CFP Championship Score Prediction – A.I. Picks for Indiana vs Miami on Monday Night

• Our A.I. model has generated a score prediction for Monday’s CFP National Championship
• The prediction suggests a closer game than the 7.5-point spread indicates
• See the complete score prediction and analysis for Indiana vs Miami

The College Football Playoff National Championship kicks off Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium. Indiana enters as a 7.5-point favorite over Miami, but our A.I. model predicts a closer game than the spread suggests.

Sharp money has backed Miami’s moneyline with 42.54% of total handle despite just 21.42% of tickets. Professional bettors see value in the Hurricanes as home underdogs, and the A.I. agrees with that contrarian view.

Here is the CFP National Championship score prediction from SportRadar’s advanced A.I model, along with data-driven analysis.

CFP National Championship Score Prediction

Indiana 27, Miami 20

Miami +7.5 ✓ | Under 47.5 ✓

A.I. prediction generated Jan. 19. New customers can check out the best college football betting apps and claim bonuses to bet on the national championship.

Why A.I. Predicts Miami Covers Spread

Miami’s pass rush drives the A.I.’s national title prediction. The Hurricanes have recorded 47 sacks this season, the type of defensive pressure that forces quarterbacks into rushed throws. Indiana’s Fernado Mendoza faces the most hostile environment of his career with Miami fans desperate for their first title since 2001.

The Hurricanes have covered in every playoff game this postseason, going 3-0 ATS with wins over Ole Miss, Ohio State, and Texas A&M. They beat Ohio State outright as 7.5-point underdogs in the semifinal, the exact same spread they’re getting Monday night.

Indiana averages 42.6 points per game with a +21 turnover differential, second-best nationally. But the A.I. expects championship pressure and Miami’s home crowd to narrow that gap. The 27-20 prediction keeps Miami within the number while still giving Indiana the title.

Under Fits Championship Game Script

The 47-point projection is based on tighter play-calling on the sport’s biggest stage. Championship games produce more conservative decisions, with coaches prioritizing ball security over explosive plays. Longer drives consume clock and reduce total possessions.

Indiana converts 58.2% on third down, fourth-best nationally, which means sustained drives. But Miami’s pass rush should force more check-downs instead of vertical shots. The A.I. sees Indiana scoring in the mid-20s, well below their 42.6 average but enough to win.

Miami allows 22.4 points per game, ranking 31st nationally. The numbers aren’t elite, but the Hurricanes create negative plays with their pressure. Both offenses should lean on shorter passes and the ground game rather than taking risky deep shots.

Sharp Money Backs the Hurricanes

Public betting has created massive imbalance. An overwhelming 67.6% back Indiana against the spread while 80.96% take the over. But professional money tells a different story, with 42.54% of moneyline handle on Miami despite just 21.42% of tickets.

When nearly half the money backs a team getting less than a quarter of the tickets, that’s sophisticated money seeing value. Those larger wagers come from bettors who believe Miami keeps this game within one score, and the A.I.’s 27-20 prediction aligns with that read.

Miami +7.5 offers value with Hard Rock Stadium providing a genuine home-field advantage. The under 47.5 fits the model’s expectation of conservative play-calling. Mendoza’s passing yardage under 242.5 also looks solid given Miami’s 47 sacks and the likelihood he’ll check down more often.

Monday’s national championship kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Weather looks ideal with mid-60s temperatures and sunshine. The A.I. sees Indiana hoisting the trophy, but Miami keeping it close enough to reward bettors willing to fade the public.