Texans vs Patriots Closing Odds, Line Movement & Final Picks

• The Texans/Patriots odds have moved towards the home team
• The game total has dropped a full point since opening
• See the Texans vs Patriots closing odds, line movement, and final picks for Jan. 18

The Houston Texans and New England Patriots meet on Sunday with a berth in the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos on the line. After Denver QB Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury at the tail-end of his team’s OT win over Buffalo yesterday, the winner of the Texans/Patriots matchup will be tantalizingly close to a Super Bowl appearance. (The latest Super Bowl odds list New England at +450 and Houston at +700, both well ahead of the Broncos at +1000.)

The Texans are dealing with their own significant injury, specifically WR1 Nico Collins (concussion), who has been ruled out of Sunday’s Divisional Round game against New England. As such, the Texans/Patriots odds have moved towards the home team and the under.

Texans vs Patriots Closing Odds

Just two hours from kickoff, the Patriots are -168 or shorter (best price at FanDuel) and at least -3.0 (-110) against the spread (best odds at BetMGM).

The Texans come back as +150 underdogs (best odds at bet365) and are as long as +3.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook.

The total ranges from 40.5 to 41.5 with FanDuel currently offering the best over option (over 40.5 at -114) and bet365 offering the best under option (under 41.0 at -110).

Odds as of 1:27 pm ET. The lines in the interactive table, above, will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the NFL odds move again before kickoff.

HOU vs NE Line Movement

The Patriots opened as 2.5-point ATS favorites and -144 ML chalk, with Houston at +122, despite their league-best ten-game win streak heading into the Divisional Round. After news dropped that Nico Collins would miss Sunday’s tilt, the line moved significantly towards the Pats, with all books increasing the spread by at least half a point and moving the New England moneyline to -168 or shorter.

The game total also dropped after Collins was ruled out, with most sportsbooks moving it down a full point from the opening O/U of 41.5.

Final Texans vs Patriots Picks

HOU vs NE Pick #1: First Half Under 17.5 Points (+136 at FanDuel)

I already discussed why I like the full-game under on a total of 40.5 in my Texans/Patriots predictions. My penultimate pick for Houston/New England is going to be a big swing on the first half under the alternate total of 17.5, which carries a market-best price of +136 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Houston defense is as good as it gets in the NFL this season. They were neck-and-neck with the Seahawks for best scoring defense in the league (291 points against vs 295 points against) and rated slightly better than Seattle in terms of defensive EPA per play. The Texans rated second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA and third at PFF.

With Collins out, the Texans will become more reliant on the ground game and short, quick passes. Their drives will churn more clock. Head coach DeMeco Ryans/offensive coordinator Nick Caley are likely to craft a conservative game plan, hoping to let their defense do the dirty work just as it did against Pittsburgh last week, when the teams combined for just 13 first-half points.

New England’s offense didn’t exactly blow the doors off against the Chargers last week, scoring just one TD (in the fourth quarter) and playing a scoreless first quarter. Chargers/Patriots witnessed just nine first half points, exclusively from field goals.

HOU vs NE Pick #2: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

My final Texans/Patriots pick is New England RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson to hit at least 20 receiving yards. The Pats bell-cow has exceeded his number in six straight games, including a 75-yard performance against a good Charger defense last time out. That six-game streak roughly coincides with Stevenson distancing TreVeyon Henderson in the Pats’ depth chart, and it’s likely to continue today against a Houston defense that gives QBs very little time to think.

Stevenson will be one of Drake Maye’s safety valves as Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter converge on him from either edge.

Looking for more Texans/Patriots picks to tail? Check out:

• Sascha Paruk’s +1000 Texans vs Patriots same-game parlay
• Eric Rosales’ top Texans vs Patriots TD-scorer picks

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