Houston vs Kansas Predictions: Big 12 Tournament Picks, Odds & Prop Bets

• Houston is a 4.5 to 5.5-point favorite over Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament semifinal on Friday
• Kansas won the regular-season meeting 69-56 on Feb. 23
• See my Houston vs Kansas predictions, picks and odds for the March 13 matchup, below

The Big 12 Tournament semifinal features a heavyweight clash between No. 5 Houston (27-5, 15-4 Big 12) and No. 14 Kansas (23-9, 13-6 Big 12) at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.

Online sportsbooks have installed the Cougars as 4.5 to 5.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, with the spread varying by book. Houston is looking to cement a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while Kansas aims to boost its resume from the projected 3/4-line.

The action tips off at 9:30 pm ET with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Houston vs Kansas predictions, picks and odds.

Houston vs Kansas Predictions

Prediction: Kansas Covers, Houston Wins

My Houston vs Kansas prediction is a tight game that comes down to the final minutes. Houston wins something like 68-64, but Kansas covers the spread.

The Jayhawks already beat this Houston team 69-56 in Lawrence on Feb. 23, snapping a three-game skid in the series. That game wasn’t close. Kansas held Houston to 22-of-50 shooting while controlling the glass 35-28.

This neutral-site matchup in Kansas City is essentially a home game for the Jayhawks. Lawrence is just 40 miles away, and Allen Fieldhouse fans will flood T-Mobile Center. Kansas is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.

Houston vs Kansas Big 12 Tournament Picks

Spread Pick: Kansas +5 (-110 at Caesars)

The best Houston vs Kansas pick is the Jayhawks plus the points. The underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings between these programs.

Freshman star Darryn Peterson is finally healthy and rolling. He dropped 24 points in 37 minutes against TCU in the quarterfinals, playing the entire second half. After missing 11 regular-season games due to injuries, Peterson has played eight straight.

“Throughout the year, my body was holding me back,” Peterson said. “But to finally feel free out there feels great.”

Kansas also has an edge at the line. The Jayhawks made 30-of-37 free throws against TCU, including 26-of-30 in the second half. Houston’s aggressive defense leads to fouls, and Kansas can exploit that.

Total Pick: Under 139.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

The first meeting between these teams finished 69-56, well under this number. Houston ranks second nationally in scoring defense at 62.8 points per game allowed.

The under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four Friday games. The under is also 5-1 in Kansas’ last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Both teams just escaped tight battles where neither shot above 40% from the floor.

Expect a physical, grinding March Madness preview rather than a track meet.

Key Statistical Metrics: Houston vs Kansas

Houston vs Kansas Prop Bets

Prop Pick: Darryn Peterson Over 19.5 Points

Peterson is averaging 19.5 points per game and commands a massive 33.8% usage rate. He handles the ball in virtually every late-clock situation for Kansas.

He just dropped 24 against TCU and has cleared 20+ in back-to-back games for the first time since early January. If the game is close late, Houston will be forced to foul, sending Peterson to the line repeatedly. My favorite Houston vs Kansas prop bet is Peterson’s points over.

Houston vs Kansas Odds

Odds as of March 13. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.

The Houston vs Kansas odds vary by sportsbook, with the spread ranging from Houston -4.5 to -5.5. The moneyline gives Houston an implied win probability around 67%. A $20 bet on the Cougars at -205 would return $9.76 in profit, while a $20 flier on Kansas at +190 pays out $38 if the Jayhawks pull off the upset.

Given the spread variance, shop around for Kansas +5.5 or +5 if you’re backing the underdog.

Houston vs Kansas Trends

Here are the key Houston vs Kansas trends heading into Friday’s Big 12 Tournament semifinal:

Against the Spread: The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Kansas is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. Houston is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral-site games. Both teams are covering at a strong clip in this spot.

Totals: The under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four Friday games. The under is 5-1 in Kansas’ last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The first meeting finished 125 combined points, well under tonight’s number.

Series History: Houston leads the all-time series 3-2, with all five matchups coming since the Cougars joined the Big 12 in 2023-24. Kansas won this year’s regular-season meeting 69-56 at home.