USA vs Canada Picks, Odds & How to Watch WBC Quarterfinal

• USA is a -667 moneyline favorite over Canada in quarterfinal action at the World Baseball Classic
• The Canadians are one of the tournaments biggest surprises after winning Pool A
• See my USA vs Canada picks, plus the odds and how to watch the WBC Quarterfinal

The quarterfinal round at the World Baseball Classic begins tonight, with a pair of games. The second matchup will pit USA vs Canada, after the Americans had to sweat out a Mexico win over Italy just to reach this stage.

Despite the anxious few hours, online sportsbooks believe USA is still the far superior team. They’ve pegged the Americans as heavy favorites, in a game with a 9.5 total. The ladder market is the one I’ll be betting in my USA vs Canada picks, as the Americans could easily cross the plate double digit times on their own.

Keep reading for my USA vs Canada picks, plus the latest odds and how to watch this WBC game.

How to Watch USA vs Canada at WBC Tonight

First pitch for this border showdown is set for 8pm ET, 5pm PT, from Daikin Park, in Houston, Texas. Fox and its streaming platform will provide coverage across the US, while Sportsnet will handle Canadian broadcast duties.

USA vs Canada WBC Odds

As of Friday morning, there is a big difference in the moneyline market depending on where you bet. Traditional sportsbooks have the Americans priced as short as -900 on the moneyline, but you can get the equivalent of -667 odds if you wager at Kalshi.

Kalshi also has much a better price on Canada to pull off the upset than most sportsbooks, offering them at the equivalent of +614, compare to +550 elsewhere in the industry.

Total-wise, the juice is shaded slightly to over 9.5 runs, but that won’t stop me from making that my wager.

Odds as of March 13 at Kalshi and DraftKings. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code to bet on the World Baseball Classic.

USA vs Canada Picks

• Over 9.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

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Despite nearly being eliminated in Pool play, USA is still the favorite in the WBC odds. On paper, a matchup with Canada shouldn’t be particularly close. The Americans feature a star studded lineup, with elite Major League talent at every position.

Team USA boasts a lineup with a combined 26 All-Star selections. The Canadians meanwhile, have just one. The Americans were dominant in their first three games of the tournament, scoring 29 total runs, while allowing just 9.

Following their victory over Mexico to improve to 3-0, they thought their quarterfinal berth was secure, so they took their foot of the gas against Italy, sitting a handful of starters. That decision almost came back to bite them, but now with a new lease on life, I expect them to make a statement tonight.

The pitching matchup greatly favors Team USA as we’ll discuss, but this Canadian side can certainly punch back. They won Pool A, arguably the tournament’s toughest group, posting the third best slugging percentage and scoring the fifth most runs.

Josh Naylor is the biggest bat in the lineup, but Miami outfielder Owen Caissie has been the team’s breakout star. He’s hitting .500 so far, with three runs, four extra-base hits and a dinger.

They’ll be in tough against USA starter Logan Webb, who surrendered one run and struck out six in his lone outing of the WBC. He’s fresh off a season where he posted career-highs in swinging strike and called strike rate, while his 0.61 HR/9 mark was one of the lowest among qualified starters.

As for the mighty USA bats, there’s just no relief for an opposing pitcher. Sluggers Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber can break a game open at any moment, while there’s speed and more slugging prowess all around them.

That spells trouble for Canadian starter Michael Soroka, who’s coming off a pretty underwhelming 2025 campaign. Soroka’s hard hit rate allowed mark was the highest of his career at 40.4%, while opponent square up contact and blast percentages were up significantly from the previous year.

Soroka’s HR/9 mark was twice as high as Webb’s in 2025, and I expect plenty of balls to leave the yard at his expense, helping this game soar over the total.

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