Benfica vs Real Madrid Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Injury News

• Is Benfica a good value bet as sizable home underdogs in a must-win game?
• Real Madrid faces significant defensive challenges with Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy, and Militao all missing
• Check out my top Benfica vs Real Madrid picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and injury news

The UEFA Champions League clash between SL Benfica (2-0-5, 6 pts, -4 GD) and road favorite Real Madrid (5-0-2, 15 pts, +11 GD) kicks off at 3:00 pm ET from the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisbon on Wednesday, the same start time as all 18 Matchday 8 games in the UCL. Watch all UEFA Champions League matches on Fubo TV.

Benfica’s only hope of progressing to the knockout stage is to pick up the full three points, while Madrid is already assured of progressing and will head straight to the round-of-16 if they pick up a single point.

This preview will delve into whether Madrid’s formidable attack, spearheaded by elite talents like Kylian Mbappe, can overcome the notable absences of key defensive players such as Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy, and Eder Militao. I’ll explore if underdog Benfica, playing at home with a fully fit squad, can leverage manager Jose Mourinho’s tactical prowess to get the points needed to keep their UCL hopes alive.

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || INJURIES || H2H STATS

Real Madrid vs SL Benfica Odds

The betting markets list Madrid as the clear favorites; their longest three-way moneyline price is -135 at FanDuel (57.45% implied win probability). The longest odds on a Benfica win are +340 at Caesars, while DraftKings has the best price on a full-time draw (+330).

The total-goals line is at a relatively high 3.5 with the under favored at -159 (best odds at theScore) and the over priced at a market-best +125 (at BetMGM).

To account for the bookmakers’ margin (vig), the normalized probabilities for each outcome are calculated as:

• Real Madrid Win: 55.5%
• SL Benfica Win: 22.0%
• Draw: 22.5%

A $10 wager on Madrid at their best moneyline odds of -135 would yield a profit of $7.41, resulting in a total payout of $17.41 if they win. Meanwhile, a $10 bet on Benfica at +340 would bring a substantial profit of $34.00, for a total payout of $44.00 if the underdogs pull off an upset.

Analyzing the opening odds reveals some notable shifts. Madrid’s moneyline opened as low as -200 with some bookmakers. Conversely, Benfica’s odds opened as high as +600 and have generally shortened.

Odds in table as of 9:58 am ET, Jan 28. Lock in the BetMGM promo code to get a bonus for today’s UCL games.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Expert Predictions & Picks

Handicap/Spread Pick: Benfica +110 at theScore Bet

While Madrid enter the fixture as clear favorites, a closer look at the handicap market reveals a compelling narrative suggesting Benfica could prove resilient. My pick is SL Benfica to cover the +1 goal handicap at +110. This means if Benfica wins or draws, the wager would cash. Because this is a three-way handicap, any Real Madrid victory would result in a loss.

Benfica, managed by the experienced Jose Mourinho, often sets up defensively astute teams that are difficult to break down.

Total-Goals Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+163

The Over/Under market for 2.5 goals has also seen movement, albeit a more subtle one, which could guide my prediction.

Key Observations from Odds Movement:

• Over 2.5 Goals: Opened at -225 and has slightly moved to -200.
• Under 2.5 Goals: Opened at +175 and has shortened to +163.

Justification for Under 2.5 Goals:

Although the “Over 2.5 goals” remains the favored outcome at -200 (implying a 66.7% probability), the market’s minor adjustment points towards a slight cooling off of high-scoring expectations. The odds for “Under 2.5 goals” have shortened from +175 to +163, indicating a marginally increased probability of a lower-scoring affair than initially projected.

Considering Jose Mourinho’s history of creating well-organized, compact teams, it’s plausible that Benfica could make it difficult for Madrid to run rampant, leading to fewer goals. Therefore, despite the “Over” being the initial favorite, the subtle market movement towards the “Under” combined with the potential for a tightly contested match based on the handicap shifts, leads me to predict a more cautious game. My pick for total goals is Under 2.5 at +163.

Player-Prop Pick: Pavlidis Anytime Goalscorer (+150 at BetMGM)

Below is a snapshot of the anytime-goalscorer odds from various bookmakers, highlighting players with significant market backing:

My top player-prop pick is Vangelis Pavlidis at +150, which imply a 40% probability of him finding the back of the net. As the focal point of the Benfica attack, Pavlidis is the most-likely candidate to test a Madrid defense missing several key starters. Given Benfica’s strong home scoring average of 2.22 goals per game, Pavlidis represents excellent value at this price.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Injury Report

As the highly anticipated clash approaches, team news regarding player availability is crucial. While Benfica appears to have a fully fit squad according to the latest reports, Madrid is contending with several notable absences that could influence the match’s dynamics.

Real Madrid’s Injury Concerns:

Madrid will be without a few key defensive figures, potentially impacting their backline stability and tactical flexibility:

• Antonio Rudiger: The formidable central defender has been out since January 17, 2026, due to injury and remains out for this fixture. His absence removes a dominant aerial presence and a crucial component of Madrid’s defensive organization.
• Ferland Mendy: Another important full-back, Mendy has been sidelined since January 17, 2026, and is listed as out due to injury. His defensive solidity and ability to support attacks on the left flank will be missed.
• Eder Militao: The Brazilian center-back has been a long-term absentee, out since December 11, 2025, and is out with an injury. His continued absence further depletes Madrid’s central defensive options.

The collective absence of Rudiger, Mendy, and Militao, along with the doubtful status of Alexander-Arnold, presents a significant challenge for Madrid’s defense. These are all established players who contribute significantly to their team’s defensive solidity and build-up play. Álvaro Arbeloa will need to rely on his squad depth, potentially deploying less experienced players or adjusting formations to compensate. This could lead to a less cohesive backline, offering Benfica opportunities they might not otherwise have. While Madrid’s overall strength is high, the defensive injuries could make them more vulnerable than usual, aligning with our earlier prediction for a tighter contest where Benfica could cover the +1 goal handicap.

SL Benfica’s Clean Bill of Health:

According to the latest available data, Benfica currently has no reported missing or doubtful players due to injury. This clean bill of health is a considerable advantage for Jose Mourinho’s side, allowing him to field his strongest possible XI and execute his tactical game plan without unforeseen personnel limitations. A full-strength Benfica, particularly in a high-stakes European encounter, will be better positioned to challenge Madrid, especially given the Spanish giants’ defensive woes.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Statistical Comparison

Madrid enters this match in significantly stronger form, boasting a 3-match winning streak and demonstrating superior performance in the UEFA Champions League over Benfica. Their attacking prowess is undeniable, with Kylian Mbappe leading their scoring with an impressive 11 goals, strongly reinforcing my player prop pick for him to score anytime. Despite Madrid’s formidable record, Benfica showcases some statistics that suggest they could make this a competitive affair, aligning with my pick for Benfica to cover the +1 goal handicap. Benfica scores a respectable 2.22 goals per game when playing at home on average, indicating their offensive capability in front of their fans. They also have a stronger record in winning the first half, doing so in 55% of their matches compared to Madrid’s 47%.

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