Best College Basketball A.I. Picks Today (Feb 12)

• Charleston defends TD Arena against Hofstra in a pivotal clash for CAA tournament seeding
• Wright State aims to solidify its Horizon League lead as double-digit home favorites against Detroit Mercy
• High-tempo offenses and defensive lapses suggest betting value on the Over across tonight’s slate

Thursday night belongs to the mid-majors.

Several mid-major conference leaders are in action tonight as the power conference teams gear up for weekend showdowns.

Highlighting tonight’s slate: The Charleston Cougars host the Hofstra Pride in a clash between the second and third-ranked teams in the CAA. While Charleston looks to solidify its standing, Hofstra arrives riding a three-game winning streak, presenting a tricky test for the home side. Elsewhere in the CAA, the conference-leading UNC Wilmington Seahawks aim to improve on their impressive 20-4 record as they welcome the Elon Phoenix. In the Horizon League, the first-place Wright State Raiders host Detroit Mercy as strong favorites, looking to maintain their hold on the top seed. With home favorites dominating the board, bettors will be watching closely to see if any road underdogs can disrupt the hierarchy.

The table below sets out my NCAAM picks (ATS and O/U0 for five key mid-major game on today’s schedule.

College Basketball Odds for Tonight’s Slate

Odds listed above reflect consensus lines from major sportsbooks at the time of publication.

Significant liability is shaping the market tonight, particularly regarding JMU. Early action has heavily favored JMU against Georgia State, with the Dukes commanding nearly 98% of the ticket count. This one-sided volume suggests the market views the line as short given the mismatch at the Atlantic Union Bank Center.

Similarly, the total in the Wright State vs. Detroit Mercy contest has drawn attention. despite opening at a lofty 154.5, the Over is attracting over 73% of wagers. The betting public is banking on Wright State’s transition offense to dictate a pace that Detroit simply cannot slow down. Meanwhile, in the CAA, sharp money appears to be backing Charleston. Despite a tight -1.5 spread, the handle percentage heavily outweighs the ticket count, indicating larger, more sophisticated wagers are anticipating a bounce-back performance from the Cougars at home.

Hofstra vs Charleston Picks & Predictions

Picks: Charleston +1.5 (-124 at FanDuel) | Over 147.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Shop around because some books have Charleston -1.5. In the evening’s marquee CAA clash, Charleston looks to defend TD Arena against a high-powered Hofstra squad. While the Pride enters on a three-game winning streak, Charleston presents a distinct matchup advantage in the paint. Chol Machot has been a formidable rim protector, averaging 2.56 blocks per game. His ability to alter shots at the rim should allow Charleston’s perimeter defenders to press out on shooters without fear of getting beaten backdoor, stifling Hofstra’s flow.

Offensively, the Cougars are led by Jlynn Counter (16.8 points and 5.3 assists). Counter’s distribution is key against a Hofstra defense that can be prone to lapses in rotation. On the other side, Hofstra’s Cruz Davis is scoring a conference-leading 21.0 points per game. The clash between Davis’ scoring prowess and Charleston’s up-tempo transition game creates a scenario ripe for points. With both teams possessing elite scorers and the pace expected to be frantic, backing Charleston to cover the short number in a high-scoring affair is the play.

Detroit Mercy vs Wright State Picks & Predictions

Picks: Wright St -10.5 (-110 at FanDuel) | Over 154.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Wright State is the team to beat in the Horizon League, largely due to an offense that thrives on chaos and transition buckets. TJ Burch leads the charge defensively with a league-best 2.83 steals per game. Detroit is 5-8 straight-up on the road, often unraveling when opposing teams push the tempo.

While Detroit guard Orlando Lovejoy (13.5 ppg) offers some resistance, the Titans lack the interior presence to handle Wright State’s Michael Imariagbe. Wright State’s ability to generate second-chance points and convert defense into offense should allow them to stretch the lead comfortably in the second half. The Raiders’ high-octane style correlates strongly with the Over, making the favorites and the high total a solid paired investment.

Georgia State vs JMU Picks & Predictions

Picks: JMU -5.5 (-110 at Bet365) | Over 145.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

James Madison enters this contest with significant market backing, and the on-court metrics support the heavy handle. The Dukes have a clear advantage in the frontcourt with Justin McBride (16.3 points and 5.57 rebounds). Georgia State (9-16 overall), has struggled mightily to defend the interior, particularly on the road where their defensive efficiency drops significantly.

The Panthers have a threat in Jelani Hamilton (18.0 ppg) who can keep the scoreboard moving, which aids the Over prediction. However, Georgia State’s inability to string together stops against disciplined offenses has been their undoing during their current slide. Expect James Madison to exploit the paint early, forcing GSU to collapse and opening up perimeter looks. The Dukes should cover this manageable number while pushing the total over 145.5.

Elon vs UNCW Picks & Predictions

Picks: UNCW -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM) | Over 150.5 (-110 at Bet365)

UNCW (20-4) has established itself as the clear frontrunner in the CAA, coming off a dominant 76-64 road victory over Charleston. The Seahawks’ success is built on a balanced attack and the interior dominance of Patrick Wessler, who averages nearly a double-double with 13.5 points and 9.21 rebounds. Wessler’s efficiency (61% FG) and rim protection make him a nightmare for mid-major frontcourts. Elon relies heavily on Chandler Cuthrell (20.9 ppg), but the Phoenix have struggled to find consistency on the road. With UNCW’s Greedy Williams (4.2 apg) expertly navigating the offense, expect the Seahawks to control the tempo and pull away late. The high-scoring nature of both teams, combined with Elon’s defensive vulnerabilities, makes the Over a strong secondary play.

Youngstown State vs Oakland Picks & Predictions

Picks: Oakland -4.5 (-115 at DraftKings) | Over 155.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Oakland enters this Horizon League clash as a strong home favorite, sitting in second place and looking to keep pressure on Wright State. The Golden Grizzlies are powered by Brody Robinson, one of the nation’s premier facilitators, averaging 16.9 points and 6.4 assists. Robinson’s ability to find Isaac Garrett (14.7 ppg) and Tuburu Naivalurua (14.0 ppg) in high-percentage spots makes Oakland’s offense incredibly efficient. Youngstown State counters with Cris Carroll (17.4 ppg), but the Penguins have struggled to string together wins in conference play (5-9). While Imanuel Zorgvol (2.04 bpg) provides a defensive anchor for YSU, Oakland’s perimeter shooting and home-court advantage at the O’rena should be the deciding factors. Expect a fast-paced game that comfortably clears the 155.5 total.