Early UFC 326 Predictions, Picks & Odds for Holloway vs Oliveira 2

• UFC 326 takes place Saturday, March 7th from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
• Max Holloway defends the BMF title against Charles Oliveira in a rematch from 2015
• Check out my early UFC 326 predictions, odds and best value picks below

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The BMF belt started as a gimmick in 2019 because the UFC needed something to headline Madison Square Garden. Seven years later, it’s become one of the most fun titles in the sport. And the matchup we’re getting at UFC 326 might be the best BMF fight yet.

Max Holloway puts his BMF title on the line against Charles Oliveira in the main event this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena. It’s technically a rematch, though the 2015 fight barely counts after Oliveira suffered a neck injury 99 seconds in. A lot has changed for both guys since then.

The main card kicks off at 6:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with prelims starting at 2 pm ET. Here are the early UFC 326 odds and my predictions for the card.

Early UFC 326 Odds

Holloway is a -230 favorite to defend the BMF belt, giving him roughly a 69.7% implied probability. The biggest favorite on the card is Donte Johnson at -600 over Cody Brundage, while the closest fight on the board is Dober vs Johnson at -122/+102. The co-main between Borralho and de Ridder sits at -290/+235, which feels wide given both guys are coming off losses.

Odds as of March 4th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for UFC 326 or browse UFC betting apps.

Early Holloway vs Oliveira Prediction

These two are the all-time kings of their respective crafts. Holloway holds the UFC record for significant strikes landed. Oliveira holds the record for submission wins and total finishes. Both former champions, both fan favorites, and both still dangerous enough to end a fight at any moment.

The 2015 fight tells us nothing. Oliveira hurt his neck about 90 seconds in, and that was it. He was a completely different fighter back then, still figuring things out at featherweight. Since that loss, Oliveira has gone 17-6 with wins over Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler and Mateusz Gamrot. He’s grown into a true lightweight, and his striking has improved dramatically.

Tale of the Tape

Oliveira actually has a five-inch reach advantage, which is interesting because most people think of Holloway as the longer fighter. But reach only matters if you can use it, and Oliveira tends to close distance quickly rather than fight from the outside. He wants to get into the pocket, land heavy, and look for the clinch or the takedown.

The issue for Oliveira is that prolonged exchanges with Holloway rarely end well for anyone. Holloway’s volume, footwork and pace are still elite at 34. He’s only been knocked out once in his entire career, his gas tank is bottomless, and he gets better as fights go on. Oliveira has been wobbled and dropped in several of his recent bouts. Nine of his 11 losses have come by finish.

Alexander Volkanovski, who knows Holloway better than almost anyone, said he expects Blessed to wear down Oliveira and potentially get a late finish in the third or fourth round. I think that’s the most likely outcome. Oliveira will be dangerous early, especially if he can drag this to the mat. But if Holloway survives the first couple rounds, the pace and volume should take over. Oliveira has shown he can fade in championship rounds, and Holloway is the worst guy in the sport to fade against.

I think Holloway wins this, but -230 is a steep price for a five-round fight against a guy with Oliveira’s finishing ability. The better value is targeting Holloway by KO/TKO. If Volkanovski is right about a late finish, and I think he is, then you’re getting paid much better than laying -230 on the moneyline. Oliveira has been finished in nine of his 11 losses. The pattern is there.

• Holloway vs Oliveira Early Pick: Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ (+175 at DraftKings)

Early Borralho vs de Ridder Prediction

Both of these guys were in title shot conversations heading into their last fights. Both got humbled. Now one of them is basically out of that conversation for good after Saturday.

Borralho went 0-for-5 on takedowns against Nassourdine Imavov and lost a lopsided decision in Paris. De Ridder quit on the stool against Brendan Allen after getting ground down for four rounds. And it wasn’t the first time he’s done it, either. He also quit in ONE Championship years ago.

On paper, these two are similar. Both are BJJ black belts, both southpaws, both can grapple at a high level. The difference is that Borralho can actually strike. He’s got speed, power, and cleaner technique on the feet. De Ridder is 6’4″ and uses his size well, but his striking is pedestrian. He’s a one-trick pony who needs to clinch and grapple to win.

This is only three rounds, which helps de Ridder avoid the cardio issues that cost him against Allen. His size will be a factor, and if he can get top position, his grappling is absolutely good enough to finish Borralho. But I keep going back to the quit. Borralho has better cardio, a higher fight IQ, and won’t stop pressing. If this goes into the third round, I think Borralho’s pace breaks de Ridder down.

• Borralho vs de Ridder Early Pick: Caio Borralho by Decision (+110 at DraftKings)

Early Rodrigues vs Ferreira Prediction

This is the rematch that actually makes sense on this card. Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first round back in January 2023 in his UFC debut. On short notice, no less. Since then, Rodrigues has gone 5-1 with wins over Roman Kopylov and Jack Hermansson. Ferreira is 5-2 and coming off a decision win over Marvin Vettori.

In the first fight, Rodrigues made a bad decision. He tried to stand and trade with a compact, explosive puncher. “The Hulk” is only 5’10” but he hits like a truck and has zero fear. Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with solid wrestling, and he decided to brawl instead. It cost him.

I’m expecting a different approach this time. Rodrigues has a five-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach edge. He doesn’t need to walk into Ferreira’s range. If he works the jab, uses his length, and mixes in takedowns, the skill gap should show. Ferreira fades worse than Rodrigues in the later rounds, and his takedown defense has been exploited before.

That said, Ferreira already proved he can put Rodrigues away. Four of Rodrigues’ six career losses have come by knockout. If Robocop gets lazy and camps out in the pocket, we could see a repeat. I’m going with Rodrigues, but Ferreira at +164 is live if you think the first fight wasn’t a fluke.

• Rodrigues vs Ferreira Early Pick: Gregory Rodrigues (-198 at DraftKings)

Other UFC 326 Predictions

Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr.:

This is a pretty straightforward breakdown. Font is a clean, high-volume striker who lands almost six significant strikes per minute. The problem is he’s never been able to defend takedowns, and that weakness only gets worse with age. Rosas Jr. is a nonstop wrestler with 15 takedowns in six UFC fights and over 31 minutes of control time. Font defends takedowns at a 43% clip. At 21 years old, Rosas should be able to smother him and grind out a decision.

• Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. by Decision (+110 at DraftKings)

Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson:

Two vets getting a nice spot on a numbered event main card. Neither fight means anything for the rankings, but it should be a fun one. Both guys are aggressive strikers who push the pace. Neither offers much grappling. It’s basically a coin flip at -122/+102, and that’s exactly how the oddsmakers see it. Johnson is the smarter, more mobile fighter. Dober is the more explosive one who’s willing to eat shots to land his own. I’ll lean Johnson because he’s got the footwork to stay out of trouble and pot shot his way to a decision.

• Pick: Michael Johnson (-122 at DraftKings)

Cody Garbrandt vs Long Xiao:

Garbrandt as a prelim underdog in 2026 is a tough sight for a former champion. He’s still got glimpses of the guy who knocked out Dominick Cruz, but those moments are getting rarer. Long Xiao is a grappler with durability and 37 fights of experience, but he benefited from some favorable scorecards in the Road to UFC tournament. Garbrandt is the better striker with better footwork. At +124, I think there’s some value on No Love if he shows up focused.

• Pick: Cody Garbrandt (+124 at DraftKings)

Alberto Montes vs Ricky Turcios:

Turcios is 2-3 in the UFC, and both of his wins came by split decision. Montes is a nasty grappler who specializes in chokes, particularly the anaconda and the Darce. He’s finished seven of his 10 professional wins. Turcios brings volume and pace but his takedown defense sits at just 40%. Montes should be able to get this to the mat and hunt for a submission.

• Pick: Alberto Montes by Submission

Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay:

Tobias is a strong, athletic grappler with good wrestling and finishing ability on the ground. His striking is stiff, but he doesn’t need it to win. Nurgozhay came into the UFC with hype out of Kazakhstan but he’s 0-2 in the promotion and has looked overmatched. His takedown defense has been a major issue. Tobias at -205 feels like one of the more reliable plays on the card.

• Pick: Rafael Tobias (-205 at DraftKings)

Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage:

Johnson is 7-0 with solid striking and improving all-around skills. Brundage is stepping in on short notice after losing his last fight just a couple weeks ago. Brundage has the wrestling credentials, but he fades badly and tends to be inconsistent. At -600, there’s no betting value on Johnson, but he should win this comfortably.

• Pick: Donte Johnson by TKO

UFC 326 Early Value

Holloway by KO/TKO is my favorite play on the card. He wins most versions of this fight, and instead of laying -230 on the moneyline, you’re getting plus money on a guy whose opponent has been finished in nine of 11 losses. Oliveira is dangerous early, but if Holloway weathers that storm, the finish should come.

Garbrandt at +124 is the best underdog value on the board. His technical striking is still a notch above Long Xiao, and the public hasn’t caught on yet. If the line moves toward a pick ’em, get on it now. Montes by submission is another spot where the method of victory prop pays better than a straight moneyline against a guy with 40% takedown defense.