Swiatek vs Rybakina Expert Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• World No. 2 Iga Swiatek is on a path to complete the career Grand Slam
• Elena Rybakina looks to make her second Aussie semifinal
• Read below for my Swiatek vs Rybakina picks and predictions

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No. 2 Iga Świątek and No. 5 Elena Rybakina battle for the third semifinal spot at the 2026 Australian Open. The winner advances to face the winner of Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova. Swiatek is one of the current generation’s top performers with six career Grand Slams, but she has yet to win the Australian.

Świątek vs Rybakina is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday night (11:30 am local time, Wednesday morning) in Rod Laver Arena.

Rybakina is a narrow favorite, but the women are first and second in the Australian Open title odds.

Swiatek vs Rybakina Expert Picks

• Iga Świątek Moneyline +106 (FanDuel)
• Over 2.5 Sets (+135, Caesars)

Swiatek vs Rybakina Predictions

While the metrics (and Elo rating) prefer Rybakina, I am backing Swiatek to continue her quest for her seventh Grand Slam. Just three wins away from a career Grand Slam, I anticipate Swiatek showing the heart of a champion and delivering a three-set victory.

While the metrics are on Rybakina’s side right now, 2026 is just 27 days old, and there is plenty of time for Swiatek to normalize her performance across the board.

In terms of match duration, I like the value on three sets at +135. These players are as close as they come, and they would have been worthy competitors in later rounds of the tournament.

Swiatek vs Rybakina Odds: Best Lines

For Iga Świątek bettors, takę +106 on the moneyline at FanDuel or +1.5 games, also at FanDuel (-120 odds). For Elena Rybakina bettors, take her moneyline at BetMGM (-125 odds) or -1.5 games at FanDuel (-110 odds).

For this best-of-three match, over 2.5 sets is priced at +135 on Caesars. Under 2.5 sets is -150 on DraftKings.

The game total is set at 22.5. Over bettors should take over 22.5 at Caesars for -115 odds. Under bettors should take under 22.5 from FanDuel (-108 odds).

Swiatek vs Rybakina Stats

Styles make fights, and this matchup is a contrast of styles – at least so far in 2026. Rybakina boasts one of the most dynamic serves on tour this year, winning over 81% of her service games. She has a 74.5% first serve won percentage, and she leads the WTA with 28 aces in 2026. She has saved nearly three-quarters of break points.

Swiatek is more average with her service this year. She has a lower-than-average first-serve won rate but a higher-than-average second-serve won rate. She has saved a perfectly average 50% of break points.

Swiatek’s return game has saved the day, though. She ranks above average in return points won, first return points won, second return points won, break points converted, and return games won. Out of those five metrics, Rybakina only has the advantage in converting break points. Rybakina’s return game is slightly above average across the board, even if it sits comfortably behind Swiatek’s.

Elo ratings are sourced from Tennis Abstract.

Swiatek’s Path to the Quarterfinals

Swiatek has gotten stronger as the tournament has progressed. She fended off a tough unranked Yuan Yue from a first-set tiebreaker then cruised through the second set and second match. Anna Kalinskaya took a set off Swiatek in the Round of 32, but Swiatek answered with a 6-1 demolition in the final set.

Rybakina’s Path to the Quarterfinals

Rybakina has yet to lose a set in Melbourne, and only one opponent managed to win five games in a set. For the most part, Rybakina has demolished her opponents, taking no more than 20 games to win any individual match.

Previous Australianan Open Performances

A six-time Grand Slam champion, Swiatek has never won the Australian. She has previously made the semifinals twice, but she has yet to break through to even make the final. Heading into 2026, she had a 76% win rate in Melbourne – elite, but the worst of her Grand Slams. If Swiatek wins this tournament, she would complete the career Grand Slam.

Rybakina has had an uneven performance at the Australian Open. By winning percentage (70%), it is her second-worst Grand Slam, but her performance is buoyed by a run to the final in 2023. Otherwise, this is her only other appearance to the quarterfinals. She has made two other career Grand Slam semifinals, winning Wimbledon in 2022 and losing in the semifinals in 2024 Wimbledon.

Swiatek vs Rybakina H2H: Last Five Matches

In 11 lifetime matches, Swiatek holds a 6-5 edge. The pair previous played in the 2023 Australian Open when Rybakia upset then-No.1 Swiatek in straight sets. Swiatek has won four of the last five matchups, but Rybakina struck back with a three-set win the last time they faced.