsbooks have released the preseason favorites in the 2026 Heisman odds, and it points to Arch Manning of the Texas Longhorns at +750.

Pivots are the popular pick, as nine of the first 10 candidates are QBs, with only Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith cracking the list, in at no. 3 with +1100 odds.

But the person tabbed with this preseason accolade hardly ever takes home the hardware. We’re going to tell you why Manning will follow in this trend, and what better value ticket you might consider laying your money on.

Opening 2026 Heisman Odds

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook on Jan. 15, 2026. Check out where to bet legally in the US on the Heisman.

Reason 1: Preseason Heisman Favorites Almost Never Win

Arch is as good a pick as there is, there’s no argument there. He’s heading into his second season as a starter, and he started looking really comfortable down the stretch, leading the Longhorns to wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

But there’s very few preseason favorites that have realized the dream months later. Manning should know: he was the preseason favorite this season, and needed a telescope to see the finalists from where he was sitting from when the dust settled.

Arch Manning will have THE BEST receiving corps in the country next year.

NO ONE was better over the last 6 games of the season than Arch.

Could he break Joe Burrows passing and touchdown records next year?

pic.twitter.com/peXxtt29SE

— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) January 13, 2026

According to ESPN research, only one person has turned the trick in the last 16 years, that being Marcus Mariota of the Oregon Ducks in 2014.

As sports gambling wasn’t exactly front and center until recently (mostly living in the dark recesses of shady buildings and bars), it’s hard to actually track this. Some Reddit threads have Nebraska’s Eric Crouch pulling the preseason-end season double in 2001, and USC’s Matt Leinart turning the trick in 2004.

Even the books tried to do things a little differently this time: the preseason favorite is usually released the same night. right after the Heisman Trophy presentation. This year? We’re just one game left in the college football season, perhaps to get a better gauge of who to target.

Reason 2: There’s So Much Other Talent – Even on the Same Team

Current Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza wasn’t even listed in any sportsbooks’ Top 20 bets for the award.

The Cal transfer was one of two pivots that landed at Indiana, and his buzz didn’t really ramp up until Indiana looked like it was a legit challenger in the Big Ten, let alone for the national title.

Last Five Preseason Favorites and Actual Heisman Winners

Owing to that, it’s no surprise the books have Indiana’s next transfer QB inside the Top 5, with Josh Hoover (formerly of TCU) checking in at +1100 odds.

However, Mendoza’s younger brother Alberto, was no. 2 on the depth chart last season, and it seems like he could get a chance to compete for the starting job.

Indiana has their new QB1 for this fall in Josh Hoover.

7,421 passing yards & 56TDs the past two seasons at TCU. Obviously one of the top QBs in the portal.

Can air it out downfield with the best of them. With Marsh, Becker, etc. it’ll be fun.
pic.twitter.com/ebNE3rst8t

— Garrett Armbrust (@4thandsaturday) January 4, 2026

In 2024, another Texas QB, Quinn Ewers was the preseason favorite and again, an off-the-board candidate in Travis Hunter and his dual-threat ability took the trophy.

After winning the award in 2022 as a Top 3 preseason selection, Caleb Williams couldn’t complete the back-to-back Heisman double, with Jayden Daniels, lurking just inside the Top 10 taking it all.

Reason 3: Consider the Others with Better Value

Of the Top 10, there’s one name that stands out, only because his talent was likely going to have him battle with Mendoza for the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

After a rough outing in a loss to Indiana in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff, Dante Moore announced he was going to stay for one more year. Perhaps it was because his draft stock could have only dipped after that 56-22 shredding.

Moore could not keep pace with the Hoosiers’ offensive onslaught, with Oregon down 35-7 at half and the game essentially over. Moore did throw for 285 yards and two TD’s but much of that came in extended garbage time. He also fumbled twice, losing both, while also throwing an interception.

I don’t think Dante Moore is going back to school to avoid the Jets. But if he is, he’s in for a rude surprise when he sees who’s picking top 3 again next year!

— JR (@JRNYSports) January 14, 2026

This is a guy that threw for 3,500 yards and 30 TD’s, but that extra chip on his shoulder might lift him above the field.

The Lane Kiffin spotlight shines bright, so of course transfer Sam Leavitt is nestled in among the top, but it’s another SEC school that took to the transfer portal that might be worth considering down the board.

South Florida pivot Byrum Brown is coming off a big season for the Bulls, ranking inside the nation’s Top 30 in passing yards and Top 15 in TD passes with 28.

He arrives at Auburn following his USF head coach Alex Golesh. Another big season will hit harder in one of college football’s elite conferences, and that could make him the fourth straight portal-to-Heisman winner in a row.